4014 Belle Ave · Baltimore, MD 21215

$195,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,311 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 140 Days on market

Built 1909 7,450 sqft lot $84/sqft · 48% below area Est $372k · 48% under ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ESTATE SALE OPPORTUNITY! This single-family home is currently arranged as two apartments, with a full kitchen on both the first and second floors. With the right vision, this property offers excellent potential for customization or income possibilities. HOME IS BEING SOLD AS-IS!

Key facts

• Full kitchen
• Single family home
• Income possibilities

Tags

• SINGLE FAMILY HOME
• FULL KITCHEN
• INCOME POSSIBILITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $988 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,974/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 3644% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1909 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1909 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.71%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $372,500
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -47.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3816 Sequoia Ave	0.27mi	5/2.5	2,382 (+3%)	3mo	$169,900	$71	78
3911 Chatham Rd	0.23mi	5/2.5	2,407 (+4%)	5mo	$370,000	$154	76
4011 Maine Ave	0.46mi	5/3.0	2,355 (+2%)	6mo	$184,000	$78	66
4115 Boarman Ave	0.18mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,504 (+8%)	2mo	$375,000	$150	65
3708 Mohawk Ave	0.37mi	5/4.0	2,468 (+7%)	3mo	$375,000	$152	61
4003 Springdale Ave	0.54mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,175 (-6%)	2mo	$200,000	$92	54
3714 W Cold Spring Ln	0.41mi	5/3.0	2,566 (+11%)	6mo	$318,000	$124	54
3603 Grantley Rd	0.65mi	5/3.5	2,142 (-7%)	4mo	$400,000	$187	48
4213 Springdale Ave	0.56mi	5/3.0	2,002 (-13%)	3mo	$370,000	$185	46
4306 Fernhill Ave	0.49mi	6/4.5 (+1)	2,085 (-10%)	0mo	$435,000	$209	46
3821 Copley Rd	0.60mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,093 (-9%)	1mo	$385,000	$184	45
4900 Haddon Ave	0.68mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,470 (+7%)	6mo	$425,000	$172	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $29,616
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $99,903
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21215

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,974 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,098/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$625
• Net cashflow: $988

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,724

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,098	-5% $1,043	+0% $988	+5% $933	+10% $877
Rent	-10% $753	-5% $870	+0% $988	+5% $1,105	+10% $1,223
Rate	-1.0pp $1,086	-0.5pp $1,037	base $988	+0.5pp $937	+1.0pp $886

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4029 Fairview Ave Baltimore, MD	5.0	4.5	2653	$3,200	$1.21	44d	1	0.71mi
3204 Sequoia Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.5	1791	$2,600	$1.45	44d	1	1.00mi
2510 Roslyn Ave Baltimore, MD	6.0	5.0	2663	$4,200	$1.58	44d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $195,000 Pending 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $195,000 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $195,000 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $195,000 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $195,000 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $195,000 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-05-12
   price $195,000 280-char remark

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   ESTATE SALE OPPORTUNITY! This single-family home is currently arranged as two apartments, with a full kitchen on both the first and second floors. With the right vision, this property offers excellent potential for customization or income possibilities. HOME IS BEING SOLD AS-IS!

8. 2026-05-12
   status Active 280-char remark

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   ESTATE SALE OPPORTUNITY! This single-family home is currently arranged as two apartments, with a full kitchen on both the first and second floors. With the right vision, this property offers excellent potential for customization or income possibilities. HOME IS BEING SOLD AS-IS!

9. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 280-char remark

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   ESTATE SALE OPPORTUNITY! This single-family home is currently arranged as two apartments, with a full kitchen on both the first and second floors. With the right vision, this property offers excellent potential for customization or income possibilities. HOME IS BEING SOLD AS-IS!

10. 2026-01-09
    listed $250,000 Active 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    ESTATE SALE OPPORTUNITY! This single-family home is currently arranged as two apartments, with a full kitchen on both the first and second floors. With the right vision, this property offers excellent potential for customization or income possibilities. HOME IS BEING SOLD AS-IS!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,098 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,098 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,694
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$3,098
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,856
• − Management: −$2,856
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $9,314
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,235
• After-tax cash flow: $9,619/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 52,229
• Household income: $51,587
• Rent vs Own: 45.2% rent · 54.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3644.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 17% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -318.58%
• Current HPI: 291.4926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-22.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $195,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-12 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-05 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,098 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.