45 E Rdg · Mayflower, AR 72106

$153,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1956 $177/sqft · 6% above area Est $177k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Projects are getting finished up and we are not quite ready for showings. On Lake Conway water front, with new Fishing Pier, All new wood flooring, all new carpet in bedrooms, all new ceiling fans, brand new hot water heater, Brand new HVAC is a Lenox with top of the line heat pump, newly added fire pit & pergola, City Water, fiber optic, 5 cypress trees and 2 pecan trees, Roof age is about 8-9 years.

Key facts

• New fishing pier
• New ceiling fans
• New wood flooring

Tags

• LAKE CONWAY WATER FRONT
• NEW FISHING PIER
• NEW WOOD FLOORING
• NEW CARPET IN BEDROOMS
• NEW CEILING FANS
• BRAND NEW HOT WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pads
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family property (1,056 square feet)
• Construction: Metal or vinyl siding; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Sloped, wooded and cleared lot; River/lake area with lake view and lake front; Down slope; Gravel and paved road access; Parking pads

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Carpet floors; Sun room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $153k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-505/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.8% in Mayflower — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#390 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mayflower School District (rural): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #127 of 238 in AR (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (9.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $128,510 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.18%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,785
• List price: $153,000
• Delta: -13.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33 Hwy 89	0.49mi	2/2.0	942 (+9%)	9mo	$75,000	$80	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $76,674
• Equity at exit: $133,589

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.30×
• Total profit: $226,949
• Equity at exit: $283,688

Cash invested: $42,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72106

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,285 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$191 /mo · $2,295/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $-42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,338

Max offer price $146,906

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $64	-5% $11	+0% $-42	+5% $-95	+10% $-148
Rent	-10% $-144	-5% $-93	+0% $-42	+5% $9	+10% $59
Rate	-1.0pp $35	-0.5pp $-3	base $-42	+0.5pp $-82	+1.0pp $-122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,250
• Closing costs: $4,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $153,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $153,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $153,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $153,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $153,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $153,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $153,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $153,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $153,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $153,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $153,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $153,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $153,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $153,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $153,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-02
    listed $153,000 New Listing 411-char remark
17. 2014-04-10
    historical
18. 2014-01-01
    listed $43,977

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,421
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,570
• − Property taxes: −$2,295
• − Insurance: −$765
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,234
• − Management: −$1,234
• − Depreciation: −$4,451
• Taxable loss: −$3,127
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$751
• After-tax cash flow: $245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayflower School District
• NCES district ID: 0509540
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $47,119
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6760
• State rank: #127 of 238 in AR

Livability — Mayflower

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #390
• US rank: #22893

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mayflower, AR
• Population (ZIP): 5,719

Population outlook (Faulkner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,985 people
• By 2030: 148,264 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 166,010 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 183,362 · +31.9%
• By 2075: 224,593 · +61.6%
• By 2100: 250,603 · +80.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Faulkner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.3) · D 32.6% · R 64.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -25.3pp · 2024: -32.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.3 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+31.6 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+25.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.62%
• Current HPI: 236.6197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+247.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listed $153,000 CARMLS
• 2014-04-10 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2014-01-01 Listed $43,977 CARMLS

Property tax history

-13.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $113 · -38.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.