16246 N 33rd St · Phoenix, AZ 85032

$195,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 116 Days on market

Built 1981 6,361 sqft lot $135/sqft · 20% below area Est $244k · 20% under $90/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Value Property located within Palm Lakes Village a 55-Plus retirement community. Easy parking for 4 cars or RV. Covered parking area has high roof to fit large RV. Covered Patio's on the North and the South side of home. Must see. Great home for the price. Two blocks from the clubhouse. Two Bedrooms.

Key facts

• 6,361 sq ft lot
• 8 parking spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($608/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $130k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,452 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.11%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,284
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -20.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16230 N 33rd St	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$252,500	$175	93
16210 N 32nd Way	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$225,000	$156	88
16440 N 35th St	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,426 (-1%)	1mo	$193,000	$135	86
16230 N 35th Way	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,441 (+0%)	4mo	$200,000	$139	81
3449 E Kings Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,418 (-2%)	5mo	$227,000	$160	77
16215 N 33rd St	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-10%)	6mo	$265,000	$204	75
16443 N 33rd Way	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+9%)	4mo	$375,000	$239	69
16208 N 35th Pl	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,537 (+7%)	2mo	$211,500	$138	68
16225 N 29th St #43	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (-3%)	3mo	$80,000	$57	65
16229 N 35th Pl	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,593 (+11%)	6mo	$339,900	$213	57
16225 N 29th St #59	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	4mo	$55,000	$44	54
2729 E Juniper Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (-8%)	7mo	$175,000	$133	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-33,228
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-43,552
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85032

• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,645 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $656/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,580

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $161	-5% $106	+0% $51	+5% $-5	+10% $-60
Rent	-10% $-79	-5% $-14	+0% $51	+5% $116	+10% $181
Rate	-1.0pp $149	-0.5pp $100	base $51	+0.5pp $0	+1.0pp $-51

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3316 E Tierra Buena Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1621	$2,495	$1.54	19d	1	0.30mi
3027 E Grandview Rd Unit 3027-B Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	912	$1,375	$1.51	9d	1	0.33mi
16225 N 30th St #9 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	968	$1,350	$1.39	25d	1	0.35mi
16402 N 31st St #119 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	933	$1,375	$1.47	5d	1	0.36mi
16402 N 31st St #119 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	933	$1,375	$1.47	19d	1	0.36mi
16015 N 30th St #123 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1426	$1,950	$1.37	23d	1	0.36mi
16021 N 30th St #119 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1426	$1,950	$1.37	25d	1	0.39mi
3003 E Kings Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,800	$1.94	6d	1	0.40mi
15606 N 33rd Pl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1373	$2,225	$1.62	25d	1	0.43mi
3420 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	863	$2,214	$2.56	0d	22	0.45mi
3113 E Danbury Rd #22 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1353	$5,000	$3.70	25d	1	0.50mi
13440 N 44th St Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1102	$1,748	$1.59	11d	1	0.52mi
15434 N 32nd St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,255	$1.50	0d	8	0.53mi
15801 N 29th St #1 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1108	$1,650	$1.49	23d	1	0.54mi
15626 N 29th Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1271	$2,150	$1.69	25d	1	0.57mi
2844 E Marconi Ave Unit 101 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1123	$1,550	$1.38	23d	1	0.58mi
2827 E Le Marche Ave Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	12d	1	0.59mi
2827 E Le Marche Ave Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	4d	1	0.59mi
15601 N 30th St Unit 5 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	950	$1,375	$1.45	16d	1	0.60mi
2846 E Kathleen Rd Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1106	$949	$0.86	25d	1	0.60mi
2846 E Kathleen Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$949	$0.86	25d	1	0.60mi
2854 E Phelps Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,811	$1.22	23d	1	0.60mi
2826 E Monte Cristo Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	929	$1,295	$1.39	16d	1	0.60mi
2826 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	929	$1,295	$1.39	18d	1	0.60mi
2837 E Marconi Ave Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$975	$1.08	25d	1	0.60mi
2807 E Paradise Ln Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1124	$1,475	$1.31	25d	1	0.63mi
2807 E Le Marche Ave Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1157	$1,099	$0.95	25d	1	0.65mi
2807 E Le Marche Ave Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1157	$1,074	$0.93	16d	1	0.65mi
15636 N 29th St #1 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1698	$2,399	$1.41	19d	1	0.65mi
2807 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$865	$0.96	25d	1	0.65mi
2821 E Kathleen Rd Unit 101 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1106	$900	$0.81	25d	1	0.66mi
2821 E Kathleen Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$900	$0.81	25d	1	0.66mi
2802 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	929	$950	$1.02	25d	1	0.66mi
2819 E Marconi Ave Unit 201 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$950	$1.06	25d	1	0.66mi
2807 E Marconi Ave Unit 101 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	967	$975	$1.01	0d	1	0.67mi
2834 E Tracy Ln #1 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1254	$1,550	$1.24	25d	1	0.68mi
3316 E Helena Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,000	$1.70	25d	1	0.72mi
2713 E Juniper Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.5	1612	$1,799	$1.12	9d	1	0.77mi
2713 E Juniper Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,799	$1.12	15d	1	0.77mi
2833 E Beck Ln #4 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1110	$1,880	$1.69	0d	1	0.79mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $195,000
17. 2026-05-03
    price $200,000
18. 2026-04-21
    price $215,000
19. 2026-04-16
    price $225,000
20. 2026-04-13
    price $250,000
21. 2026-04-07
    price $275,000
22. 2026-04-01
    price $295,000
23. 2026-03-18
    price $310,000
24. 2026-02-25
    listed $325,000 Active
25. 2026-02-25
    price $325,000
26. 2024-04-23
    soldstatus $280,000
27. 2024-04-19
    soldstatus $275,000 Closed 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Great Value Property located within Palm Lakes Village a 55-Plus retirement community. Easy parking for 4 cars or RV. Covered parking area has high roof to fit large RV. Covered Patio's on the North and the South side of home. Must see. Great home for the price. Two blocks from the clubhouse. Two Bedrooms.

28. 2024-04-16
    status Pending 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Great Value Property located within Palm Lakes Village a 55-Plus retirement community. Easy parking for 4 cars or RV. Covered parking area has high roof to fit large RV. Covered Patio's on the North and the South side of home. Must see. Great home for the price. Two blocks from the clubhouse. Two Bedrooms.

29. 2024-04-16
    listed $275,000 Active 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Great Value Property located within Palm Lakes Village a 55-Plus retirement community. Easy parking for 4 cars or RV. Covered parking area has high roof to fit large RV. Covered Patio's on the North and the South side of home. Must see. Great home for the price. Two blocks from the clubhouse. Two Bedrooms.

30. 2024-04-15
    soldstatus $275,000 Closed 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Great Value Property located within Palm Lakes Village a 55-Plus retirement community. Easy parking for 4 cars or RV. Covered parking area has high roof to fit large RV. Covered Patio's on the North and the South side of home. Must see. Great home for the price. Two blocks from the clubhouse. Two Bedrooms.

31. 2024-04-15
    status Pending 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Great Value Property located within Palm Lakes Village a 55-Plus retirement community. Easy parking for 4 cars or RV. Covered parking area has high roof to fit large RV. Covered Patio's on the North and the South side of home. Must see. Great home for the price. Two blocks from the clubhouse. Two Bedrooms.

32. 2024-02-27
    listed $275,000 Active 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Great Value Property located within Palm Lakes Village a 55-Plus retirement community. Easy parking for 4 cars or RV. Covered parking area has high roof to fit large RV. Covered Patio's on the North and the South side of home. Must see. Great home for the price. Two blocks from the clubhouse. Two Bedrooms.

33. 1989-06-02
    soldstatus $52,000
34. 1978-11-29
    soldstatus $38,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $656 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,287 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$631/yr (+$53/mo · 96.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$656
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,579
• − Management: −$1,579
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$2,730
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$655
• After-tax cash flow: $1,263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 70,839
• Household income: $78,643
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2887.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 17% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 21% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -488.65%
• Current HPI: 339.4181
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.46%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+413.2% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $195,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $200,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $215,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $225,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $250,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $275,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $295,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $310,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $325,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $325,000 ARMLS
• 2024-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 2024-04-19 Sold (MLS) $275,000 ARMLS
• 2024-04-16 Pending — ARMLS
• 2024-04-16 Listed $275,000 ARMLS
• 2024-04-15 Sold (MLS) $275,000 ARMLS
• 2024-04-15 Pending — ARMLS
• 2024-02-27 Listed $275,000 ARMLS
• 1989-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 1978-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $656 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.