309 Spruce St · Bay City, MI 48706

$32,400

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,098 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1900 3,485 sqft lot $30/sqft · 71% below area ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity for investors looking to add value. This traditional ranch home offers approximately 1,280 sq ft with 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath. The property features a full basement and sits on a city lot with paved access and public utilities including water and sewer. Solid structure with classic layout and strong potential for renovation, rental income, or resale. Convenient location within Bay City with easy access to major roads, schools, and local amenities.

Key facts

• City lot
• Full basement
• Paved access

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• CITY LOT
• PAVED ACCESS
• PUBLIC UTILITIES
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $32k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $907 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $32k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 39.9% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $224 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $972 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $73k (69%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $31,428 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 119.93%
• DSCR: 6.34
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,597
• List price: $32,400
• Delta: -71.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
427 James St	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,088 (-1%)	3mo	$131,000	$120	81
202 Elm St	0.10mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (-5%)	1mo	$72,000	$69	80
705 Sidney St	0.35mi	2/1.5	1,008 (-8%)	0mo	$175,000	$174	68
222 E Murphy St	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,156 (+5%)	3mo	$212,000	$183	65
1115 Litchfield St	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,012 (-8%)	3mo	$122,000	$121	64
118 AUSABLE STATE Rd	0.47mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,131 (+3%)	3mo	$155,000	$137	64
402 State St	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-9%)	3mo	$109,000	$109	63
809 N LINN St	0.53mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,029 (-6%)	2mo	$92,500	$90	56
1106 Lewis St	0.58mi	2/1.0	1,203 (+10%)	3mo	$60,000	$50	54
602 Transit St	0.70mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,056 (-4%)	1mo	$156,500	$148	53
1107 Bradfield St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,224 (+12%)	3mo	$133,500	$109	47
1304 LENG St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+9%)	3mo	$98,000	$82	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.79×
• Total profit: $52,537
• Equity at exit: $4,831

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.26×
• Total profit: $120,269
• Equity at exit: $2,801

Cash invested: $9,072 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,467 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$170
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $827/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $907

Break-even live

Break-even rent $319

Max offer price $32,400

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,100
• Closing costs: $972
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	43d	1	0.73mi
605 E Jane St Bay City, MI	1.0	1.0	754	$1,650	$2.19	43d	1	1.08mi
800 McKinley St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	796	$925	$1.16	43d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $32,400 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $32,400 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $32,500 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $32,500 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $32,500 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-05-13
   price $39,500 472-char remark
7. 2026-05-13
   price $39,500 472-char remark
8. 2026-05-13
   price $39,500
9. 2026-04-28
   price $44,900 472-char remark
10. 2026-04-28
    price $44,900
11. 2026-04-28
    listed $44,900 Active 472-char remark
12. 2026-04-28
    listed $105,000 Active 472-char remark
13. 2026-04-28
    listed $105,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $827 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $827 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,815
• − Property taxes: −$827
• − Insurance: −$162
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,408
• − Management: −$1,408
• − Depreciation: −$943
• Taxable income: $11,042
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,650
• After-tax cash flow: $8,230/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-27.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $32,400 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $32,400 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $32,400 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $32,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $32,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $32,500 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $34,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $34,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $34,500 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $39,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $39,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $39,500 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $44,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $44,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $105,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-28 Listed $44,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $827 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.