Kestrel Plan · Mercedes, TX 78570

$169,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,101 sqft · SingleFamily · 96 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Meet the Kestrel, the newest addition to our Harbor Home Collection-designed for first-time buyers, young families, and anyone ready to begin their homeownership journey with confidence and style. With 1,101 sq. ft. of living space, this single-story floor plan delivers a smart, efficient layout that feels open, comfortable, and easy to live in. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the Kestrel prioritizes functionality without sacrificing the modern design and thoughtful details Esperanza Homes is known for. A bright, open-concept living area anchors the home, creating the perfect space for family time, daily routines, and welcoming friends. Choose the elevation style that fits your personality-Contemporary, Farmhouse, Tuscan, or Traditional-each offering its own inviting curb appeal.

Key facts

• Listed 96 days

🏗️ New construction. The $169,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $196,276.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-382 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (17.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (27.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#547 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mercedes ISD (suburban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #811 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Taylor El (math 17% / reading 12%, grade F, #4,048 of 4,322 statewide, top 95%, 410 students, 95% FRL); Sgt William G Harrell Middle (math 6% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,623 of 1,662 statewide, top 98%, 451 students, 95% FRL); Mercedes H S (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,591 of 1,632 statewide, top 98%, 974 students, 91% FRL).
• Market conditions: 393 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (4.5% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,386 (27.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.33%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,276
• List price: $169,990
• Delta: -13.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.53% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $15,674
• Equity at exit: $105,615

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $71,107
• Equity at exit: $177,798

Cash invested: $54,957 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78570

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 393
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,234 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,029
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$245 /mo · $2,944/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,717

Max offer price $141,049

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-246	-5% $-314	+0% $-382	+5% $-449	+10% $-517
Rent	-10% $-479	-5% $-430	+0% $-382	+5% $-333	+10% $-284
Rate	-1.0pp $-283	-0.5pp $-332	base $-382	+0.5pp $-433	+1.0pp $-484

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,069
• Closing costs: $5,888
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,990 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,990 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,990 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,990 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,990 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,990 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,990 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,990 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,990 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $169,990 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,990 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,990 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,990 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,990 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,990 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,990 Active 76 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,990 Active 75 DOM
18. 2026-03-17
    listed $169,990 Active 796-char remark

    Show marketing remark (796 chars)

    Meet the Kestrel, the newest addition to our Harbor Home Collection-designed for first-time buyers, young families, and anyone ready to begin their homeownership journey with confidence and style. With 1,101 sq. ft. of living space, this single-story floor plan delivers a smart, efficient layout that feels open, comfortable, and easy to live in. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the Kestrel prioritizes functionality without sacrificing the modern design and thoughtful details Esperanza Homes is known for. A bright, open-concept living area anchors the home, creating the perfect space for family time, daily routines, and welcoming friends. Choose the elevation style that fits your personality-Contemporary, Farmhouse, Tuscan, or Traditional-each offering its own inviting curb appeal.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,806
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,994
• − Property taxes: −$2,944
• − Insurance: −$981
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,185
• − Management: −$1,185
• − Depreciation: −$5,710
• Taxable loss: −$8,192
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,966
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,614/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mercedes ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830250
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,606
• Composite: 12.84/100
• National rank: #9596
• State rank: #811 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mercedes

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #547
• US rank: #10619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 33,596
• Population (ZIP): 33,596

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 96% Two or more races 44% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Current HPI: 238.8386
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $169,990 Zillow