4809 Empress Ln · Elfers, FL 34690

$142,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1979 6,570 sqft lot Est $141k · at est. $143/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Stop and check out this well-maintained home in a very active 55+ community. Home is furnished with 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, finished Florida room with separate a/c. Central heat and air-conditioning NEW in 2022, NEW Refrigerator, NEW dryer, enclosed and screen lanai. Windows have been replaced; seller is not sure of year of replacement. Low monthly maintenance fee of $143.00 includes lawn service, garbage removal, maintenance of year-around-heated pool, Clubhouse, Shuffleboard and the common areas. You OWN YOUR LAND. Measurements are approx. Buyer to verify all information that is deemed to be accurate.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• New refrigerator
• New dryer

Tags

• FINISHED FLORIDA ROOM
• ENCLOSED AND SCREEN LANAI
• NEW REFRIGERATOR
• NEW DRYER
• YEAR-AROUND-HEATED POOL
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential manufactured home; Zoning: RMH
• Financial info: Total annual fees $1,716
• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Qualified Property Management; Monthly HOA fee of $143 (includes common area taxes, escrow reserves, management, pool, private road, recreational facilities, trash); Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court, wheelchair access, deed restrictions, fence restrictions, vehicle restrictions, special community restrictions, street lights, sidewalks; Buyer approval required; Senior community; No truck/RV/motorcycle parking; Golf carts allowed; Pets allowed with breed restrictions (cats and dogs OK, max pet weight 25 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Ground-level parking pad; Tandem parking; 2-space carport
• Security: Lobby key required
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Faces south; Completed condition; Entry on crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Other roof type; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Porch; Awnings; Exterior lighting; Shed on property; Landscaped with trees; Level lot; Sidewalks; Paved surfaces; Near public transit; Private maintained road; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $143k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $143k).
• Recommended offer: $130k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.7% in Elfers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#167 in FL, #2,486 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $988 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $143k implies a 249% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,039 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.32%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $141,120
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3301 Chatford Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	2mo	$145,000	$151	97
3115 Bixler Ct	0.17mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	2mo	$87,000	$91	90
3126 Birkdale Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0	936 (-2%)	9mo	$152,400	$163	79
3200 Birkdale Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	17mo	$140,000	$146	78
4735 Burney Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	896 (-7%)	13mo	$135,000	$151	75
4720 Burney Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,065 (+11%)	1mo	$135,000	$127	72
4715 Burney Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0	864 (-10%)	12mo	$132,000	$153	69
3414 Chatford Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	12mo	$85,000	$80	66
3330 Chatford Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	840 (-12%)	13mo	$113,000	$135	64
4920 Sherrell Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	864 (-10%)	18mo	$127,000	$147	61
3035 Buckner Ct	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	18mo	$193,000	$183	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-10,199
• Equity at exit: $21,307

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,310
• Equity at exit: $12,355

Cash invested: $40,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34690

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,615 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$749
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $563/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$143
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,264

Max offer price $142,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $358	-5% $318	+0% $277	+5% $237	+10% $196
Rent	-10% $150	-5% $213	+0% $277	+5% $341	+10% $405
Rate	-1.0pp $349	-0.5pp $314	base $277	+0.5pp $240	+1.0pp $203

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,725
• Closing costs: $4,287
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3433 Monticello St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.5	960	$1,650	$1.72	25d	1	0.15mi
3511 Cambridge St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	936	$2,100	$2.24	6d	1	0.25mi
3421 Tricon Ln #12 Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,095	$1.26	0d	1	0.40mi
5232 Sparrow Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,975	$2.02	25d	1	0.47mi
4723 Aegean Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,636	$1.64	6d	1	0.63mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	0d	7	0.66mi
3439 Clydesdale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	968	$1,395	$1.44	6d	1	0.69mi
2610 Templewood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	6d	1	0.69mi
2552 Chancery Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,595	$1.95	25d	1	0.72mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,404	$1.37	3d	13	0.74mi
3029 Corona Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	894	$1,950	$2.18	6d	1	0.79mi
2509 Sweetwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	988	$1,650	$1.67	18d	1	0.80mi
4124 Flamingo Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,500	$2.02	15d	1	0.84mi
4124 Flamingo Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,500	$2.02	4d	1	0.84mi
5606 Mirada Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,550	$1.79	15d	1	0.86mi
4133 Grayton Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	1068	$1,727	$1.62	6d	1	0.88mi
5020 Vickers Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	863	$1,495	$1.73	0d	1	0.90mi
4358 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	15d	1	0.97mi
4358 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit G Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	25d	1	0.97mi
4823 Longwood Ave Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,800	$1.60	6d	1	0.98mi
4365 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,300	$1.58	0d	1	0.99mi
4356 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,350	$1.64	25d	1	0.99mi
4354 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,500	$1.82	25d	1	1.01mi
4209 Touchton Pl New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,300	$2.08	17d	1	1.02mi
4221 Touchton Pl New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	888	$1,300	$1.46	24d	1	1.03mi
3516 Sheryl Hill Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	848	$1,595	$1.88	25d	1	1.04mi
4318 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,200	$2.08	25d	1	1.05mi
4351 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,150	$1.39	25d	1	1.06mi
4313 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	825	$1,300	$1.58	15d	1	1.07mi
4326 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit 14E Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	768	$2,000	$2.60	25d	1	1.14mi
4337 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,500	$1.95	25d	1	1.17mi
2122 Ranchita Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	648	$1,399	$2.16	25d	1	1.18mi
3445 Wiltshire Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	992	$1,450	$1.46	22d	1	1.18mi
2117 Calusa Trl Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	708	$1,200	$1.69	6d	1	1.20mi
4408 Rustic Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	25d	1	1.20mi
4211 Hampton Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,795	$1.71	6d	1	1.20mi
4334 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,450	$1.89	25d	1	1.22mi
4411 Rustic Dr Unit 1 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	13d	1	1.23mi
3612 Springfield Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	1040	$1,450	$1.39	18d	1	1.23mi
2132 Kepner Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,295	$1.41	21d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $143 · $1,716/yr
• Likely covers: trashpool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $142,900 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $142,900 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $142,900 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $142,900 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $142,900 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $142,900 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $142,900 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $142,900 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $142,900 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $142,900 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $142,900 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $142,900 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $142,900 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-03-11
    listed $142,900 Active
15. 2001-05-14
    soldstatus $41,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $563 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,186 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$623/yr (+$52/mo · 110.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,385
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,005
• − Property taxes: −$563
• − Insurance: −$714
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,551
• − Management: −$1,551
• − HOA: −$1,716
• − Depreciation: −$4,157
• Taxable income: $1,127
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$271
• After-tax cash flow: $3,057/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Elfers

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #2486

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elfers, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,498
• Household income: $49,401
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 625.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.40%
• Current HPI: 316.5846
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.49%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+248.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $142,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $563 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.