SIERRA BONUS Plan · Yulee, FL 32097

$479,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,663 sqft · SingleFamily · 366 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Key facts

• Onsite swimming pool
• Fitness center
• Natural landmarks

Tags

• ONSITE SWIMMING POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITY
• EASY ACCESS TO JAX AIRPORT
• RIVER CITY SHOPPING CENTER
• NATURAL LANDMARKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Active listing; Inventory type: Plan
• Financial info: List price $479,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home plan (SIERRA BONUS)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2663; Address: 75725 Lily Pond Ct, Yulee, FL 32097

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full baths and 1 half bath (3.5 total)
• Interior features: New construction plan (SIERRA BONUS)

🏗️ New construction. The $479,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $482,003.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $480k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-995 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $338k (29.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (38.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $296k (38.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 596 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$83k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 366 days — a 12% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,711 (38.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 366 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.85%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $482,003
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
75197 Pondside Ln	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,660 (-0%)	0mo	$485,000	$182	84
75077 Pondside Ln	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,659 (-0%)	2mo	$480,000	$181	75
75556 Canterwood Dr	0.38mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,640 (-1%)	1mo	$465,000	$176	73
75547 Cloverwood Ct	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,370 (-11%)	3mo	$430,000	$181	66
75844 Walking Path Ln	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,656 (-0%)	2mo	$459,000	$173	63
75751 Bayley Pl	0.68mi	4/3.5	2,772 (+4%)	1mo	$474,606	$171	61
75639 Bayley Pl	0.72mi	4/3.5	2,772 (+4%)	0mo	$434,140	$157	60
75687 Bayley Pl	0.71mi	4/3.5	2,772 (+4%)	1mo	$449,230	$162	59
75263 Weathersford Pl	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,288 (-14%)	1mo	$440,000	$192	56
75598 Banyan Way	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,390 (-10%)	2mo	$469,290	$196	55
75791 Bayley Pl	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,390 (-10%)	2mo	$461,780	$193	48
75013 Pondside Ln	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,295 (-14%)	3mo	$378,000	$165	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $198,834
• Equity at exit: $434,226

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.70×
• Total profit: $634,732
• Equity at exit: $936,426

Cash invested: $134,961 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32097

• Home prices YoY: 19.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 596
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,957 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,528
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$603 /mo · $7,230/yr
• Insurance: −$201
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$621
• Net cashflow: $-995

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,216

Max offer price $338,040

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $120,501
• Closing costs: $14,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
75470 Sunberry Dr Yulee, FL	5.0	4.0	2903	$3,150	$1.09	20d	1	0.34mi
75094 Fern Creek Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	2193	$2,495	$1.14	2d	1	1.04mi
75094 Glenspring Way Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	2055	$2,500	$1.22	24d	1	1.10mi
75047 Brookwood Dr Yulee, FL	5.0	3.0	3300	$3,405	$1.03	4d	1	1.11mi
76195 Deerwood Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.5	2757	$2,475	$0.90	24d	1	1.16mi
65013 Lagoon Forest Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,800	$1.25	11d	1	1.18mi
75008 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,300	$1.24	24d	1	1.24mi
75215 Fern Creek Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.5	2898	$2,900	$1.00	14d	1	1.27mi
75075 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,399	$1.29	4d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $479,990 Active 366 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $479,990 Active 365 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $479,990 Active 364 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $479,990 Active 363 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $479,990 Active 361 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $479,990 Active 360 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $479,990 Active 357 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $479,990 Active 356 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $479,990 Active 355 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $479,990 Active 352 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $479,990 Active 351 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $479,990 Active 350 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $479,990 Active 349 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $479,990 Active 348 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,485
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,000
• − Property taxes: −$7,230
• − Insurance: −$2,410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,839
• − Management: −$2,839
• − Depreciation: −$14,022
• Taxable loss: −$20,854
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,005
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,934/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Yulee

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #11615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 26,700
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,700
• Household income: $93,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.35%
• Current HPI: 301.9299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B