696 Burlingham Rd · Walker Valley, NY 12721

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1900 0.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Old world charmer is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. Still offering the characteristics found in a home built in the 1900's. Formal living room with bay window,original hardwood floors and beamed ceilings. Formal diningroom off the kitchen has build in shelving and hard wood floors. Large Eat in kitchen with plenty of storage and separate laundry area. Keeping with tradition the 3 bedrooms and full bath are located on the second floor. Easy access to Rte 17 Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

Key facts

• Usable lot
• Commuter routes
• Traditional layout

Tags

• PINE BUSH SCHOOL DISTRICT
• HANDYMAN SPECIAL
• TRADITIONAL LAYOUT
• USABLE LOT
• LOCAL AMENITIES
• COMMUTER ROUTES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $836 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 1.8% in Walker Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#517 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pine Bush Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #468 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Bush Elementary School (math 12% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,771 of 2,108 statewide, top 84%, 649 students, 53% FRL); Crispell Middle School (math 17% / reading 46%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 633 students, 52% FRL); Pine Bush Senior High School (math 92% / reading 67%, grade A-, #518 of 1,100 statewide, top 51%, 1,615 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 29% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $140k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $137,900 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.60%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $530,136
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13 Hamilton Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-14%)	4mo	$455,000	$398	63
33 Walker Valley Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-3%)	20mo	$400,000	$309	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $30,708
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $95,884
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12721

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,496 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$343 /mo · $4,118/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $836

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,438

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $915	-5% $876	+0% $836	+5% $796	+10% $757
Rent	-10% $639	-5% $738	+0% $836	+5% $935	+10% $1,033
Rate	-1.0pp $907	-0.5pp $872	base $836	+0.5pp $800	+1.0pp $763

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-10
   listed $140,000 Active
3. 2017-01-19
   soldstatus $35,000 519-char remark

   Show marketing remark (463 chars)

   Old world charmer is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. Still offering the characteristics found in a home built in the 1900's. Formal living room with bay window, original hardwood floors and beamed ceilings. Formal diningroom off the kitchen has build in shelving and hard wood floors. Large Eat in kitchen with plenty of storage and separate laundry area. Keeping with tradition the 3 bedrooms and full bath are located on the second floor. Easy access to Rte 17

4. 2017-01-19
   soldstatus $35,000 463-char remark

   Show marketing remark (463 chars)

   Old world charmer is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. Still offering the characteristics found in a home built in the 1900's. Formal living room with bay window, original hardwood floors and beamed ceilings. Formal diningroom off the kitchen has build in shelving and hard wood floors. Large Eat in kitchen with plenty of storage and separate laundry area. Keeping with tradition the 3 bedrooms and full bath are located on the second floor. Easy access to Rte 17

5. 2016-12-13
   historical 463-char remark

   Show marketing remark (463 chars)

   Old world charmer is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. Still offering the characteristics found in a home built in the 1900's. Formal living room with bay window, original hardwood floors and beamed ceilings. Formal diningroom off the kitchen has build in shelving and hard wood floors. Large Eat in kitchen with plenty of storage and separate laundry area. Keeping with tradition the 3 bedrooms and full bath are located on the second floor. Easy access to Rte 17

6. 2016-06-29
   listed $39,900 519-char remark

   Show marketing remark (463 chars)

   Old world charmer is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. Still offering the characteristics found in a home built in the 1900's. Formal living room with bay window, original hardwood floors and beamed ceilings. Formal diningroom off the kitchen has build in shelving and hard wood floors. Large Eat in kitchen with plenty of storage and separate laundry area. Keeping with tradition the 3 bedrooms and full bath are located on the second floor. Easy access to Rte 17

7. 2016-06-29
   listed $39,900 463-char remark

   Show marketing remark (463 chars)

   Old world charmer is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. Still offering the characteristics found in a home built in the 1900's. Formal living room with bay window, original hardwood floors and beamed ceilings. Formal diningroom off the kitchen has build in shelving and hard wood floors. Large Eat in kitchen with plenty of storage and separate laundry area. Keeping with tradition the 3 bedrooms and full bath are located on the second floor. Easy access to Rte 17

8. 1997-08-04
   soldstatus $55,000
9. 1983-06-02
   soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,118 · $343/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,118 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$4,118
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,396
• − Management: −$2,396
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $8,426
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,022
• After-tax cash flow: $8,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Bush Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3623010
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $72,525
• Composite: 37.87/100
• National rank: #4324
• State rank: #468 of 590 in NY

Livability — Walker Valley

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #517
• US rank: #9174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,590

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scandinavian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · German/W. Germanic 12% Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.80%
• Current HPI: 320.383
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1066.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-10 Listed $140,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-19 Sold (MLS) $35,000 HGMLS
• 2017-01-19 Sold (MLS) $35,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-13 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2016-06-29 Listed $39,900 HGMLS
• 2016-06-29 Listed $39,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1983-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,118 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.