5010 E Dean Ave · Flagstaff, AZ 86004

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · Manufactured · 81 Days on market

Built 2026 5,534 sqft lot $170/sqft · 37% below area Est $395k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stunning BRAND NEW 3-bedroom home in the highly sought-after Jo Don community -- one of Flagstaff's best-kept secrets! This new construction home offers an open-concept layout, a chef- inspired kitchen with stainless steel appliances, and a natural gas range and furnace for efficient Flagstaff mountain living. Built with upgraded insulation for superior energy efficiency, keeping utility costs low through every season. Step outside to a spacious, fully fenced backyard with breathtaking views of Mt. Elden -- a rare find in Flagstaff. Perfect for entertaining, pets, gardening, or simply enjoying the four-season mountain scenery. The extra-wide driveway accommodates 3+ vehicles with ease, and the community offers dedicated RV/toy storage for outdoor enthusiasts. Unbeatable locati grocery stores, dining, and shopping, with direct access to miles of world-class hiking and mountain biking trails on Mt. Elden and the Flagstaff Urban Trail System. Minutes from downtown Flagstaff, NAU, and Flagstaff Medical Center. Community amenities include a reservable clubhouse for private events. Residency application and background check required through the community office. Size: 28x56 Manufacturer: Clayton Year: 2026 SN: BUC017332AZAAC&BAC Dealer: Investment Builders Financial LLC License: AZ D-8 #8571 Community Space Rent: $1,100/month

Key facts

• Natural gas range
• Dedicated rv storage
• 5,534 sq ft lot

Tags

• CHEF INSPIRED KITCHEN
• NATURAL GAS RANGE
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• DEDICATED RV STORAGE
• DIRECT ACCESS TO HIKING TRAILS

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $250,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$395,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $248 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $235k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.1% in Flagstaff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#167 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, crime D-.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 308 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.25%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $395,000
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -36.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4801 E Kinsey Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-1%)	6mo	$430,000	$295	82
4895 E Allen Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-13%)	2mo	$140,000	$109	73
5300 N Thornton Pl	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,528 (+4%)	14mo	$442,000	$289	69
4879 E Gibson Ave	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,628 (+10%)	1mo	$440,000	$270	63
4873 E Bullwinkle Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-12%)	2mo	$435,000	$336	61
4862 E Lowell Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,692 (+15%)	10mo	$450,000	$266	59
5276 N Thornton Pl	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,628 (+10%)	7mo	$460,000	$283	57
5250 W US Highway 89 -- #84	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-10%)	15mo	$150,900	$114	56
4909 E Bullwinkle Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-8%)	16mo	$330,000	$244	56
4333 E Wintergreen Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+4%)	16mo	$439,900	$286	53
5250 N Us-89 #32	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-13%)	15mo	$81,000	$63	51
6289 N Snowflake Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+6%)	5mo	$435,000	$277	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-28,195
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-18,038
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86004

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5000 N Mall Way Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$2,299	$2.61	44d	7	0.49mi
5404 E Cortland Blvd Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	763	$2,240	$2.94	44d	1	1.13mi
3950 E Philip Ave Flagstaff, AZ	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,600	$1.67	44d	1	1.17mi
5303 E Cortland Blvd Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	763	$2,520	$3.30	44d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $250,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 61 DOM
18. 2026-03-30
    listed $250,000 Active 1358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1358 chars)

    Stunning BRAND NEW 3-bedroom home in the highly sought-after Jo Don community -- one of Flagstaff's best-kept secrets! This new construction home offers an open-concept layout, a chef- inspired kitchen with stainless steel appliances, and a natural gas range and furnace for efficient Flagstaff mountain living. Built with upgraded insulation for superior energy efficiency, keeping utility costs low through every season. Step outside to a spacious, fully fenced backyard with breathtaking views of Mt. Elden -- a rare find in Flagstaff. Perfect for entertaining, pets, gardening, or simply enjoying the four-season mountain scenery. The extra-wide driveway accommodates 3+ vehicles with ease, and the community offers dedicated RV/toy storage for outdoor enthusiasts. Unbeatable locati grocery stores, dining, and shopping, with direct access to miles of world-class hiking and mountain biking trails on Mt. Elden and the Flagstaff Urban Trail System. Minutes from downtown Flagstaff, NAU, and Flagstaff Medical Center. Community amenities include a reservable clubhouse for private events. Residency application and background check required through the community office. Size: 28x56 Manufacturer: Clayton Year: 2026 SN: BUC017332AZAAC&BAC Dealer: Investment Builders Financial LLC License: AZ D-8 #8571 Community Space Rent: $1,100/month

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$1,072
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$257
• After-tax cash flow: $3,230/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagstaff Unified District (4192)
• NCES district ID: 0402860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,510
• Composite: 21.11/100
• National rank: #8437
• State rank: #158 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Flagstaff

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #18308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C- Housing B Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flagstaff, AZ
• County: Coconino County · 91,667 people
• City population: 91,667
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 36,394
• Household income: $81,172
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1475.0

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 13% Native American 12% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -454.67%
• Current HPI: 411.8577
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $250,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $249 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.