3800 Saxon Dr Unit B13 · New Smyrna Beach, FL 32169

$289,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 838 sqft · Condo · 153 Days on market

Built 1974 Good condition $345/sqft · 24% below area Est $380k · 24% under $412/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW PRICE - Welcome to easy coastal living close to the beach, dining, and shopping in beautiful New Smyrna Beach. This 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath condominium features a bright open floor plan that seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas—perfect for everyday comfort or entertaining. The updated kitchen offers a clean, modern design while remaining open to the main living space. Both bedrooms are well-sized, and the convenient half bath adds functionality for guests and daily living. Located in a quiet, well-maintained building with low HOA dues, this property provides an ideal opportunity for a primary residence, beach getaway, or investment property. Just minutes from New Smyrna Beach’s pristine shoreline, restaurants, and shopping, you’ll enjoy the relaxed coastal lifestyle this charming community is known for. A great value near the beach with comfort, convenience, and affordability. ??

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Minutes from beach
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• LOW HOA DUES
• MINUTES FROM BEACH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $289k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-936 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (46.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (46.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.8% in New Smyrna Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#474 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coronado Beach Elementary School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A-, #288 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 223 students, 36% FRL); New Smyrna Beach Middle School (math 43% / reading 43%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 1,037 students, 53% FRL); New Smyrna Beach High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 1,810 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 582 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $289k implies a 478% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,599 (46.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.55%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $380,000
• List price: $289,000
• Delta: -23.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3405 S Atlantic Ave #501	0.42mi	1/1.0 (-1)	768 (-8%)	0mo	$300,000	$391	59
4175 S Atlantic Ave #5270	0.58mi	1/1.0 (-1)	766 (-9%)	0mo	$380,000	$496	51
4151 S Atlantic Ave #511	0.48mi	2/2.0	977 (+17%)	0mo	$475,000	$486	51
4175 S Atlantic Ave #509	0.61mi	1/1.0 (-1)	766 (-9%)	0mo	$310,000	$405	50
4405 Sea Mist Dr #218	1.04mi	1/1.0 (-1)	891 (+6%)	0mo	$235,000	$264	47
4313 Sea Mist Dr #260	0.83mi	2/2.0	1,028 (+23%)	0mo	$415,000	$404	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-100,511
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.72×
• Total profit: $-139,009
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 4 under contract
• Median asking: $489,900 ($501/sqft)
• Median days on market: 350 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -9.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32169

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 582
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,405 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$361 /mo · $4,335/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$412
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-936

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,590

Max offer price $153,599

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-736	-5% $-836	+0% $-936	+5% $-1,036	+10% $-1,135
Rent	-10% $-1,126	-5% $-1,031	+0% $-936	+5% $-841	+10% $-746
Rate	-1.0pp $-790	-0.5pp $-862	base $-936	+0.5pp $-1,011	+1.0pp $-1,087

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3800 Saxon Dr New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	838	$2,100	$2.51	72d	1	0.04mi
3800 Saxon Dr Unit 1545928P New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	893	$2,185	$2.45	63d	1	0.04mi
3307 Saxon Dr New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	854	$1,975	$2.31	72d	1	0.29mi
834 E 25th Ave New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1007	$2,600	$2.58	41d	1	0.34mi
834 E 25th Ave New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1007	$2,600	$2.58	63d	1	0.34mi
3801 S Atlantic Ave Unit 107 New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$6,000	$6.58	72d	1	0.34mi
4175 S Atlantic Ave New Smyrna Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	950	$2,900	$3.05	72d	1	0.58mi
4175 S Atlantic Ave #3160 New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	788	$3,000	$3.81	72d	1	0.58mi
906 11th Ave New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$3,500	$3.50	72d	1	1.20mi
814 E 10th Ave New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	970	$2,600	$2.68	72d	1	1.23mi
4501 S Atlantic Ave #513 New Smyrna Beach, FL	1.0	2.0	928	$3,000	$3.23	41d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail $412/mo · $4,944/yr condo

• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $289,000 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $289,000 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $289,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $289,000 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $289,000 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $289,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $289,000 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $289,000 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $289,000 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $289,000 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $289,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $289,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $289,000 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $289,000 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $289,000 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $289,000 Active 130 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $289,000 Active 129 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $289,000 Active 128 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $289,000 Active 127 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $289,000 Active 126 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $289,000 Active 125 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $289,000 Active 124 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $289,000 Active 123 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $289,000 Active 121 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $289,000 Active 120 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $289,000 Active 119 DOM
27. 2026-07-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 117 DOM
28. 2026-07-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 116 DOM
29. 2026-07-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 115 DOM
30. 2026-06-30
    days on market $289,000 Active 114 DOM
31. 2026-06-29
    days on market $289,000 Active 113 DOM
32. 2026-06-28
    days on market $289,000 Active 112 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $289,000 Active 111 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $289,000 Active 110 DOM
35. 2026-06-25
    days on market $289,000 Active 108 DOM
36. 2026-06-23
    days on market $289,000 Active 106 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $289,000 Active 105 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $289,000 Active 102 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $289,000 Active 101 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $289,000 Active 100 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $289,000 Active 99 DOM
42. 2026-06-14
    days on market $289,000 Active 97 DOM
43. 2026-06-10
    days on market $289,000 Active 94 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $289,000 Active 93 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $289,000 Active 92 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,000 Active 91 DOM
47. 2026-06-05
    days on market $289,000 Active 88 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 87 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 86 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 85 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$4,335
• − Insurance: −$6,564
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,309
• − Management: −$2,309
• − HOA: −$4,944
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$16,195
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,887
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,190–$12,570 screening

This well-maintained and updated condo is ready for move-in and offers a great value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Coronado Beach Elementary School A- FL #288/2,144 Nat'l #2,792/41,679 Middle New Smyrna Beach Middle School D- FL #331/571 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High New Smyrna Beach High School F FL #255/667 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Volusia
• NCES district ID: 1201920
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,946
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4019
• State rank: #47 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — New Smyrna Beach

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #474
• US rank: #8577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Smyrna Beach, FL
• County: Volusia County · 572,749 people
• City population: 42,039
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,192
• Household income: $110,968
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Volusia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 572,749 people
• By 2030: 598,695 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 644,880 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 681,451 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 759,957 · +32.7%
• By 2100: 778,902 · +36.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Volusia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.7% · R 60.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: 5.7pp · 2024: -21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.8 2020: R+14.1 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+1.2 2008: D+5.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -297.06%
• Current HPI: 345.3555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.17%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+426.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $289,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-08 Listed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-10-28 Sold (MLS) $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-10-28 Sold (MLS) $50,000 NSBMLS
• 1998-08-28 Listed $54,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-08-28 Listed $54,900 NSBMLS