6 Hilltop · New Hartford, NY 13413

$199,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,274 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1950 0.52 ac lot Est $234k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 6 Hilltop Terrace – a charming 2-bedroom Cape Cod style home located in one of New Hartford’s most desirable neighborhoods. This property offers a wonderful opportunity to live in a quiet, established area while enjoying the benefits of the New Hartford School District. The home features a comfortable living area, a functional kitchen, and two bedrooms. 1 on the main floor. & the 2nd upstairs. 1st floor bathroom Outside, you’ll find a manageable yard and a peaceful neighborhood setting, perfect for relaxing or enjoying evening walks. With its great location close to shopping, dining, schools, and parks, this home offers both convenience and charm.

Key facts

• Manageable yard
• Cape cod style home
• 0.52 acre lot

Tags

• CAPE COD STYLE HOME
• NEW HARTFORD SCHOOL DISTRICT
• MANAGEABLE YARD
• PEACEFUL NEIGHBORHOOD SETTING
• GREAT LOCATION CLOSE TO DINING
• GREAT LOCATION CLOSE TO PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.8% in New Hartford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#157 in NY, #2,420 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• New Hartford Central School District (suburban): math 65% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #128 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $199k implies a 176% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $193,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.22%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,416
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 Greatview Pl	0.12mi	2/1.0	1,216 (-5%)	13mo	$255,000	$210	76
7 Hilltop Ter	0.03mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,305 (+2%)	20mo	$239,000	$183	73
64 Merritt Pl	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,246 (-2%)	11mo	$260,000	$209	72
21 Hara Cres	0.31mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,160 (-9%)	4mo	$250,000	$216	60
6 Helen Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,348 (+6%)	10mo	$250,000	$185	57
178 Paris Rd	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,374 (+8%)	5mo	$240,000	$175	54
1 Paulevan Pl	0.39mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,440 (+13%)	2mo	$225,000	$156	52
2 Longfellow Dr	0.60mi	2/1.5	1,148 (-10%)	8mo	$320,000	$279	47
17 Arbor Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,301 (+2%)	24mo	$175,000	$135	41
81 Oakdale Ave S	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,139 (-11%)	9mo	$210,000	$184	32
11 Pinecrest Rd	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,145 (-10%)	17mo	$185,000	$162	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-7,882
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $24,672
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13413

• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,273 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,453/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,790

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $494	-5% $438	+0% $382	+5% $325	+10% $269
Rent	-10% $202	-5% $292	+0% $382	+5% $471	+10% $561
Rate	-1.0pp $482	-0.5pp $432	base $382	+0.5pp $330	+1.0pp $278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
167 Clinton Rd New Hartford, NY	3.0	1.0–2.5	1063	$2,433	$2.29	44d	15	1.00mi
118 Copeland Ct Apt 205 New Hartford, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	44d	1	1.05mi
11 Sanger Ave New Hartford, NY	3.0	2.5	1852	$3,750	$2.02	44d	1	1.35mi
77 Clinton St New York Mills, NY	2.0	1.0	777	$1,450	$1.86	44d	7	1.35mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-10-27
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-16
   price $199,000
3. 2025-09-16
   price $199,999
4. 2025-09-16
   listed $239,000 Active
5. 1993-06-15
   soldstatus $72,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,453 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,453 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,279
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$3,453
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,182
• − Management: −$2,182
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $1,530
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$367
• After-tax cash flow: $4,212/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Hartford Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620370
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,028
• Composite: 61.37/100
• National rank: #769
• State rank: #128 of 590 in NY

Livability — New Hartford

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #157
• US rank: #2420

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• City population: 16,742
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,742
• Household income: $95,261
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 395.0

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 4% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Vietnam, China, Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.17%
• Current HPI: 295.4235
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+176.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-27 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $199,000 CNYIS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $199,999 CNYIS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $239,000 CNYIS
• 1993-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,453 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.