3450 Howard Rd #114 · Wanakah, NY 14075

$119,873

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 975 sqft · Manufactured · 36 Days on market

Built 2007 $123/sqft · 187% above area ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming and well-maintained manufactured home situated in the lovely Waterfalls Village Park! You’ll appreciate the close proximity to Hamburg Beach, Woodlawn State Park, Canalside, and all the local amenities. This affordable home features 3/4 bedrooms and 2 full baths, with an inviting open floor plan where the kitchen seamlessly flows into the living room. Appliances are negotiable. Recent updates include a newer roof (5 years old), new flooring and carpeting. Enjoy amenities like Central Air, first-floor laundry, a covered front deck, a spacious shed, and a beautiful yard. Taxes are included in the lot rent. Buyers will need to be approved by Waterfalls Village Pa

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• New carpeting
• Newer roof

Tags

• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CANALSIDE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NEWER ROOF
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW CARPETING
• CENTRAL AIR

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease: $784/month

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Propane water heater; Public water connected; Sewer connected; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story dwelling; Double wide mobile home (Skyline); Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Block foundation; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Concrete driveway; Shed(s) and additional storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and gas range; Refrigerator; Appliances negotiable
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Bedroom dimensions include 12 x 12, 12 x 9, and 11 x 8 (first level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Living/dining room; Convertible bedroom; Primary bedroom with private bath
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $496 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 3.1% in Wanakah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#508 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Frontier Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #301 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 262 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $116,276 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.73%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $41,762
• List price: $119,873
• Delta: 187.04%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
52 Waterview Pkwy	0.39mi	3/2.0	924 (-5%)	3mo	$65,000	$70	71
41 S Roxbury Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	924 (-5%)	3mo	$40,000	$43	67
50 S Roxbury Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	924 (-5%)	6mo	$84,900	$92	66
87 Waterview Pkwy	0.35mi	2/1.5 (-1)	924 (-5%)	11mo	$46,000	$50	59
21 Brush Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,066 (+9%)	4mo	$93,500	$88	58
32 Waterview Pkwy	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (-4%)	8mo	$25,000	$27	58
17 Rippleway Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,036 (+6%)	1mo	$28,000	$27	57
37 Waterview Pkwy	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (-5%)	11mo	$56,000	$61	54
32 Brookridge Dr	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (-5%)	2mo	$37,250	$40	50
10 Vibernum Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0	924 (-5%)	10mo	$23,500	$25	49
16 Jean Dr	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (-5%)	14mo	$41,000	$44	49
2 Vibernum Dr	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (-5%)	10mo	$26,000	$28	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $15,920
• Equity at exit: $17,873

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $70,674
• Equity at exit: $10,364

Cash invested: $33,564 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14075

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,649 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,542/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $496

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,022

Max offer price $119,873

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,968
• Closing costs: $3,596
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3580 Sowles Rd Hamburg, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,450	$1.71	1d	1	0.64mi
4819 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	2.0	2.0	1170	$2,055	$1.76	1d	1	0.93mi
4600 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,750	$2.41	1d	13	1.39mi
4591 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	737	$1,415	$1.92	1d	12	1.44mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,873 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,873 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,873 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,873 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,873 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,873 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,873 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,873 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,873 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,873 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,873 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,873 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,873 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,873 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $124,873 Active 827-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,542 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$242/yr (+$20/mo · 15.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,792
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,715
• − Property taxes: −$1,542
• − Insurance: −$599
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,583
• − Management: −$1,583
• − Depreciation: −$3,487
• Taxable income: $4,282
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,028
• After-tax cash flow: $4,923/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frontier Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611670
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,807
• Composite: 47.36/100
• National rank: #2291
• State rank: #301 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wanakah

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #508
• US rank: #8972

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,520
• Household income: $83,383
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -261.10%
• Current HPI: 300.2852
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $119,873 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $124,873 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,542 · +98.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.