844 Sunflower Rd · Lavon, TX 75166

$259,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,335 sqft · SingleFamily · 55 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 4,800 sqft lot $195/sqft · 8% below area Est $283k · 8% under $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The birch tree represents new beginnings and what better place to start anew than with a floor plan bearing the same name? Invite new neighbors over for a housewarming party featuring stuffed mushrooms. The secret ingredient is the gourmet kitchen you used to make them in. There's plenty of room to entertain in the airy great room, but with the patio door open, guests can enjoy fresh air. When conversation turns to work, take them to see the bedroom you converted into a home office. The spacious closet is perfect for storing supplies. After the party, snuggle with your spouse in the lovely primary suite. You made some great new friends today.

Key facts

• Patio door
• Primary suite
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• AIRY GREAT ROOM
• PATIO DOOR
• HOME OFFICE
• SPACIOUS CLOSET
• PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include community pool, greenbelt, park, playground, sidewalks and other amenities
• Financial info: Second mortgage: none; Loan type: Treat As Clear
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (annual fee); HOA fee covers insurance, grounds maintenance, and management; Neighborhood Management, Inc handles HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener and side-by-side layout; 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Curbs; Sidewalk; Other utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; New construction (2025); Smart home features included; Property in Trails of Lavon subdivision
• Construction: Brick, rock/stone, and siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; New construction completed in 2025
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Gutters; Exterior lighting; Gray water system

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Pantry; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level; Two additional bedrooms on main level (total 3 bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Cable TV available; Other
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Lavon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nesmith El (math 46% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,097 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 768 students, 44% FRL); Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 640 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,135 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.58%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,990
• List price: $259,990
• Delta: -8.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1230 Bellflower Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,335 (0%)	1mo	$272,990	$204	95
872 Sunflower Rd	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,237 (-7%)	2mo	$267,990	$217	84
822 Sunflower	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+10%)	0mo	$269,854	$183	81
881 River Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,503 (+13%)	1mo	$282,990	$188	77
850 Sunflower Rd	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,503 (+13%)	2mo	$279,990	$186	77
868 Sunflower Rd	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+13%)	2mo	$282,990	$188	76
858 River Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+13%)	1mo	$282,990	$188	75
971 Dahlia Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,335 (0%)	2mo	$270,990	$203	75
947 Dahlia Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,335 (0%)	3mo	$269,990	$202	74
521 Epiphany Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,429 (+7%)	2mo	$259,990	$182	66
965 Dahlia Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-8%)	2mo	$259,990	$211	62
549 Epiphany Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,429 (+7%)	2mo	$268,990	$188	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-48,169
• Equity at exit: $38,765

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-49,535
• Equity at exit: $22,479

Cash invested: $72,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 640
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,221 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,900/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,343

Max offer price $246,118

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $84	-5% $-6	+0% $-96	+5% $-186	+10% $-276
Rent	-10% $-271	-5% $-184	+0% $-96	+5% $-8	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $35	-0.5pp $-30	base $-96	+0.5pp $-163	+1.0pp $-232

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,998
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
872 Sunflower Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1237	$2,000	$1.62	9d	1	0.05mi
858 River Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,200	$1.46	18d	1	0.07mi
759 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1827	$2,000	$1.09	14d	1	0.38mi
684 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,850	$1.13	45d	1	0.39mi
600 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,300	$1.26	45d	1	0.44mi
575 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	17d	1	0.45mi
557 London Dr Unit 557LD Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	9d	1	0.47mi
946 Olive Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$2,650	$1.63	9d	1	0.47mi
536 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	17d	1	0.48mi
787 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1429	$1,900	$1.33	45d	1	0.49mi
744 Devonshire Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,849	$1.16	8d	1	0.50mi
772 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,850	$1.27	45d	1	0.52mi
509 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	45d	1	0.54mi
760 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1779	$3,000	$1.69	45d	1	0.58mi
778 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,750	$1.07	14d	1	0.61mi
766 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$6,200	$3.44	4d	1	0.62mi
755 Revere Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1829	$2,100	$1.15	26d	1	0.72mi
393 Orbit Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,750	$1.38	20d	1	0.93mi
382 Armstrong Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1308	$1,795	$1.37	22d	1	0.94mi
387 Orbit Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1361	$1,775	$1.30	18d	1	0.94mi
366 Armstrong Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,750	$1.38	26d	1	0.95mi
365 Orbit Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1361	$1,795	$1.32	4d	1	0.96mi
366 Schirra Ct Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	45d	1	0.98mi
355 Armstrong Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,695	$1.34	26d	1	0.98mi
345 Orbit Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,685	$1.33	45d	1	0.98mi
341 Orbit Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1361	$1,795	$1.32	45d	1	0.99mi
339 Orbit Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1361	$1,795	$1.32	45d	1	1.00mi
332 Schirra Ct Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,695	$1.41	22d	1	1.02mi
332 Schirra Ct Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,695	$1.41	26d	1	1.02mi
315 Orbit Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,750	$1.38	45d	1	1.05mi
305 Orbit Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,695	$1.34	45d	1	1.07mi
471 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1645	$1,950	$1.19	45d	1	1.26mi
476 Eisenhower Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,875	$1.21	22d	1	1.32mi
436 Grant Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,299	$1.31	6d	1	1.32mi
590 Arthur Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,850	$1.19	45d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $259,990 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,990 Active 52 DOM

   Show marketing remark (650 chars)

   The birch tree represents new beginnings and what better place to start anew than with a floor plan bearing the same name? Invite new neighbors over for a housewarming party featuring stuffed mushrooms. The secret ingredient is the gourmet kitchen you used to make them in. There's plenty of room to entertain in the airy great room, but with the patio door open, guests can enjoy fresh air. When conversation turns to work, take them to see the bedroom you converted into a home office. The spacious closet is perfect for storing supplies. After the party, snuggle with your spouse in the lovely primary suite. You made some great new friends today.

3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,990 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,990 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,990 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,990 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,990 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,990 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,990 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,990 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $269,990 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,990 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,990 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,990 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,990 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-04-27
    listed $272,990 Active 719-char remark
17. 2026-04-23
    listed $272,990 Active 650-char remark

    Show marketing remark (650 chars)

    The birch tree represents new beginnings and what better place to start anew than with a floor plan bearing the same name? Invite new neighbors over for a housewarming party featuring stuffed mushrooms. The secret ingredient is the gourmet kitchen you used to make them in. There's plenty of room to entertain in the airy great room, but with the patio door open, guests can enjoy fresh air. When conversation turns to work, take them to see the bedroom you converted into a home office. The spacious closet is perfect for storing supplies. After the party, snuggle with your spouse in the lovely primary suite. You made some great new friends today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,563
• − Property taxes: −$3,900
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,132
• − Management: −$2,132
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$7,563
• Taxable loss: −$5,583
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,340
• After-tax cash flow: $190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with modern updates and a well-maintained exterior. It's ready for immediate move-in and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint to enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lavon, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 41.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $269,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-27 Listed $272,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $272,990 Zillow