254 Capitan Rd · Roswell, NM 88201

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,373 sqft · Manufactured public records · 150 Days on market

Built 1998 36 ac lot ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for land, privacy, and opportunity? This property delivers it all! Sitting on 36.25 sprawling acres, this home has already been remodeled, giving you a head start all that’s left is adding your own finishing touches to make it truly yours. Enjoy endless views, peaceful quietness, and the kind of serenity only wide-open New Mexico land can offer. Whether you’re dreaming of room to roam, space for animals, or simply escaping the noise you’ll be home sweet home in no time!

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Endless views
• Sprawling acres

Tags

• SPRAWLING ACRES
• REMODELED
• ENDLESS VIEWS
• WIDE-OPEN NEW MEXICO LAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $338 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#8 in NM, #4,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Roswell Independent Schools (town): math 11% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #16 of 29 in NM (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 88 units permitted in Chaves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.35%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,439
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $35,480
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88201

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,623 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,195

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-27
   price $155,000 500-char remark

   Show marketing remark (500 chars)

   Looking for land, privacy, and opportunity? This property delivers it all! Sitting on 36.25 sprawling acres, this home has already been remodeled, giving you a head start all that’s left is adding your own finishing touches to make it truly yours. Enjoy endless views, peaceful quietness, and the kind of serenity only wide-open New Mexico land can offer. Whether you’re dreaming of room to roam, space for animals, or simply escaping the noise you’ll be home sweet home in no time!

2. 2026-02-26
   price $165,000 500-char remark

   Show marketing remark (500 chars)

   Looking for land, privacy, and opportunity? This property delivers it all! Sitting on 36.25 sprawling acres, this home has already been remodeled, giving you a head start all that’s left is adding your own finishing touches to make it truly yours. Enjoy endless views, peaceful quietness, and the kind of serenity only wide-open New Mexico land can offer. Whether you’re dreaming of room to roam, space for animals, or simply escaping the noise you’ll be home sweet home in no time!

3. 2025-12-26
   listed $175,000 Active 500-char remark

   Show marketing remark (500 chars)

   Looking for land, privacy, and opportunity? This property delivers it all! Sitting on 36.25 sprawling acres, this home has already been remodeled, giving you a head start all that’s left is adding your own finishing touches to make it truly yours. Enjoy endless views, peaceful quietness, and the kind of serenity only wide-open New Mexico land can offer. Whether you’re dreaming of room to roam, space for animals, or simply escaping the noise you’ll be home sweet home in no time!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $798 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,240 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$442/yr (+$37/mo · 55.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$798
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,558
• − Management: −$1,558
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $1,596
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$383
• After-tax cash flow: $3,677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roswell Independent Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502250
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 23.00%
• Median HH income: $38,848
• Composite: 26.21/100
• National rank: #7262
• State rank: #16 of 29 in NM

Livability — Roswell

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #4339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chaves County · 56,277 people
• City population: 56,277
• Metro: Roswell, NM
• Population (ZIP): 27,524
• Household income: $61,780
• Rent vs Own: 24.5% rent · 75.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 603.0

Population outlook (Chaves County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,122 people
• By 2030: 66,351 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 66,818 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 66,928 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 65,474 · -1.0%
• By 2100: 58,943 · -10.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 44% Two or more races 16% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chaves

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.8) · D 26.8% · R 71.6% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.2pp toward R · 2008: -24.7pp · 2024: -44.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.8 2020: R+41.3 2016: R+36.4 2012: R+32.4 2008: R+24.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.52%
• Current HPI: 149.3526
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.32%
• Metro: Roswell, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-11.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $155,000 NMMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $165,000 NMMLS
• 2025-12-26 Listed $175,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2017): $798 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.