983 Nandena Rd · Gilmer, TX 75644

$174,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1985 1.01 ac lot $116/sqft · 9% above area Est $161k · 9% over ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +3.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Just over one acre tract rurally located between Gilmer and Hawkins. Situated on a quiet country road with little to no traffic. Enjoy the peace and quiet in this three-bedroom, two baths home. This sale is subject to a 5% or $2,500 minimum buyer’s premium pursuant to the auction Terms & Conditions. All bids will be subject to seller approval

Key facts

• 1.01 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.9% in Gilmer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,257 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Gilmer ISD (town): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #372 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,740 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.05%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,675
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: 18.19%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $87,374
• Equity at exit: $157,564

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.38×
• Total profit: $263,634
• Equity at exit: $339,792

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75644

• Home prices YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,427 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,145/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,585

Max offer price $152,907

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-25	-5% $-75	+0% $-124	+5% $-174	+10% $-224
Rent	-10% $-237	-5% $-181	+0% $-124	+5% $-68	+10% $-12
Rate	-1.0pp $-36	-0.5pp $-80	base $-124	+0.5pp $-170	+1.0pp $-216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,900 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,900 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,900 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $174,900 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,900 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,900 Active 9 DOM
18. 2026-02-20
    price $189,900
19. 2026-01-26
    price $199,900
20. 2025-12-27
    price $207,900
21. 2025-11-27
    listed $214,900 Active
22. 2024-10-16
    historical
23. 2024-08-29
    price $225,000
24. 2024-08-29
    price $225,000
25. 2024-08-29
    price $225,000
26. 2024-08-22
    price $230,000
27. 2024-08-21
    price $230,000
28. 2024-08-21
    price $230,000
29. 2024-08-04
    status Active
30. 2024-08-04
    status Active
31. 2024-08-02
    historical
32. 2024-08-01
    historical Active Option Contract
33. 2024-07-30
    listed $235,900 Active
34. 2024-07-30
    listed $235,900 Active
35. 2024-07-28
    listed $235,900 Active
36. 2024-07-12
    listed $235,900 Active
37. 2022-05-06
    soldstatus
38. 2022-04-28
    soldstatus
39. 2021-12-01
    listed $219,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,145 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,201 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$56/yr (+$5/mo · 1.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 50% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,129
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$3,145
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,370
• − Management: −$1,370
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$4,516
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,084
• After-tax cash flow: $-410/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilmer ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820700
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,724
• Composite: 35.04/100
• National rank: #5038
• State rank: #372 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gilmer

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1257
• US rank: #21903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,785

Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.46%
• Current HPI: 300.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.6% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $189,900 LAAR
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $199,900 LAAR
• 2025-12-27 Price Changed $207,900 LAAR
• 2025-11-27 Listed $214,900 LAAR
• 2024-10-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-08-29 Price Changed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2024-08-29 Price Changed $225,000 LAAR
• 2024-08-29 Price Changed $225,000 GTAR
• 2024-08-22 Price Changed $230,000 NTREIS
• 2024-08-21 Price Changed $230,000 GTAR
• 2024-08-21 Price Changed $230,000 LAAR
• 2024-08-04 Relisted — GTAR
• 2024-08-04 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-08-02 Delisted — GTAR
• 2024-08-01 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-07-30 Listed $235,900 LAAR
• 2024-07-30 Listed $235,900 NTREIS
• 2024-07-28 Listed $235,900 GTAR
• 2024-07-12 Listed $235,900 GTAR
• 2022-05-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-04-28 Sold (MLS) — LAAR
• 2021-12-01 Listed $219,900 LAAR

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,145 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.