1767 Willow Oak Rd · Union Grove, TX 75647

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 235 Days on market

Built 1981 2.00 ac lot $86/sqft · 36% below area Est $289k · 38% under ↓ 14% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New, improved price--seller says bring an offer! Union Grove ISD? Check. Little bit of land? Check. Detached covered parking with enclosed storage? Got that too! Yeah, it needs a little bit of dressing up, but the bones in the home are good--you've got a durable and stylish metal roof, a 3-year-old AC unit, a couple of acres to roam, and a nice-sized house with room for everyone! It's perfectly habitable as-is, but with a little bit of time, money, and vision, this home has the potential to be a true show-stopper--a comfortable, warm, inviting home. Come see it today!

Key facts

• Enclosed storage
• Metal roof
• 3 year old ac unit

Tags

• DETACHED COVERED PARKING
• ENCLOSED STORAGE
• METAL ROOF
• 3 YEAR OLD AC UNIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,363 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Union Grove ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #117 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.23%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,000
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -37.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1467 Willow Oak Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,886 (-10%)	5mo	$220,000	$117	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-17,800
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-747
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75647

• Home prices YoY: -8.2%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,829 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$248 /mo · $2,975/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,604

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $280	-5% $229	+0% $178	+5% $127	+10% $76
Rent	-10% $33	-5% $106	+0% $178	+5% $250	+10% $322
Rate	-1.0pp $268	-0.5pp $224	base $178	+0.5pp $131	+1.0pp $84

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $180,000 Active 235 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 233 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 232 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 231 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 230 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 229 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 228 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $180,000 Active 227 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 224 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $180,000 Active 223 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $180,000 Active 222 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 221 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 218 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 217 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 216 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 215 DOM
17. 2026-03-17
    status Pending 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    New, improved price--seller says bring an offer! Union Grove ISD? Check. Little bit of land? Check. Detached covered parking with enclosed storage? Got that too! Yeah, it needs a little bit of dressing up, but the bones in the home are good--you've got a durable and stylish metal roof, a 3-year-old AC unit, a couple of acres to roam, and a nice-sized house with room for everyone! It's perfectly habitable as-is, but with a little bit of time, money, and vision, this home has the potential to be a true show-stopper--a comfortable, warm, inviting home. Come see it today!

18. 2026-02-16
    price $180,000 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    New, improved price--seller says bring an offer! Union Grove ISD? Check. Little bit of land? Check. Detached covered parking with enclosed storage? Got that too! Yeah, it needs a little bit of dressing up, but the bones in the home are good--you've got a durable and stylish metal roof, a 3-year-old AC unit, a couple of acres to roam, and a nice-sized house with room for everyone! It's perfectly habitable as-is, but with a little bit of time, money, and vision, this home has the potential to be a true show-stopper--a comfortable, warm, inviting home. Come see it today!

19. 2026-02-16
    price $180,000 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    New, improved price--seller says bring an offer! Union Grove ISD? Check. Little bit of land? Check. Detached covered parking with enclosed storage? Got that too! Yeah, it needs a little bit of dressing up, but the bones in the home are good--you've got a durable and stylish metal roof, a 3-year-old AC unit, a couple of acres to roam, and a nice-sized house with room for everyone! It's perfectly habitable as-is, but with a little bit of time, money, and vision, this home has the potential to be a true show-stopper--a comfortable, warm, inviting home. Come see it today!

20. 2026-01-30
    price $194,900 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    New, improved price--seller says bring an offer! Union Grove ISD? Check. Little bit of land? Check. Detached covered parking with enclosed storage? Got that too! Yeah, it needs a little bit of dressing up, but the bones in the home are good--you've got a durable and stylish metal roof, a 3-year-old AC unit, a couple of acres to roam, and a nice-sized house with room for everyone! It's perfectly habitable as-is, but with a little bit of time, money, and vision, this home has the potential to be a true show-stopper--a comfortable, warm, inviting home. Come see it today!

21. 2026-01-30
    price $194,900 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    New, improved price--seller says bring an offer! Union Grove ISD? Check. Little bit of land? Check. Detached covered parking with enclosed storage? Got that too! Yeah, it needs a little bit of dressing up, but the bones in the home are good--you've got a durable and stylish metal roof, a 3-year-old AC unit, a couple of acres to roam, and a nice-sized house with room for everyone! It's perfectly habitable as-is, but with a little bit of time, money, and vision, this home has the potential to be a true show-stopper--a comfortable, warm, inviting home. Come see it today!

22. 2026-01-06
    listed $195,000 Active 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    New, improved price--seller says bring an offer! Union Grove ISD? Check. Little bit of land? Check. Detached covered parking with enclosed storage? Got that too! Yeah, it needs a little bit of dressing up, but the bones in the home are good--you've got a durable and stylish metal roof, a 3-year-old AC unit, a couple of acres to roam, and a nice-sized house with room for everyone! It's perfectly habitable as-is, but with a little bit of time, money, and vision, this home has the potential to be a true show-stopper--a comfortable, warm, inviting home. Come see it today!

23. 2026-01-06
    price $195,000 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    New, improved price--seller says bring an offer! Union Grove ISD? Check. Little bit of land? Check. Detached covered parking with enclosed storage? Got that too! Yeah, it needs a little bit of dressing up, but the bones in the home are good--you've got a durable and stylish metal roof, a 3-year-old AC unit, a couple of acres to roam, and a nice-sized house with room for everyone! It's perfectly habitable as-is, but with a little bit of time, money, and vision, this home has the potential to be a true show-stopper--a comfortable, warm, inviting home. Come see it today!

24. 2025-11-19
    price $204,900 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    New, improved price--seller says bring an offer! Union Grove ISD? Check. Little bit of land? Check. Detached covered parking with enclosed storage? Got that too! Yeah, it needs a little bit of dressing up, but the bones in the home are good--you've got a durable and stylish metal roof, a 3-year-old AC unit, a couple of acres to roam, and a nice-sized house with room for everyone! It's perfectly habitable as-is, but with a little bit of time, money, and vision, this home has the potential to be a true show-stopper--a comfortable, warm, inviting home. Come see it today!

25. 2025-10-29
    listed $209,900 Active 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    New, improved price--seller says bring an offer! Union Grove ISD? Check. Little bit of land? Check. Detached covered parking with enclosed storage? Got that too! Yeah, it needs a little bit of dressing up, but the bones in the home are good--you've got a durable and stylish metal roof, a 3-year-old AC unit, a couple of acres to roam, and a nice-sized house with room for everyone! It's perfectly habitable as-is, but with a little bit of time, money, and vision, this home has the potential to be a true show-stopper--a comfortable, warm, inviting home. Come see it today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,975 · $248/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,294 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$319/yr (+$27/mo · 10.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,945
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,975
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,756
• − Management: −$1,756
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$761
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$183
• After-tax cash flow: $2,316/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union Grove ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843530
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $61,597
• Composite: 46.4/100
• National rank: #2458
• State rank: #117 of 826 in TX

Livability — Union Grove

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1363
• US rank: #23429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,457

Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.12%
• Current HPI: 303.1316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $180,000 GTAR
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $180,000 LAAR
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $194,900 LAAR
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $194,900 GTAR
• 2026-01-06 Listed $195,000 GTAR
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $195,000 LAAR
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $204,900 LAAR
• 2025-10-29 Listed $209,900 LAAR

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,975 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.