4453 Blackbirch Ln · Stonecrest, GA 30034

$219,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,084 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 145 Days on market

Built 1984 0.33 ac lot $106/sqft · 21% below area Est $278k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious bi-level home in the established Blackbirch Lane neighborhood of Decatur with approximately 2,080 sq ft of living space featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The residence sits on a generous ~0.33-acre lot with driveway and attached parking. Interior highlights include open common areas and well-proportioned bedrooms.

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1984

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.1% in Stonecrest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dekalb County (suburban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #125 of 174 in GA (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,240 units permitted in DeKalb County in 2024 (385 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,395/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 1659% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeKalb County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.86%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,185
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: -20.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3660 Woodyhill Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,126 (+2%)	10mo	$296,000	$139	73
3433 Hollow Tree Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0	2,154 (+3%)	4mo	$259,900	$121	71
3489 Hollow Tree Dr	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,024 (-3%)	8mo	$250,000	$124	70
4414 Blackbirch Ln	0.09mi	4/3.0	1,880 (-10%)	11mo	$165,000	$88	66
3631 Raiders Ridge Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,951 (-6%)	2mo	$280,000	$144	64
3288 Tarragon Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,104 (+1%)	8mo	$320,000	$152	64
4434 Newcastle Cir	0.31mi	4/2.0	2,299 (+10%)	14mo	$235,000	$102	56
3774 Hollow Oak Ln	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,320 (+11%)	5mo	$218,000	$94	55
3623 Stanford Cir	0.64mi	4/2.5	1,953 (-6%)	7mo	$300,000	$154	51
4590 Red Tail Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,390 (+15%)	15mo	$342,000	$143	45
4196 Lehigh Blvd	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,832 (-12%)	4mo	$210,000	$115	44
3856 Woodyhill Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,960 (-6%)	15mo	$310,000	$158	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-21,607
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-5,831
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30034

• Home prices YoY: -27.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,395 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$398 /mo · $4,776/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,080

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $374	-5% $311	+0% $249	+5% $187	+10% $125
Rent	-10% $60	-5% $155	+0% $249	+5% $344	+10% $438
Rate	-1.0pp $360	-0.5pp $305	base $249	+0.5pp $192	+1.0pp $134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3845 Woodyhill Dr Lithonia, GA	5.0	3.0	2930	$2,195	$0.75	23d	1	0.59mi
3667 Manhattan Dr Decatur, GA	4.0	2.5	1596	$1,981	$1.24	0d	1	0.73mi
3856 Radcliffe Blvd Decatur, GA	4.0	3.0	1968	$1,995	$1.01	45d	1	0.99mi
3577 Brycewood Dr Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1501	$1,950	$1.30	45d	1	1.04mi
3583 Brycewood Dr Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1461	$2,150	$1.47	45d	1	1.05mi
3601 Brycewood Dr Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1515	$2,150	$1.42	45d	1	1.08mi
3601 Brycewood Dr Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,150	$1.43	25d	1	1.08mi
3605 Brycewood Dr Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,150	$1.43	25d	1	1.08mi
3605 Brycewood Dr Decatur, GA	3.0	3.0	1515	$2,150	$1.42	45d	1	1.08mi
3607 Brycewood Dr Decatur, GA	3.0	3.0	1515	$2,150	$1.42	45d	1	1.09mi
3607 Brycewood Dr Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,150	$1.43	25d	1	1.09mi
3170 Sherwood Oaks Ct Decatur, GA	4.0	2.5	2987	$3,200	$1.07	0d	1	1.26mi
3948 English Valley Dr Ellenwood, GA	4.0	3.0	2492	$2,590	$1.04	14d	1	1.27mi
3468 Deer Trce Lithonia, GA	3.0	1.0	1886	$2,800	$1.48	25d	1	1.34mi
3095 Riders Trl Decatur, GA	3.0	2.0	1800	$4,500	$2.50	0d	1	1.36mi
3604 Spring Trce Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1806	$1,595	$0.88	45d	1	1.48mi
3693 Belmont Abbey Dr Decatur, GA	4.0	2.5	2454	$2,531	$1.03	14d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $219,900 Under Contract 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,900 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,900 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $219,900 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $219,900 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $219,900 Back On Market 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $219,900 Back On Market 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   status $219,900 Back On Market 134 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active Under Contract 134 DOM
11. 2026-05-07
    price $219,900 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Spacious bi-level home in the established Blackbirch Lane neighborhood of Decatur with approximately 2,080 sq ft of living space featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The residence sits on a generous ~0.33-acre lot with driveway and attached parking. Interior highlights include open common areas and well-proportioned bedrooms.

12. 2026-04-17
    price $229,900 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Spacious bi-level home in the established Blackbirch Lane neighborhood of Decatur with approximately 2,080 sq ft of living space featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The residence sits on a generous ~0.33-acre lot with driveway and attached parking. Interior highlights include open common areas and well-proportioned bedrooms.

13. 2026-04-10
    price $244,900 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Spacious bi-level home in the established Blackbirch Lane neighborhood of Decatur with approximately 2,080 sq ft of living space featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The residence sits on a generous ~0.33-acre lot with driveway and attached parking. Interior highlights include open common areas and well-proportioned bedrooms.

14. 2026-03-05
    status Back On Market 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Spacious bi-level home in the established Blackbirch Lane neighborhood of Decatur with approximately 2,080 sq ft of living space featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The residence sits on a generous ~0.33-acre lot with driveway and attached parking. Interior highlights include open common areas and well-proportioned bedrooms.

15. 2026-02-26
    status Under Contract 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Spacious bi-level home in the established Blackbirch Lane neighborhood of Decatur with approximately 2,080 sq ft of living space featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The residence sits on a generous ~0.33-acre lot with driveway and attached parking. Interior highlights include open common areas and well-proportioned bedrooms.

16. 2026-01-22
    price $249,900 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Spacious bi-level home in the established Blackbirch Lane neighborhood of Decatur with approximately 2,080 sq ft of living space featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The residence sits on a generous ~0.33-acre lot with driveway and attached parking. Interior highlights include open common areas and well-proportioned bedrooms.

17. 2026-01-09
    listed $254,900 New 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Spacious bi-level home in the established Blackbirch Lane neighborhood of Decatur with approximately 2,080 sq ft of living space featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The residence sits on a generous ~0.33-acre lot with driveway and attached parking. Interior highlights include open common areas and well-proportioned bedrooms.

18. 2017-06-01
    soldstatus $11,569,148
19. 1984-11-20
    soldstatus $55,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,776 · $398/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,776 · $398/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$4,776
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,299
• − Management: −$2,299
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$449
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$108
• After-tax cash flow: $3,099/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dekalb County
• NCES district ID: 1301740
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,448
• Composite: 20.92/100
• National rank: #8482
• State rank: #125 of 174 in GA

Livability — Stonecrest

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Dekalb County · 782,738 people
• City population: 106,165
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,847
• Household income: $63,517
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1659.0

Population outlook (DeKalb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 839,977 people
• By 2030: 891,768 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 988,894 · +17.7%
• By 2050: 1,074,583 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 1,245,026 · +48.2%
• By 2100: 1,303,135 · +55.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeKalb

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 81.9% · R 17.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.1pp toward D · 2008: 58.6pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+67.4 2016: D+64.8 2012: D+56.8 2008: D+58.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.92%
• Current HPI: 209.5638
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.18%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+295.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $219,900 GAMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $229,900 GAMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $244,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-02-26 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $249,900 GAMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $254,900 GAMLS
• 2017-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,569,148 Public Records
• 1984-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $55,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,776 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.