5038 E Vienna Rd · Thetford, MI 48420

$87,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,514 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 1957 1.83 ac lot $57/sqft · 58% below area ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 1.5 bath ranch style home in Clio school district. This home features 1500 Sq ft of living space, unfinished basement, 2 car garage and nearly 2 acres of land. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. The condition of the property may not support the connection of utilities and no repairs will be done by the purchaser or seller to make the property available for connection or de-winterization.

Key facts

• 1.83 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1957

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as residential single-family; Cross streets: Genesee & Bray
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Built with other construction materials
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 1.83 acres; Lot dimensions about 250 x 395

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Fireplace in the living room; Basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $87k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $87k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Clio Area School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #269 of 540 in MI (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $601 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $84,390 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.20%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,087
• List price: $87,000
• Delta: -57.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5091 E Vienna Rd	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,408 (-7%)	8mo	$110,000	$78	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $3,087
• Equity at exit: $12,972

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $25,134
• Equity at exit: $7,522

Cash invested: $24,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48420

• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$456
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,152/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $956

Max offer price $87,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $317	-5% $293	+0% $268	+5% $243	+10% $219
Rent	-10% $166	-5% $217	+0% $268	+5% $319	+10% $370
Rate	-1.0pp $312	-0.5pp $290	base $268	+0.5pp $245	+1.0pp $223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,750
• Closing costs: $2,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $87,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $87,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $87,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $87,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $87,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $87,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $87,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $87,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $87,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $87,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $90,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $90,000 Active 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1.5 bath ranch style home in Clio school district. This home features 1500 Sq ft of living space, unfinished basement, 2 car garage and nearly 2 acres of land. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. The condition of the property may not support the connection of utilities and no repairs will be done by the purchaser or seller to make the property available for connection or de-winterization.

17. 2026-05-07
    listed $90,000 Active 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1.5 bath ranch style home in Clio school district. This home features 1500 Sq ft of living space, unfinished basement, 2 car garage and nearly 2 acres of land. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. The condition of the property may not support the connection of utilities and no repairs will be done by the purchaser or seller to make the property available for connection or de-winterization.

18. 2021-12-08
    soldstatus $139,000
19. 2021-11-16
    soldstatus $139,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Sitting on 2.26 wooded acres you will find this great ranch home featuring 1600 sq. ft. , 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms with 9 foot ceilings & hardwoods throughout under carpeting. Firelit living room, formal dining room and a spacious kitchen. 2+ car attached garage with breezeway between home & garage is perfect for organization. This home has great bones! Lots of room to roam & enjoy nature.

20. 2021-11-16
    soldstatus $139,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Sitting on 2.26 wooded acres you will find this great ranch home featuring 1600 sq. ft. , 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms with 9 foot ceilings & hardwoods throughout under carpeting. Firelit living room, formal dining room and a spacious kitchen. 2+ car attached garage with breezeway between home & garage is perfect for organization. This home has great bones! Lots of room to roam & enjoy nature.

21. 2021-09-07
    historical Accepting Backup Offers

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Sitting on 2.26 wooded acres you will find this great ranch home featuring 1600 sq. ft. , 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms with 9 foot ceilings & hardwoods throughout under carpeting. Firelit living room, formal dining room and a spacious kitchen. 2+ car attached garage with breezeway between home & garage is perfect for organization. This home has great bones! Lots of room to roam & enjoy nature.

22. 2021-09-07
    historical Accepting Backup Offers

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Sitting on 2.26 wooded acres you will find this great ranch home featuring 1600 sq. ft. , 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms with 9 foot ceilings & hardwoods throughout under carpeting. Firelit living room, formal dining room and a spacious kitchen. 2+ car attached garage with breezeway between home & garage is perfect for organization. This home has great bones! Lots of room to roam & enjoy nature.

23. 2021-09-02
    listed $139,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Sitting on 2.26 wooded acres you will find this great ranch home featuring 1600 sq. ft. , 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms with 9 foot ceilings & hardwoods throughout under carpeting. Firelit living room, formal dining room and a spacious kitchen. 2+ car attached garage with breezeway between home & garage is perfect for organization. This home has great bones! Lots of room to roam & enjoy nature.

24. 2021-09-02
    listed $139,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Sitting on 2.26 wooded acres you will find this great ranch home featuring 1600 sq. ft. , 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms with 9 foot ceilings & hardwoods throughout under carpeting. Firelit living room, formal dining room and a spacious kitchen. 2+ car attached garage with breezeway between home & garage is perfect for organization. This home has great bones! Lots of room to roam & enjoy nature.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,152 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,152 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,541
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,873
• − Property taxes: −$3,152
• − Insurance: −$435
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,243
• − Management: −$1,243
• − Depreciation: −$2,531
• Taxable income: $2,064
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$495
• After-tax cash flow: $2,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clio Area School District
• NCES district ID: 2610110
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,368
• Composite: 30.83/100
• National rank: #6134
• State rank: #269 of 540 in MI

Livability — Thetford

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 21,213

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.27%
• Current HPI: 186.7816
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-37.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $87,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $87,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-07 Listed $90,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-07 Listed $90,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-16 Sold (MLS) $139,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-11-16 Sold (MLS) $139,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-09-07 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-09-07 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2021-09-02 Listed $139,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-09-02 Listed $139,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+22.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,152 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.