1239 Hilldale Rd · Rosedale, MD 21237

$230,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 1952 5,250 sqft lot $188/sqft · 21% below area Est $289k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute cape-cod style home located in the Rosedale area of Baltimore County. Updated kitchen with luxury vinyl flooring is on the main level with two bedrooms. Two additional rooms on the second level. The basement is unfinished with recent waterproofing. Off-street parking with a nice, partially fenced backyard. Finishing touches are needed, come and get it! Cash/ hard Money preferred.

Key facts

• Updated kitchen
• Recent waterproofing
• 5,250 sq ft lot

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• PARTIALLY FENCED BACKYARD
• RECENT WATERPROOFING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $209k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.9% in Rosedale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#37 in MD, #1,338 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $69k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $160k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,300 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.02%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,480
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -20.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8426 Avery Rd	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,212 (-1%)	9mo	$312,195	$258	62
8108 Woodhaven Rd	0.45mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,192 (-3%)	9mo	$257,600	$216	60
1208 Krueger Ave	0.44mi	4/2.5	1,157 (-6%)	12mo	$350,000	$303	55
1514 Chapel Hill Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,212 (-1%)	19mo	$289,000	$238	54
8011 Camhill Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,092 (-11%)	19mo	$335,000	$307	25
8600 Daytona	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,396 (+14%)	14mo	$324,000	$232	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-11,649
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $37,902
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21237

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,468 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$325 /mo · $3,897/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,059

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8212 Dorset Ave Rosedale, MD	4.0	1.5	1479	$2,250	$1.52	44d	1	0.44mi
6512 Golden Ring Rd Rosedale, MD	4.0	3.0	1089	$2,800	$2.57	16d	1	0.70mi
1732 Chesaco Ave Rosedale, MD	3.0	1.0	1260	$2,295	$1.82	44d	1	0.89mi
2009 Longview Ave Rosedale, MD	3.0	2.0	1062	$2,500	$2.35	15d	1	1.27mi
6042 Barstow Rd Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	736	$1,527	$2.07	2d	1	1.27mi
511 Riverside Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1332	$2,700	$2.03	16d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $230,000 Pending 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $230,000 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $230,000 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $230,000 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $230,000 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $230,000 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-05-16
   price $230,000 387-char remark

   Show marketing remark (387 chars)

   Cute cape-cod style home located in the Rosedale area of Baltimore County. Updated kitchen with luxury vinyl flooring is on the main level with two bedrooms. Two additional rooms on the second level. The basement is unfinished with recent waterproofing. Off-street parking with a nice, partially fenced backyard. Finishing touches are needed, come and get it! Cash/ hard Money preferred.

8. 2026-05-01
   price $240,000 387-char remark

   Show marketing remark (387 chars)

   Cute cape-cod style home located in the Rosedale area of Baltimore County. Updated kitchen with luxury vinyl flooring is on the main level with two bedrooms. Two additional rooms on the second level. The basement is unfinished with recent waterproofing. Off-street parking with a nice, partially fenced backyard. Finishing touches are needed, come and get it! Cash/ hard Money preferred.

9. 2026-04-14
   price $250,000 387-char remark

   Show marketing remark (387 chars)

   Cute cape-cod style home located in the Rosedale area of Baltimore County. Updated kitchen with luxury vinyl flooring is on the main level with two bedrooms. Two additional rooms on the second level. The basement is unfinished with recent waterproofing. Off-street parking with a nice, partially fenced backyard. Finishing touches are needed, come and get it! Cash/ hard Money preferred.

10. 2026-03-25
    price $274,000 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Cute cape-cod style home located in the Rosedale area of Baltimore County. Updated kitchen with luxury vinyl flooring is on the main level with two bedrooms. Two additional rooms on the second level. The basement is unfinished with recent waterproofing. Off-street parking with a nice, partially fenced backyard. Finishing touches are needed, come and get it! Cash/ hard Money preferred.

11. 2026-03-06
    price $289,000 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Cute cape-cod style home located in the Rosedale area of Baltimore County. Updated kitchen with luxury vinyl flooring is on the main level with two bedrooms. Two additional rooms on the second level. The basement is unfinished with recent waterproofing. Off-street parking with a nice, partially fenced backyard. Finishing touches are needed, come and get it! Cash/ hard Money preferred.

12. 2026-03-06
    status Active 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Cute cape-cod style home located in the Rosedale area of Baltimore County. Updated kitchen with luxury vinyl flooring is on the main level with two bedrooms. Two additional rooms on the second level. The basement is unfinished with recent waterproofing. Off-street parking with a nice, partially fenced backyard. Finishing touches are needed, come and get it! Cash/ hard Money preferred.

13. 2026-03-03
    historical 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Cute cape-cod style home located in the Rosedale area of Baltimore County. Updated kitchen with luxury vinyl flooring is on the main level with two bedrooms. Two additional rooms on the second level. The basement is unfinished with recent waterproofing. Off-street parking with a nice, partially fenced backyard. Finishing touches are needed, come and get it! Cash/ hard Money preferred.

14. 2026-02-05
    listed $299,000 Active 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Cute cape-cod style home located in the Rosedale area of Baltimore County. Updated kitchen with luxury vinyl flooring is on the main level with two bedrooms. Two additional rooms on the second level. The basement is unfinished with recent waterproofing. Off-street parking with a nice, partially fenced backyard. Finishing touches are needed, come and get it! Cash/ hard Money preferred.

15. 2025-12-01
    historical
16. 2025-10-30
    price $275,000
17. 2025-08-29
    price $280,000
18. 2025-07-31
    price $290,000
19. 2025-06-19
    listed $299,000 Active
20. 2025-06-06
    historical
21. 2025-04-01
    soldstatus $160,000
22. 2024-12-23
    soldstatus $87,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,897 · $325/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,897 · $325/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,617
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,897
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,369
• − Management: −$2,369
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable income: $256
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$62
• After-tax cash flow: $3,815/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Rosedale

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1338

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosedale, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 30,851
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 31,425
• Household income: $91,693
• Rent vs Own: 37.9% rent · 62.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 887.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Black 38% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, India, South Korea
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.40%
• Current HPI: 242.8057
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+164.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $230,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $240,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $274,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $289,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-06 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $299,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $275,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $280,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $290,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-19 Listed $299,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-06 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2024-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,897 · +20.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.