105 Lantana Dr · Heron Bay, GA 30248

$269,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,877 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 2003 $143/sqft · 17% below area Est $325k · 17% under $96/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to Heron Bay, one of the South's most sought-after neighborhoods! This stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom gem with a bonus room is your ticket to a vibrant lifestyle. Think tennis, golf, swimming, or unwinding by the lake with family and friends. Just a short stroll from exciting community activities. This home is move-in ready, requiring only minor touches to transform it into your ideal retreat. Don't miss out! Reach out to your favorite real estate agent today to schedule a tour and discover your new haven!

Key facts

• Garage
• Community pool
• Built 2003

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($237/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Heron Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#159 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 496 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $137k; list at $269k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,969 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.31%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,167
• List price: $269,000
• Delta: -17.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
164 Lantana Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,857 (-1%)	1mo	$275,000	$148	89
223 Gilliam Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,929 (+3%)	9mo	$289,900	$150	71
239 Gilliam Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,933 (+3%)	12mo	$270,000	$140	69
2728 Sandalwood Cir	0.24mi	3/2.5	2,003 (+7%)	10mo	$285,000	$142	67
118 Chesapeake Bay Drive North Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,801 (-4%)	14mo	$299,990	$167	57
100 Cottage Club Dr	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,828 (-3%)	2mo	$305,000	$167	56
100 Bantry Way Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,827 (-3%)	15mo	$339,990	$186	55
5001 Wolverine Pl	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,997 (+6%)	3mo	$320,000	$160	50
338 Southgate Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,963 (+5%)	15mo	$314,999	$160	48
349 Southgate Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,997 (+6%)	13mo	$305,000	$153	45
342 Southgate Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	2,154 (+15%)	2mo	$320,000	$149	41
407 Black Fox Dr	0.63mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,055 (+10%)	13mo	$400,000	$195	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-44,307
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-44,929
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30248

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 496
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,430 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$281 /mo · $3,372/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,405

Max offer price $269,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 N Chesapeake Bay Dr Locust Grove, GA	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,800	$1.50	24d	1	0.41mi
409 Mazley Dr Locust Grove, GA	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,030	$1.09	1d	1	0.41mi
117 Cottage Club Dr Locust Grove, GA	3.0	3.0	2109	$1,995	$0.95	43d	1	0.72mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $96 · $1,152/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $269,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,000 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $269,000 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    Welcome home to Heron Bay, one of the South's most sought-after neighborhoods! This stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom gem with a bonus room is your ticket to a vibrant lifestyle. Think tennis, golf, swimming, or unwinding by the lake with family and friends. Just a short stroll from exciting community activities. This home is move-in ready, requiring only minor touches to transform it into your ideal retreat. Don't miss out! Reach out to your favorite real estate agent today to schedule a tour and discover your new haven!

15. 2026-04-29
    price $275,000 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    Welcome home to Heron Bay, one of the South's most sought-after neighborhoods! This stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom gem with a bonus room is your ticket to a vibrant lifestyle. Think tennis, golf, swimming, or unwinding by the lake with family and friends. Just a short stroll from exciting community activities. This home is move-in ready, requiring only minor touches to transform it into your ideal retreat. Don't miss out! Reach out to your favorite real estate agent today to schedule a tour and discover your new haven!

16. 2026-03-29
    listed $289,000 New 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    Welcome home to Heron Bay, one of the South's most sought-after neighborhoods! This stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom gem with a bonus room is your ticket to a vibrant lifestyle. Think tennis, golf, swimming, or unwinding by the lake with family and friends. Just a short stroll from exciting community activities. This home is move-in ready, requiring only minor touches to transform it into your ideal retreat. Don't miss out! Reach out to your favorite real estate agent today to schedule a tour and discover your new haven!

17. 2025-07-09
    historical
18. 2025-06-25
    price $283,500
19. 2025-06-08
    status Back On Market
20. 2025-05-25
    status Under Contract
21. 2025-05-01
    price $286,500
22. 2025-04-08
    listed $289,000 New
23. 2003-06-26
    soldstatus $137,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,372 · $281/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,372 · $281/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$3,372
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,333
• − Management: −$2,333
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$4,271
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,025
• After-tax cash flow: $1,262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 1302820
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,594
• Composite: 26.13/100
• National rank: #7279
• State rank: #89 of 174 in GA

Livability — Heron Bay

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #159
• US rank: #10151

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heron Bay, GA
• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 36,038
• Household income: $83,823
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 485.0

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,041 people
• By 2030: 264,369 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 294,459 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 322,249 · +29.4%
• By 2075: 392,310 · +57.5%
• By 2100: 437,836 · +75.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.7) · D 64.5% · R 34.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +37.1pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 29.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.7 2020: D+20.5 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.09%
• Current HPI: 203.5358
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.16%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+96.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $269,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $275,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-29 Listed $289,000 GAMLS
• 2025-07-09 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $283,500 GAMLS
• 2025-06-08 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2025-05-25 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $286,500 GAMLS
• 2025-04-08 Listed $289,000 GAMLS
• 2003-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $137,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,372 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.