157 Victoria Dr · Lake Alfred, FL 33844

$184,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,539 sqft · Manufactured public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1991 4,326 sqft lot $387/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled within the friendly, sought-after 55+ community of Sweetwater Golf and Tennis Club, this beautifully maintained and partially furnished residence offers comfort, style, and peace of mind. Recent updates include a brand-new roof installed on December 30, 2023, fresh interior paint, new carpeting throughout, and updated plumbing with no grey pipes. With no rear neighbors, the property provides a private and relaxing setting with generous living spaces designed for both everyday living and entertaining. Step inside to discover a bright, air-conditioned Florida Room filled with natural light — an ideal flex space that could easily serve as a third bedroom, office, or hobby room. T

Key facts

• Florida room
• View of the woods
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• VIEW OF THE WOODS
• STEP-IN SHOWER
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• FRONT LANAI CONVERTED
• UPDATED PLUMBING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs, weight limit 20 lbs, number limit applies); Community features: clubhouse, deed restrictions, dog park, golf carts OK, golf, pool, tennis courts, street lights
• Financial info: Total annual fees reported $4,644; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $387) with buyer approval required; HOA amenities include cable TV, clubhouse, fitness center, gated entry, golf course access, pool, tennis and pickleball courts, shuffleboard, and fence restrictions; Association fee includes cable TV, internet, pool, private road maintenance, sewer, trash, water and common area taxes

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Private well water; Private sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One-level; West-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Irrigation equipment (sprinkler well); Private maintained asphalt road; Lot approximately 0.1 acre (50 x 86)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Ice maker; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $184k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-491/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (3.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $184k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (3.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $184k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,772 (3.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.95%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-35,789
• Equity at exit: $27,435

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-47,811
• Equity at exit: $15,909

Cash invested: $51,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,982 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,136/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$387
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,034

Max offer price $176,772

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $63	-5% $11	+0% $-41	+5% $-93	+10% $-145
Rent	-10% $-197	-5% $-119	+0% $-41	+5% $37	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $52	-0.5pp $6	base $-41	+0.5pp $-89	+1.0pp $-137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,000
• Closing costs: $5,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3329 Aruba Way Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1669	$2,200	$1.32	24d	1	1.04mi
1901 US Highway 17 92 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,900	$1.74	15d	1	1.16mi
4955 Old Lucerne Park Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$2,050	$1.27	24d	1	1.22mi
6004 Bimini Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,750	$1.18	24d	1	1.24mi
3000 US Highway 17 92 W Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$1,800	$1.44	3d	1	1.32mi
241 Meadowbrook Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,000	$1.16	15d	1	1.45mi
265 Meadowbrook Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,200	$1.54	3d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $387 · $4,644/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $184,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $184,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $184,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-04-26
    listed $184,000 Active
16. 2025-07-09
    historical
17. 2025-03-14
    price $185,000
18. 2025-01-09
    listed $190,000 Active
19. 2024-05-10
    historical
20. 2024-03-03
    price $203,000
21. 2024-01-11
    listed $207,000 Active
22. 2024-01-11
    historical
23. 2023-12-15
    price $207,000
24. 2023-11-06
    price $213,900
25. 2023-09-28
    listed $218,650 Active
26. 2015-01-27
    soldstatus $72,500
27. 2012-12-28
    soldstatus $70,000
28. 2012-12-21
    soldstatus $70,000
29. 2011-01-19
    listed $89,900
30. 2004-12-20
    soldstatus $66,900
31. 2000-08-18
    soldstatus $59,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,136 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,136 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,783
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,307
• − Property taxes: −$2,136
• − Insurance: −$920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,903
• − Management: −$1,903
• − HOA: −$4,644
• − Depreciation: −$5,353
• Taxable loss: −$3,382
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$812
• After-tax cash flow: $321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 9,757
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+208.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Listed $184,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-14 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-09 Listed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-03 Price Changed $203,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-11 Listed $207,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-15 Price Changed $207,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-06 Price Changed $213,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-28 Listed $218,650 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records
• 2012-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2012-12-21 Sold (MLS) $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-01-19 Listed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $66,900 Public Records
• 2000-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $59,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,136 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.