407 NW 30th St · Lawton, OK 73505

$94,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1954 7,200 sqft lot Est $130k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Super cute starter home! New roof, updated bathroom, wood laminate flooring, a nice carport and huge backyard. Centrally located. AHS Home Warranty for 1 year. Must see!

Key facts

• Storage room
• Central location
• Large backyard

Tags

• CENTRAL LOCATION
• WOOD LAMINATE FLOORING
• MOLDED FORMICA COUNTER TOPS
• LARGE BACKYARD
• PRIVACY FENCE
• STORAGE ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 6.1% in Lawton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#206 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Lawton (urban): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 270 in OK (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 398 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $76k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.17%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
809 NW 33rd St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (0%)	2mo	$140,000	$117	79
409 NW 30th St	0.01mi	2/1.0	1,100 (-8%)	9mo	$70,000	$64	74
3201 NW Ferris Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+8%)	2mo	$150,000	$115	69
3140 NW Kinyon Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (0%)	3mo	$129,900	$108	69
602 NW 31st St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-8%)	8mo	$67,000	$61	67
3128 NW Kinyon	0.49mi	2/1.0	1,200 (0%)	8mo	$112,500	$94	67
2704 NW Arlington	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (-8%)	9mo	$129,900	$118	61
3801 NW Meadowbrook Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (0%)	8mo	$140,000	$117	60
3138 NW Kinyon Ave	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,100 (-8%)	3mo	$70,000	$64	56
1742 NW Ash Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (0%)	6mo	$100,000	$83	55
1914 NW Cherry Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+8%)	8mo	$140,250	$108	43
3819 NW Lake Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (+8%)	10mo	$125,000	$96	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $4,260
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $36,405
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73505

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 398
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $986/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $784

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $94,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 690-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on marketlisting id $94,900 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-05-12
   listed $108,000 Active
6. 2024-12-11
   listed $107,500 Active
7. 2022-11-22
   soldstatus $76,000
8. 2022-11-17
   soldstatus $76,000 170-char remark

   Show marketing remark (170 chars)

   Super cute starter home! New roof, updated bathroom, wood laminate flooring, a nice carport and huge backyard. Centrally located. AHS Home Warranty for 1 year. Must see!

9. 2022-09-09
   listed $70,000 170-char remark

   Show marketing remark (170 chars)

   Super cute starter home! New roof, updated bathroom, wood laminate flooring, a nice carport and huge backyard. Centrally located. AHS Home Warranty for 1 year. Must see!

10. 2004-07-19
    soldstatus $48,000
11. 1994-07-28
    soldstatus $46,500
12. 1992-06-22
    soldstatus $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $986 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $986 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,503
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$986
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,080
• − Management: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $1,805
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$433
• After-tax cash flow: $2,802/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawton
• NCES district ID: 4017250
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,618
• Composite: 19.68/100
• National rank: #8732
• State rank: #137 of 270 in OK

Livability — Lawton

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #15131

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawton, OK
• County: Comanche County · 96,361 people
• City population: 89,233
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• Population (ZIP): 47,790
• Household income: $58,272
• Rent vs Own: 48.2% rent · 51.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1986.0

Population outlook (Comanche County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,518 people
• By 2030: 124,231 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 122,193 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 120,368 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 120,492 · -3.2%
• By 2100: 123,113 · -1.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 17% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 16% Native American 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comanche

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.3) · D 37.4% · R 60.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: -17.5pp · 2024: -23.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.3 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.88%
• Current HPI: 169.4524
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.14%
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+157.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $108,000 FSBO.com
• 2024-12-11 Listed $107,500 LBRMLS
• 2022-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-17 Sold (MLS) $76,000 LBRMLS
• 2022-09-09 Listed $70,000 LBRMLS
• 2004-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 1994-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records
• 1992-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $986 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.