3801 Sherwood Dr · Natchez, MS 39120

$30,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 965 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 170 Days on market

Built 1956 7,840 sqft lot $31/sqft · 70% below area ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a true fixer with serious upside. 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, strong rental demand, and excellent ARV potential. Needs roof repair, flooring, and cosmetic updates — priced accordingly for a high-margin flip or cash-flow rental. Perfect for investors ready to move fast, add value, and capitalize on strong ROI. Opportunities like this don't last — bring your crew and your numbers.

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1956

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $754 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.4% vs local median 4.4% in Natchez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#156 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (60%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $26,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 107.65%
• DSCR: 5.79
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $102,120
• List price: $30,000
• Delta: -70.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1301 Westwood Rd	0.10mi	3/1.0	965 (0%)	2mo	$109,000	$113	93
811 Kenwood Ln	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,005 (+4%)	3mo	$105,000	$104	83
12 Maplewood Ln	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (-6%)	1mo	$99,500	$109	81
25 Maplewood Ln	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	951 (-2%)	19mo	$95,000	$100	70
1501 Eastwood Rd	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	897 (-7%)	5mo	$54,500	$61	68
3703 Sherwood Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+14%)	13mo	$106,000	$96	61
19 Beechwood Ln	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	873 (-10%)	12mo	$69,500	$80	59
8 Oakwood Ln	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,076 (+12%)	13mo	$99,000	$92	59
1306 Eastwood Rd	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,061 (+10%)	12mo	$90,000	$85	58
209 Holly Dr	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,032 (+7%)	20mo	$109,500	$106	53
7 Maplewood Ln	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	825 (-14%)	21mo	$110,000	$133	51
302 Holly Dr	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+14%)	24mo	$118,500	$108	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $43,193
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.86×
• Total profit: $99,664
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39120

• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,305 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,291/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $754

Break-even live

Break-even rent $351

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $30,000 Pending 170 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $30,000 Active 167 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $30,000 Active 166 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 163 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $45,000 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $45,000 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $45,000 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 154 DOM
14. 2026-03-27
    price $50,000 393-char remark

    Show marketing remark (393 chars)

    This is a true fixer with serious upside. 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, strong rental demand, and excellent ARV potential. Needs roof repair, flooring, and cosmetic updates — priced accordingly for a high-margin flip or cash-flow rental. Perfect for investors ready to move fast, add value, and capitalize on strong ROI. Opportunities like this don't last — bring your crew and your numbers.

15. 2025-12-27
    listed $75,000 Active 393-char remark

    Show marketing remark (393 chars)

    This is a true fixer with serious upside. 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, strong rental demand, and excellent ARV potential. Needs roof repair, flooring, and cosmetic updates — priced accordingly for a high-margin flip or cash-flow rental. Perfect for investors ready to move fast, add value, and capitalize on strong ROI. Opportunities like this don't last — bring your crew and your numbers.

16. 2019-03-08
    soldstatus $26,500
17. 2019-03-07
    soldstatus 38-char remark

    Show marketing remark (38 chars)

    OWNER IS A LICENSED BROKER IN MS. SOLD

18. 2018-07-27
    listed $59,500 38-char remark

    Show marketing remark (38 chars)

    OWNER IS A LICENSED BROKER IN MS. SOLD

19. 2017-06-30
    soldstatus
20. 2017-06-30
    soldstatus $26,500
21. 2017-05-16
    listed $54,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,291 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,291 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,659
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$1,291
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,253
• − Management: −$1,253
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $9,160
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,198
• After-tax cash flow: $6,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchez-Adams School District
• NCES district ID: 2803030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $28,288
• Composite: 10.41/100
• National rank: #9785
• State rank: #114 of 130 in MS

Livability — Natchez

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #15334

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Natchez, MS
• Population (ZIP): 29,212

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,614 people
• By 2030: 27,405 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 24,914 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 22,554 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 17,096 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 12,156 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 56.5% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+16.1 2016: D+14.7 2012: D+18.0 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.67%
• Current HPI: 112.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $50,000 MLSU
• 2025-12-27 Listed $75,000 MLSU
• 2019-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $26,500 Public Records
• 2019-03-07 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2018-07-27 Listed $59,500 MLSU
• 2017-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $26,500 Public Records
• 2017-06-30 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2017-05-16 Listed $54,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,291 · +22.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.