3950 Coburg Rd #83 · Eugene, OR 97408

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 528 sqft · Manufactured public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1972 $76/sqft · 113% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Need to scale down? Affordable home in 55+ park near Armitage Park. No land, mobile home only. Comes with newer washer and dryer.newer furnace, newer roof coat, newer water heater, vinyl windows, newer walk in shower, bath cabinet/sink and faucet. includes refrigerator. Ramp to front door. Two storage sheds

Key facts

• Armitage park
• 55 park
• Built 1972

Tags

• 55 PARK
• ARMITAGE PARK
• COMMUNITY RECREATION ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number 4062632; Main living area reported as 528 (listed by county)
• Financial info: Monthly lot rent: $745; No land lease indicated
• HOA & community: Community laundry; Park management; Recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Detached carport/garage; RV/boat storage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric hot water; Electric fuel
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Single-story; Not attached to another unit; Model: UNK; No notable view; Located in Parkside Mobile Home Park; Senior community
• Construction: Built in 1972; Skirting foundation
• Exterior features: Cement siding; Membrane roof; Level lot; On busline; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (main level); Second bedroom (main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Accessible approach with ramp; One-level living; Laundry area; Family room; Great room; Dining room; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry (on main level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 45.2% vs local median 2.8% in Eugene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#52 in OR, #1,587 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, cost of living C-, crime D-.
• Eugene SD 4J (urban): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #10 of 58 in OR (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gilham Elementary School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C, #79 of 412 statewide, top 21%, 584 students, 36% FRL); Cal Young Middle School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade D-, #38 of 128 statewide, top 31%, 494 students, 48% FRL); Sheldon High School (math 70% / reading 70%, grade B, #14 of 143 statewide, top 10%, 1,525 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 100 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $40k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $38,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 45.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 138.99%
• DSCR: 7.18
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $18,739
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: 113.46%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3950 Coburg Rd #11	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	492 (-7%)	21mo	$20,000	$41	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.98×
• Total profit: $78,134
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.32×
• Total profit: $182,765
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97408

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $1,297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $350

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,325	-5% $1,311	+0% $1,297	+5% $1,283	+10% $1,270
Rent	-10% $1,140	-5% $1,219	+0% $1,297	+5% $1,376	+10% $1,455
Rate	-1.0pp $1,317	-0.5pp $1,307	base $1,297	+0.5pp $1,287	+1.0pp $1,276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2459 Lakeview Dr Eugene, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	966	$1,790	$1.85	14d	24	1.00mi
2733 Shadow View Dr Eugene, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,715	$3.21	14d	11	1.18mi
2847 Tennyson Ave Eugene, OR	3.0	1.0–2.0	902	$2,178	$2.41	14d	8	1.23mi
2940 Crescent Ave Eugene, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	849	$1,930	$2.27	14d	14	1.25mi
89325 Old Coburg Rd Unit 123 Eugene, OR	1.0	1.0	743	$1,400	$1.88	44d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $40,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $45,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $45,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $45,000 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    listed $49,000 Active 324-char remark
18. 2020-05-06
    soldstatus $13,700 Sold 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Need to scale down? Affordable home in 55+ park near Armitage Park. No land, mobile home only. Comes with newer washer and dryer.newer furnace, newer roof coat, newer water heater, vinyl windows, newer walk in shower, bath cabinet/sink and faucet. includes refrigerator. Ramp to front door. Two storage sheds

19. 2020-04-28
    status Pending 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Need to scale down? Affordable home in 55+ park near Armitage Park. No land, mobile home only. Comes with newer washer and dryer.newer furnace, newer roof coat, newer water heater, vinyl windows, newer walk in shower, bath cabinet/sink and faucet. includes refrigerator. Ramp to front door. Two storage sheds

20. 2020-04-14
    listed $13,900 Active 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Need to scale down? Affordable home in 55+ park near Armitage Park. No land, mobile home only. Comes with newer washer and dryer.newer furnace, newer roof coat, newer water heater, vinyl windows, newer walk in shower, bath cabinet/sink and faucet. includes refrigerator. Ramp to front door. Two storage sheds

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,912
• − Management: −$1,912
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $15,875
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,810
• After-tax cash flow: $11,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eugene SD 4J
• NCES district ID: 4104740
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,688
• Composite: 42.15/100
• National rank: #3302
• State rank: #10 of 58 in OR

Livability — Eugene

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #1587

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime D- Employment C- Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lane County · 310,476 people
• City population: 215,212
• Metro: Eugene-Springfield, OR
• Population (ZIP): 15,420
• Household income: $104,945
• Rent vs Own: 34.9% rent · 65.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Lane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 391,933 people
• By 2030: 405,860 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 429,386 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 452,016 · +15.3%
• By 2075: 508,825 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 531,208 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lane

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.1) · D 60.0% · R 36.9% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.1 2020: D+24.3 2016: D+18.9 2012: D+23.4 2008: D+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -196.97%
• Current HPI: 286.5805
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.97%
• Metro: Eugene-Springfield, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+187.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Price Changed $40,000 RMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $45,000 RMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $49,000 RMLS
• 2020-05-06 Sold (MLS) $13,700 RMLS
• 2020-04-28 Pending — RMLS
• 2020-04-14 Listed $13,900 RMLS

Property tax history

-27.6%/yr

Latest (2015): $6 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.