116 Welch Dr · West Livingston, TX 77351

$83,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2021 0.42 ac lot $61/sqft · 61% below area ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your vision to life on this unrestricted, unfinished 2 bedroom 2 bath home on a cleared lot just under half an acre. Property features a backyard shed with a 50 amp exterior breaker ideal for RV or other use. Newer exterior paint. Power pole installed and home currently has one circuit in place. Spacious upstairs loft adds to the potential. Great opportunity to finish out and make it your own! Just 10 minutes to restaurants, shopping, public boat ramps, Lake Livingston, and grocery store such as HEB and Brookshire Brothers!

Key facts

• 0.42 acre lot
• Built 2021
• Listed 23 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $83k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 2.4% in West Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,501 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1202 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $574 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,755 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.30%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $212,914
• List price: $83,000
• Delta: -61.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
116 Welch Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,368 (0%)	1mo	$83,000	$61	99
202 Spring Creek Loop	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,166 (-15%)	0mo	$210,000	$180	67
144 Coway Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (-11%)	13mo	$115,000	$95	60
409 Coway Rd	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-12%)	6mo	$254,000	$212	57
174 Magnolia Crk	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (-11%)	24mo	$89,500	$74	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $15,320
• Equity at exit: $12,376

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $50,471
• Equity at exit: $7,176

Cash invested: $23,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1202
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,320 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,456/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $748

Max offer price $83,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $498	-5% $475	+0% $451	+5% $428	+10% $404
Rent	-10% $347	-5% $399	+0% $451	+5% $503	+10% $555
Rate	-1.0pp $493	-0.5pp $472	base $451	+0.5pp $430	+1.0pp $408

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,750
• Closing costs: $2,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   Bring your vision to life on this unrestricted, unfinished 2 bedroom 2 bath home on a cleared lot just under half an acre. Property features a backyard shed with a 50 amp exterior breaker ideal for RV or other use. Newer exterior paint. Power pole installed and home currently has one circuit in place. Spacious upstairs loft adds to the potential. Great opportunity to finish out and make it your own! Just 10 minutes to restaurants, shopping, public boat ramps, Lake Livingston, and grocery store such as HEB and Brookshire Brothers!

2. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   Bring your vision to life on this unrestricted, unfinished 2 bedroom 2 bath home on a cleared lot just under half an acre. Property features a backyard shed with a 50 amp exterior breaker ideal for RV or other use. Newer exterior paint. Power pole installed and home currently has one circuit in place. Spacious upstairs loft adds to the potential. Great opportunity to finish out and make it your own! Just 10 minutes to restaurants, shopping, public boat ramps, Lake Livingston, and grocery store such as HEB and Brookshire Brothers!

3. 2026-04-21
   status Active 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   Bring your vision to life on this unrestricted, unfinished 2 bedroom 2 bath home on a cleared lot just under half an acre. Property features a backyard shed with a 50 amp exterior breaker ideal for RV or other use. Newer exterior paint. Power pole installed and home currently has one circuit in place. Spacious upstairs loft adds to the potential. Great opportunity to finish out and make it your own! Just 10 minutes to restaurants, shopping, public boat ramps, Lake Livingston, and grocery store such as HEB and Brookshire Brothers!

4. 2026-04-16
   historical 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   Bring your vision to life on this unrestricted, unfinished 2 bedroom 2 bath home on a cleared lot just under half an acre. Property features a backyard shed with a 50 amp exterior breaker ideal for RV or other use. Newer exterior paint. Power pole installed and home currently has one circuit in place. Spacious upstairs loft adds to the potential. Great opportunity to finish out and make it your own! Just 10 minutes to restaurants, shopping, public boat ramps, Lake Livingston, and grocery store such as HEB and Brookshire Brothers!

5. 2026-04-16
   historical $83,000 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   Bring your vision to life on this unrestricted, unfinished 2 bedroom 2 bath home on a cleared lot just under half an acre. Property features a backyard shed with a 50 amp exterior breaker ideal for RV or other use. Newer exterior paint. Power pole installed and home currently has one circuit in place. Spacious upstairs loft adds to the potential. Great opportunity to finish out and make it your own! Just 10 minutes to restaurants, shopping, public boat ramps, Lake Livingston, and grocery store such as HEB and Brookshire Brothers!

6. 2022-12-16
   soldstatus Sold 709-char remark

   Show marketing remark (709 chars)

   RARE OPPORTUNITY!! This unfinished home gives you the option to add the number of bedrooms & baths that suits you. It was originally planned for 3 bedrooms 2 baths and a loft upstairs but can be finished out to suit your particular needs - so many options here. Many of the materials are included. A very short 8 minutes to Blanchard Public Boat Ramp on Lake Livingston, 7 miles to Downtown Livingston, 1 minute to Triple J Lanes Bowling, 13 miles to Naskila Gaming Casino, and a short 8 miles to Onalaska- the heart of LAKE LIVINGSTON. Close to many restaurants, local shopping, & entertainment. Great neighborhood and PRIME LOCATION. Don’t miss this one- CALL TODAY TO SET UP YOUR SHOWING!!

7. 2022-12-16
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (709 chars)

   RARE OPPORTUNITY!! This unfinished home gives you the option to add the number of bedrooms & baths that suits you. It was originally planned for 3 bedrooms 2 baths and a loft upstairs but can be finished out to suit your particular needs - so many options here. Many of the materials are included. A very short 8 minutes to Blanchard Public Boat Ramp on Lake Livingston, 7 miles to Downtown Livingston, 1 minute to Triple J Lanes Bowling, 13 miles to Naskila Gaming Casino, and a short 8 miles to Onalaska- the heart of LAKE LIVINGSTON. Close to many restaurants, local shopping, & entertainment. Great neighborhood and PRIME LOCATION. Don’t miss this one- CALL TODAY TO SET UP YOUR SHOWING!!

8. 2022-12-07
   status Pending 709-char remark

   Show marketing remark (709 chars)

   RARE OPPORTUNITY!! This unfinished home gives you the option to add the number of bedrooms & baths that suits you. It was originally planned for 3 bedrooms 2 baths and a loft upstairs but can be finished out to suit your particular needs - so many options here. Many of the materials are included. A very short 8 minutes to Blanchard Public Boat Ramp on Lake Livingston, 7 miles to Downtown Livingston, 1 minute to Triple J Lanes Bowling, 13 miles to Naskila Gaming Casino, and a short 8 miles to Onalaska- the heart of LAKE LIVINGSTON. Close to many restaurants, local shopping, & entertainment. Great neighborhood and PRIME LOCATION. Don’t miss this one- CALL TODAY TO SET UP YOUR SHOWING!!

9. 2022-12-06
   price $75,000 709-char remark

   Show marketing remark (709 chars)

   RARE OPPORTUNITY!! This unfinished home gives you the option to add the number of bedrooms & baths that suits you. It was originally planned for 3 bedrooms 2 baths and a loft upstairs but can be finished out to suit your particular needs - so many options here. Many of the materials are included. A very short 8 minutes to Blanchard Public Boat Ramp on Lake Livingston, 7 miles to Downtown Livingston, 1 minute to Triple J Lanes Bowling, 13 miles to Naskila Gaming Casino, and a short 8 miles to Onalaska- the heart of LAKE LIVINGSTON. Close to many restaurants, local shopping, & entertainment. Great neighborhood and PRIME LOCATION. Don’t miss this one- CALL TODAY TO SET UP YOUR SHOWING!!

10. 2022-11-17
    listed $93,900 Active 709-char remark

    Show marketing remark (709 chars)

    RARE OPPORTUNITY!! This unfinished home gives you the option to add the number of bedrooms & baths that suits you. It was originally planned for 3 bedrooms 2 baths and a loft upstairs but can be finished out to suit your particular needs - so many options here. Many of the materials are included. A very short 8 minutes to Blanchard Public Boat Ramp on Lake Livingston, 7 miles to Downtown Livingston, 1 minute to Triple J Lanes Bowling, 13 miles to Naskila Gaming Casino, and a short 8 miles to Onalaska- the heart of LAKE LIVINGSTON. Close to many restaurants, local shopping, & entertainment. Great neighborhood and PRIME LOCATION. Don’t miss this one- CALL TODAY TO SET UP YOUR SHOWING!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,456 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,519 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$63/yr (+$5/mo · 4.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,834
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,649
• − Property taxes: −$1,456
• − Insurance: −$415
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,267
• − Management: −$1,267
• − Depreciation: −$2,415
• Taxable income: $4,366
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,048
• After-tax cash flow: $4,367/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Livingston

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1501
• US rank: #25668

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Coming Soon $83,000 HARMLS
• 2022-12-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-12-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-12-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-12-06 Price Changed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2022-11-17 Listed $93,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+45.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,456 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.