15509 Rose Dr · South Holland, IL 60473

$135,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,015 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1955 6,250 sqft lot Est $152k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cozy ranch home priced to sell! Nice size bedrooms. Eat in kitchen. Separate laundry room and utility closet. Central air. Rear yard has nice screened in porch. 1 car detached garage in excellent condition. Concrete side drive. Great curb appeal. Beautiful neighborhood.

Key facts

• Concrete side drive
• Screened in porch
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• EAT IN KITCHEN
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• UTILITY CLOSET
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• DETACHED GARAGE
• CONCRETE SIDE DRIVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $494 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 8.4% in South Holland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#167 in IL, #3,071 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, schools D+.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $135k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $135,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.68%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $152,250
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15509 Rose Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,100 (+8%)	0mo	$135,000	$123	86
15519 Ellis Ave	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,024 (+1%)	4mo	$133,000	$130	76
15503 Park Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	968 (-5%)	0mo	$170,000	$176	73
717 E 154th St	0.12mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (+10%)	2mo	$177,000	$158	70
15539 Minerva Ave	0.45mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,050 (+3%)	2mo	$134,000	$128	64
15722 Woodlawn East Ave	0.61mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,015 (0%)	1mo	$101,000	$100	64
15223 Cottage Grove Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,099 (+8%)	3mo	$172,000	$157	63
14915 Irving Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	980 (-3%)	4mo	$68,000	$69	57
1138 E 151st St	0.74mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,056 (+4%)	2mo	$210,000	$199	50
1340 Prince Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,066 (+5%)	2mo	$160,000	$150	48
619 E 152nd St	0.54mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,146 (+13%)	1mo	$153,000	$134	46
14927 Cottage Grove Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,095 (+8%)	1mo	$250,000	$228	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $9,743
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $49,639
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60473

• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,069 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$377 /mo · $4,521/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $494

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,444

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $570	-5% $532	+0% $494	+5% $456	+10% $418
Rent	-10% $330	-5% $412	+0% $494	+5% $576	+10% $657
Rate	-1.0pp $562	-0.5pp $528	base $494	+0.5pp $459	+1.0pp $423

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15324 Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Dr Unit 1B Dolton, IL	1.0	1.0	725	$985	$1.36	19d	1	0.51mi
15238 Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Dr Unit 2W Dolton, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	11d	1	0.55mi
14916 Langley Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	1.5	1418	$2,500	$1.76	25d	1	0.74mi
16001 Avalon Ave South Holland, IL	3.0	2.0	1136	$3,330	$2.93	7d	1	0.86mi
14817 Champlain Ave Dolton, IL	2.0	1.0	980	$2,430	$2.48	22d	1	0.87mi
1450 E 154th Pl Dolton, IL	1.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	25d	1	0.88mi
16246 Dobson Ave South Holland, IL	3.0	2.0	1250	$3,170	$2.54	2d	1	0.99mi
14716 Dorchester Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,800	$2.24	20d	1	1.28mi
14502 Cottage Grove Ave Unit 1S Dolton, IL	1.0	1.0	900	$1,425	$1.58	8d	1	1.31mi
14500 Cottage Grove Ave Unit 3 Dolton, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,475	$1.48	25d	1	1.31mi
14738 Blackstone Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	1.0	1017	$2,400	$2.36	11d	1	1.32mi
14844 Wabash Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	1.5	1277	$2,320	$1.82	25d	1	1.40mi
660 Clyde Ave Calumet City, IL	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,750	$1.25	3d	1	1.45mi
14610 Blackstone Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	1.0	1017	$2,400	$2.36	7d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   listed $135,000 Active
3. 2007-06-30
   historical
4. 2007-02-08
   listed
5. 1998-05-04
   soldstatus $72,500
6. 1993-10-08
   soldstatus $66,000
7. 1986-06-01
   soldstatus $48,000
8. 1979-08-15
   soldstatus $94,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,521 · $377/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,521 · $377/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,834
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$4,521
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,987
• − Management: −$1,987
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $4,175
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,002
• After-tax cash flow: $4,925/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — South Holland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #3071

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Holland, IL
• City population: 21,407
• Population (ZIP): 21,407

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.36%
• Current HPI: 201.2479
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+43.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Listed $135,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-30 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-08 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records
• 1993-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 1986-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 1979-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2023): $4,521 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.