37 Turkey Ridge Rd · Ezel, KY 40387

$69,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · SingleFamily · 73 Days on market

Fair condition 0.46 ac lot $99/sqft · 49% below area Est $136k · 49% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

PHOTOS UPDATED: Diamond in the rough, a home away from home, or the perfect entry-level cabin to make your own, this property offers endless potential. Conveniently located just 15 minutes from the lake and only 30 minutes from the Red River Gorge, it's an ideal spot for both relaxation and adventure. The cabin features a thoughtful layout designed for comfortable weekend getaways, including a welcoming dining area perfect for slow mornings and shared meals. Enjoy peaceful surroundings from the covered front porch or unwind on the second-story side porch. Inside, you'll find generously sized bedrooms, larger than many cabins in the area, providing ample space for guests or family. Whether you're looking for a personal retreat, an investment opportunity, or a place to customize and make your own, this property is full of potential.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Thoughtful layout
• 0.46 acre lot

Tags

• THOUGHTFUL LAYOUT
• WELCOMING DINING AREA
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SECOND-STORY SIDE PORCH
• GENEROUSLY SIZED BEDROOMS
• AMPLE SPACE FOR GUESTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($804 rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $65k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.4% in Ezel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#375 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Menifee County (rural): math 21% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #113 of 165 in KY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Menifee County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $64,859 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.82%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,060
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: -49.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
96 Long Run Rd	0.51mi	2/1.0	768 (+10%)	11mo	$99,000	$129	51
310 Turkey Ridge Rd	0.40mi	2/1.0	800 (+14%)	12mo	$129,900	$162	48
368 Twin Oaks Rd	0.40mi	2/1.0	780 (+11%)	22mo	$147,500	$189	44
69 Side Run Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	784 (+12%)	4mo	$147,000	$188	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-1,099
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $12,060
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40387

• Home prices YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $804 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$86 /mo · $1,035/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $604

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $69,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    price $79,000 842-char remark

    Show marketing remark (842 chars)

    PHOTOS UPDATED: Diamond in the rough, a home away from home, or the perfect entry-level cabin to make your own, this property offers endless potential. Conveniently located just 15 minutes from the lake and only 30 minutes from the Red River Gorge, it's an ideal spot for both relaxation and adventure. The cabin features a thoughtful layout designed for comfortable weekend getaways, including a welcoming dining area perfect for slow mornings and shared meals. Enjoy peaceful surroundings from the covered front porch or unwind on the second-story side porch. Inside, you'll find generously sized bedrooms, larger than many cabins in the area, providing ample space for guests or family. Whether you're looking for a personal retreat, an investment opportunity, or a place to customize and make your own, this property is full of potential.

17. 2026-03-31
    listed $89,000 Active 842-char remark

    Show marketing remark (842 chars)

    PHOTOS UPDATED: Diamond in the rough, a home away from home, or the perfect entry-level cabin to make your own, this property offers endless potential. Conveniently located just 15 minutes from the lake and only 30 minutes from the Red River Gorge, it's an ideal spot for both relaxation and adventure. The cabin features a thoughtful layout designed for comfortable weekend getaways, including a welcoming dining area perfect for slow mornings and shared meals. Enjoy peaceful surroundings from the covered front porch or unwind on the second-story side porch. Inside, you'll find generously sized bedrooms, larger than many cabins in the area, providing ample space for guests or family. Whether you're looking for a personal retreat, an investment opportunity, or a place to customize and make your own, this property is full of potential.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$1,035
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$772
• − Management: −$772
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $849
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$204
• After-tax cash flow: $1,693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. The rusty roof and weathered siding are major issues that need immediate attention.

Repairs flagged

• Major Rusty metal roof — Structural damage
• Major Weathered siding — Needs replacement
• Major Exposed insulation — Structural issues
• Major Exposed plumbing — Safety hazard

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New roof — Improves structural integrity and appearance
• Resale New siding — Enhances curb appeal and durability
• Resale New flooring — Updates interior and adds value
• Both Painting and repairs — Improves appearance and functionality
• Both New HVAC system — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Rusty metal roof · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Weathered siding · Needs replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exposed insulation · Structural issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exposed plumbing · Safety hazard	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale New roof — Improves structural integrity and appearance ↑
• Resale New siding — Enhances curb appeal and durability ↑
• Resale New flooring — Updates interior and adds value ↑
• Both Painting and repairs — Improves appearance and functionality ↑
• Both New HVAC system — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Menifee County
• NCES district ID: 2104080
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $32,414
• Composite: 24.86/100
• National rank: #7587
• State rank: #113 of 165 in KY

Livability — Ezel

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #375
• US rank: #17739

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,805

Population outlook (Menifee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,403 people
• By 2030: 6,264 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 5,790 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 5,037 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 3,738 · -41.6%
• By 2100: 2,519 · -60.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Menifee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.7) · D 20.2% · R 77.9% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -62.6pp toward R · 2008: 4.9pp · 2024: -57.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.7 2020: R+50.3 2016: R+47.1 2012: R+16.8 2008: D+4.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.58%
• Current HPI: 215.8197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-11.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $79,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $89,000 ImagineMLS