The Sapphire Plan · Kyle, TX 78640

$277,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · SingleFamily · 172 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out the Sapphire floorplan featured in our Prairie Lakes community in Buda, TX. This home offers 1,782 square feet of living space across 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms and 2 stories. As you enter through the front door, you're greeted by one of the secondary bedrooms and full bath. Stepping further into the home you immediately notice the gourmet kitchen with plenty of counter and cabinet space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, white cabinets, and quartz countertops. The kitchen flows into the living area with windows that let in natural light giving the home a bright and open feel. Making your way upstairs, you'll find the primary bedroom with an adjoined bathroom featuring a walk-in shower and large walk-in closet. The two additional bedrooms and full bath are also upstairs. This home comes included with a professionally designed landscape package and a full irrigation system as well as our America's Smart Home® package that offers devices such as the Qolsys IQ Panel, Video Doorbell, Alarm.com app, Honeywell Thermostat, Deako Smart Light Switch, Kwikset Smart lock, and more. Images are representative of plan and may vary as built. Contact us today and find your home at Prairie Lakes.

Key facts

• Qolsys iq panel
• Quartz countertops
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• FULL IRRIGATION SYSTEM
• AMERICA'S SMART HOME PACKAGE
• QOLSYS IQ PANEL

🏗️ New construction. The $277,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $322,870.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $278k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-502 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Camino Real El (math 22% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,492 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 782 students, 76% FRL); R C Barton Middle (math 56% / reading 52%, grade B-, #270 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 816 students, 33% FRL); Jack C Hays H S (math 41% / reading 47%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,062 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2089 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $218,900 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.66%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $322,870
• List price: $277,990
• Delta: -14.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
275 Mustang Lake Cir	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,771 (-1%)	1mo	$322,730	$182	76
280 Mustang Lake Cir	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,780 (-0%)	3mo	$326,990	$184	74
199 Bardwell Way	0.63mi	4/3.0	1,782 (0%)	2mo	$280,840	$158	69
284 Mustang Lake Cir	0.42mi	4/4.0	1,680 (-6%)	2mo	$305,990	$182	65
231 Garcia St	0.51mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,892 (+6%)	2mo	$293,990	$155	57
224 Garcia St	0.53mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,892 (+6%)	3mo	$303,118	$160	55
188 Garcia St	0.56mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,892 (+6%)	4mo	$286,990	$152	53
508 Bull Lake Cir	0.64mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,892 (+6%)	2mo	$287,990	$152	51
470 Bull Lake Cir	0.62mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,892 (+6%)	3mo	$290,990	$154	51
556 Bull Lake Cir	0.68mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,892 (+6%)	2mo	$290,990	$154	49
475 Mustang Lake Cir	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (-10%)	1mo	$304,790	$191	46
1031 Phantom Hill Blvd	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,565 (-12%)	2mo	$252,683	$161	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-90,672
• Equity at exit: $48,141

10-year hold

• IRR: -54.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.60×
• Total profit: $-144,780
• Equity at exit: $27,916

Cash invested: $90,404 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 41 active · 31 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.9 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $292,990 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: 37% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 2089
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,189 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,693
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$404 /mo · $4,843/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,824

Max offer price $250,234

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-279	-5% $-390	+0% $-502	+5% $-614	+10% $-725
Rent	-10% $-675	-5% $-588	+0% $-502	+5% $-416	+10% $-329
Rate	-1.0pp $-339	-0.5pp $-420	base $-502	+0.5pp $-586	+1.0pp $-671

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,717
• Closing costs: $9,686
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
792 Lake Sweetwater Ln Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1615	$2,095	$1.30	35d	1	0.18mi
792 Lake Sweetwater Ln Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1679	$1,999	$1.19	13d	1	0.18mi
143 Shafter St Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,050	$1.22	18d	1	0.22mi
143 Shafter ST Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,100	$1.25	9d	1	0.24mi
143 Santa Teresa Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2042	$2,500	$1.22	93d	1	0.33mi
282 Bull Lake Cir Buda, TX	5.0	2.5	1892	$2,250	$1.19	9d	1	0.50mi
148 Garcia St Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1470	$1,900	$1.29	73d	1	0.59mi
161 Bardwell Way Niederwald, TX	4.0	3.0	1641	$1,925	$1.17	18d	1	0.65mi
164 Peck St Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2159	$2,500	$1.16	93d	1	0.84mi
346 Gladiola Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1692	$1,949	$1.15	93d	1	1.46mi
302 Gladiola Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	3.0	2042	$2,115	$1.04	13d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $277,990 Active 172 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $277,990 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $277,990 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   pricedays on market $277,990 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $276,990 Active 167 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $276,990 Active 164 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $276,990 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $276,990 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $276,990 Active 159 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $276,990 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $276,990 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $276,990 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $276,990 Active 154 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $276,990 Active 153 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $276,990 Active 151 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $276,990 Active 150 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $276,990 Active 149 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $276,990 Active 148 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $276,990 Active 147 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $276,990 Active 146 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $276,990 Active 145 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $276,990 Active 144 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $276,990 Active 143 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $276,990 Active 142 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $276,990 Active 140 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $276,990 Active 139 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $276,990 Active 138 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $276,990 Active 136 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $276,990 Active 135 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $276,990 Active 134 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $276,990 Active 133 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $276,990 Active 132 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $276,990 Active 131 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $276,990 Active 130 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $276,990 Active 129 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $276,990 Active 127 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $276,990 Active 125 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $276,990 Active 124 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $276,990 Active 121 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $276,990 Active 120 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $276,990 Active 119 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $276,990 Active 118 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $276,990 Active 116 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $276,990 Active 112 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $276,990 Active 111 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $276,990 Active 110 DOM
47. 2026-06-05
    days on market $276,990 Active 107 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $276,990 Active 106 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $276,990 Active 105 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $276,990 Active 104 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,268
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,086
• − Property taxes: −$4,843
• − Insurance: −$1,614
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,101
• − Management: −$2,101
• − Depreciation: −$9,393
• Taxable loss: −$11,871
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,849
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,910–$26,730 screening

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior siding and landscaping improvements to enhance curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — Improves kitchen aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Resale Bathroom vanity — Improves bathroom aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Camino Real El F TX #3,492/4,322 Nat'l #33,016/41,679 Middle R C Barton Middle B- TX #270/1,662 Nat'l #2,699/14,009 High Moe And Gene Johnson H S D TX #509/1,632 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Listed $276,990 Zillow