2810 W Gray Fox Ln · Jacksonville, AR 72076

$199,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,024 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1973 0.35 ac lot Est $229k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT FOXWOOD LOCATION! Brick & Frame, 4 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath, Home that backs to Southern Oaks golf course. Has separate Formal Living Room; Formal Dining Room; Kitchen w/ breakfast bar opens to Den/Family Room w/ wood burning Fireplace. Nice size Bedrooms; Master Bedroom has Bath w/ Dbl. sinks, walk-in shower & 2 closets. Master Bedroom & Den both have Dbl. Glass Doors that open to Huge 2 level Deck across back of house & overlook golf course. Mature shade trees and landscaping front and back.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Formal living room
• Golf course views

Tags

• GOLF COURSE VIEWS
• SOUTHERN OAKS GOLF COURSE
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• BREAKFAST BAR

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing options include VA, FHA, conventional, cash, or other (see remarks)
• HOA & community: Community swimming pool(s); Clubhouse; Party room; Voluntary fee; Golf course community

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with automatic door opener
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water; Municipal electric (Entergy); Cable TV; Antenna TV; Satellite TV; Private telephone; Insulated windows; Attic turbo vent
• Home design: Brick and frame exterior; Inside city limits
• Construction: Crawl space foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Level lot; Located in a subdivision; Common to golf course; Golf view

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Formal living room; Den/Family room; Laundry room
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Heat pump
• Interior features: Washer connection; Electric dryer connection; Ceiling fans; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Electric dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($739/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#231 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Jacksonville North Pulaski School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #211 of 238 in AR (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,006 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pulaski County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $200k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,343 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.32%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,712
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
134 Foxdell Cir	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,066 (+2%)	6mo	$184,000	$89	79
4 Vixen Trl	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,008 (-1%)	9mo	$225,000	$112	63
715 Foxboro Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0	2,138 (+6%)	9mo	$232,000	$109	63
23 Club Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,223 (+10%)	4mo	$230,000	$103	60
1 Woodhaven Ct	0.68mi	4/2.5	1,900 (-6%)	0mo	$332,500	$175	58
902 Foxwood Dr	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,162 (+7%)	10mo	$244,000	$113	55
11 Vixen Trl	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,910 (-6%)	10mo	$215,000	$113	52
108 Tecumseh Trl	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,745 (-14%)	2mo	$145,000	$83	50
1512 Puritan Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (-7%)	0mo	$303,200	$161	49
106 Foxrun Cv	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,281 (+13%)	2mo	$260,000	$114	47
4 Woodhaven Ct	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,140 (+6%)	10mo	$359,900	$168	46
1500 Puritan Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,771 (-12%)	2mo	$280,000	$158	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-28,359
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-19,193
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72076

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,743 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,209/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,665

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $175	-5% $118	+0% $62	+5% $5	+10% $-52
Rent	-10% $-76	-5% $-7	+0% $62	+5% $130	+10% $199
Rate	-1.0pp $162	-0.5pp $112	base $62	+0.5pp $10	+1.0pp $-43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2811 Fox Glenn St Jacksonville, AR	4.0	2.0	2492	$1,899	$0.76	24d	1	0.13mi
2811 Fox Glenn St Jacksonville, AR	4.0	2.0	2492	$1,899	$0.76	44d	1	0.13mi
104 Quapaw Pl Jacksonville, AR	3.0	2.5	1940	$1,575	$0.81	15d	1	0.26mi
3000 John Harden Dr #54 Jacksonville, AR	4.0	2.0	2280	$1,500	$0.66	24d	1	0.63mi
1024 Colonial Dr Jacksonville, AR	3.0	2.0	1640	$1,400	$0.85	24d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   status $199,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 New Listing 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 New Listing 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 New Listing 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   listed $199,900 New Listing 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,209 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,209 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,921
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,209
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,674
• − Management: −$1,674
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,648
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$635
• After-tax cash flow: $1,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jacksonville North Pulaski School District
• NCES district ID: 0500419
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,869
• Composite: 17.16/100
• National rank: #9110
• State rank: #211 of 238 in AR

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #231
• US rank: #17378

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, AR
• County: Pulaski County · 372,764 people
• City population: 38,437
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 38,437
• Household income: $54,379
• Rent vs Own: 46.6% rent · 53.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1733.0

Population outlook (Pulaski County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,378 people
• By 2030: 423,720 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 435,182 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 440,904 · +6.1%
• By 2075: 445,521 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 419,173 · +0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 38% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pulaski

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.1) · D 59.8% · R 37.7% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: 11.6pp · 2024: 22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.1 2020: D+22.5 2016: D+17.9 2012: D+11.4 2008: D+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.51%
• Current HPI: 201.6405
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.07%
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+42.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $199,900 CARMLS
• 2017-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $124,750 Public Records
• 2017-06-30 Sold (MLS) $124,750 CARMLS
• 2017-06-29 Pending — CARMLS
• 2017-05-02 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2016-10-17 Listed $139,900 CARMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,209 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.