16291 Johns Dr · Natalbany, LA 70466

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,373 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1967 1.90 ac lot $138/sqft · at area comps Est $194k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home has been beautifully updated and is full of warmth and comfort. Inside, you'll find granite countertops, stylish flooring, an open concept layout, and a spacious primary suite featuring sliding glass doors that bring in natural light and peaceful views of the property. The primary bath offers custom tile work along with a large walk in closet, while both bathrooms feature beautifully tiled tub surrounds for an added custom touch. A new roof adds peace of mind, and the home sits on 1.90 unrestricted acres, offering plenty of space for animals, outdoor hobbies, gardening, or simply enjoying country living. Cozy, inviting, and move in ready, this property offers comfort, flexibility, and room to make it your own.

Key facts

• 1.9 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1967

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 1.9 acres (dimensions: 210 x 394.65 x 210 x 394.4)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer via treatment plant
• Home design: Single-story; Very good condition; Slab foundation; Shingle roof; Brick and HardiPlank exterior
• Construction: Built with brick and HardiPlank siding
• Exterior features: Front porch; Property located outside city limits

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Granite counters
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $817 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 4.4% in Natalbany — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#208 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Park Magnet (math 12% / reading 8%, grade F, #597 of 646 statewide, top 95%, 519 students, 88% FRL); Lucille Nesom Memorial (math 7% / reading 21%, grade F, #534 of 646 statewide, top 83%, 549 students, 83% FRL); Independence High Magnet (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #224 of 265 statewide, top 86%, 570 students, 80% FRL).
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.44%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,284
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -2.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16291 Johns Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,379 (+0%)	0mo	$191,000	$139	99
49145 Whiskey Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-2%)	9mo	$160,000	$119	78
50026 Drago Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-5%)	9mo	$229,900	$176	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $81,393
• Equity at exit: $92,352

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.93×
• Total profit: $208,906
• Equity at exit: $147,957

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70466

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $985/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $817

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,465

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $925	-5% $871	+0% $817	+5% $764	+10% $710
Rent	-10% $620	-5% $719	+0% $817	+5% $916	+10% $1,015
Rate	-1.0pp $913	-0.5pp $866	base $817	+0.5pp $768	+1.0pp $718

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18301-0 Fox Hollow Loop Hammond, LA	4.0	3.0	1847	$2,500	$1.35	45d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 756-char remark

   Show marketing remark (756 chars)

   This charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home has been beautifully updated and is full of warmth and comfort. Inside, you'll find granite countertops, stylish flooring, an open concept layout, and a spacious primary suite featuring sliding glass doors that bring in natural light and peaceful views of the property. The primary bath offers custom tile work along with a large walk in closet, while both bathrooms feature beautifully tiled tub surrounds for an added custom touch. A new roof adds peace of mind, and the home sits on 1.90 unrestricted acres, offering plenty of space for animals, outdoor hobbies, gardening, or simply enjoying country living. Cozy, inviting, and move in ready, this property offers comfort, flexibility, and room to make it your own.

2. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 762-char remark

   Show marketing remark (756 chars)

   This charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home has been beautifully updated and is full of warmth and comfort. Inside, you'll find granite countertops, stylish flooring, an open concept layout, and a spacious primary suite featuring sliding glass doors that bring in natural light and peaceful views of the property. The primary bath offers custom tile work along with a large walk in closet, while both bathrooms feature beautifully tiled tub surrounds for an added custom touch. A new roof adds peace of mind, and the home sits on 1.90 unrestricted acres, offering plenty of space for animals, outdoor hobbies, gardening, or simply enjoying country living. Cozy, inviting, and move in ready, this property offers comfort, flexibility, and room to make it your own.

3. 2026-05-06
   listed $190,000 Active 756-char remark

   Show marketing remark (756 chars)

   This charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home has been beautifully updated and is full of warmth and comfort. Inside, you'll find granite countertops, stylish flooring, an open concept layout, and a spacious primary suite featuring sliding glass doors that bring in natural light and peaceful views of the property. The primary bath offers custom tile work along with a large walk in closet, while both bathrooms feature beautifully tiled tub surrounds for an added custom touch. A new roof adds peace of mind, and the home sits on 1.90 unrestricted acres, offering plenty of space for animals, outdoor hobbies, gardening, or simply enjoying country living. Cozy, inviting, and move in ready, this property offers comfort, flexibility, and room to make it your own.

4. 2026-05-06
   listed $190,000 Active 762-char remark

   Show marketing remark (756 chars)

   This charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home has been beautifully updated and is full of warmth and comfort. Inside, you'll find granite countertops, stylish flooring, an open concept layout, and a spacious primary suite featuring sliding glass doors that bring in natural light and peaceful views of the property. The primary bath offers custom tile work along with a large walk in closet, while both bathrooms feature beautifully tiled tub surrounds for an added custom touch. A new roof adds peace of mind, and the home sits on 1.90 unrestricted acres, offering plenty of space for animals, outdoor hobbies, gardening, or simply enjoying country living. Cozy, inviting, and move in ready, this property offers comfort, flexibility, and room to make it your own.

5. 2016-06-23
   soldstatus $139,000
6. 2016-06-22
   soldstatus $139,000
7. 2016-05-03
   listed $139,000
8. 2016-05-03
   listed $139,000
9. 2015-06-05
   soldstatus $25,000
10. 2014-08-06
    listed $25,000
11. 2014-08-06
    listed $25,000
12. 2013-08-06
    listed $70,000
13. 2013-08-06
    listed $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $985 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,045 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$60/yr (+$5/mo · 6.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$985
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $7,095
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,703
• After-tax cash flow: $8,105/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tangipahoa Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201680
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $41,283
• Composite: 19.94/100
• National rank: #8676
• State rank: #63 of 98 in LA

Livability — Natalbany

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #16184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 73
• Population (ZIP): 9,815

Population outlook (Tangipahoa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,204 people
• By 2030: 151,413 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 164,374 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 175,427 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 195,165 · +35.3%
• By 2100: 201,641 · +39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Serbian 2% Scandinavian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Tangipahoa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.6% · R 68.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.9pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+32.6 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+30.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.64%
• Current HPI: 126.0016
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+172.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) $191,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) $191,000 GSREIN
• 2026-05-11 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — GSREIN
• 2026-05-06 Listed $190,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $190,000 GSREIN
• 2016-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2016-06-22 Sold (MLS) $139,000 GSREIN
• 2016-05-03 Listed $139,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2016-05-03 Listed $139,000 GSREIN
• 2015-06-05 Sold (MLS) $25,000 GSREIN
• 2014-08-06 Listed $25,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2014-08-06 Listed $25,000 GSREIN
• 2013-08-06 Listed $70,000 GSREIN
• 2013-08-06 Listed $70,000 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $985 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.