123 Ensenada Dr · Novato, CA 94949

$350,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured · 139 Days on market

Built 1965 Good condition $224/sqft · at area comps Est $351k · at est. ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away at the end of the street and overlooking a lush garden, this home offers a rare sense of privacy and tranquility. Four parking spaces in front make it easy to welcomeguests. There's a storage shed with a skylight and additional storage at the front of the home for all your extras.Inside, a spacious kitchen opens to an inviting living and dining area. The home features two full baths, a generous primary suite with a wall of closet space, a second bedroom, and an expanded addition currently used as a home office adding valuable flexibility and square footage. Extensively upgraded, the home includes fire-resistant Hardy siding, a pitched composition shingle roof, central heating and air conditioning, an on-demand water heater, and updated electrical and plumbing. New carpeting, interior laundry, and abundant storage add comfort and convenience. Enjoy indoor outdoor living with a covered patio and serene garden in your own private oasis. Located in the gated 55+ Los Robles community, residents enjoy an outdoor pool, spa, sauna and shuffleboard court. Los Robles has a clubhouse with library, ping-pong, pool table, puzzle collection and a full calendar of monthly activities all conveniently close to Highway 101 and nearby shopping and dining.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Storage shed
• Covered patio

Tags

• STORAGE SHED
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• EXPANDED ADDITION
• FIRE-RESISTANT HARDIE SIDING
• ON-DEMAND WATER HEATER
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $350k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $501 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $350k).
• Recommended offer: $308k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.4% in Novato — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#211 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Novato Unified (suburban): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #160 of 517 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 75 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 149 units permitted in Marin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marin County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $308,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.14%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $351,000
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -0.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
209 Barcelona Way	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,536 (-2%)	13mo	$400,000	$260	84
313 San Sebastian Way	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	14mo	$170,000	$118	72
715 Seville Way	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	6mo	$385,000	$267	71
502 Vera Cruz Ave	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	14mo	$332,000	$231	70
410 San Paulo Way	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	15mo	$242,775	$169	69
708 Seville Way	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,392 (-11%)	5mo	$351,000	$252	67
3 Oceano Pl	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	11mo	$340,000	$253	63
524 Vera Cruz Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-12%)	12mo	$405,000	$296	62
311 San Sebastian Way	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	15mo	$358,600	$267	61
713 Seville Way	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	23mo	$215,000	$149	58
113 Ensenada Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	23mo	$260,000	$193	56
811 Las Palmas Ave	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	23mo	$349,000	$260	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-31,819
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-14,314
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94949

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,696 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$438 /mo · $5,250/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$776
• Net cashflow: $501

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,062

Max offer price $350,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Posada del Sol Novato, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	1125	$2,738	$2.43	1d	1	0.56mi
235 Posada del Sol Novato, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,225	$2.69	1d	1	0.66mi
108 Ignacio Valley Cir Novato, CA	3.0	2.5	1801	$4,600	$2.55	18d	1	0.84mi
1033 Susan Way Novato, CA	3.0	3.0	1813	$4,250	$2.34	24d	1	1.12mi
98 Gann Way Novato, CA	2.0	2.5	1428	$3,950	$2.77	43d	1	1.13mi
301 Capetown Ct Novato, CA	3.0	1.5	1323	$3,400	$2.57	43d	1	1.14mi
75 Gann Way Novato, CA	3.0	2.5	1822	$5,000	$2.74	14d	1	1.15mi
9 Quince Ct Novato, CA	3.0	2.0	1566	$4,695	$3.00	43d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $350,000 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $350,000 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $350,000 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $350,000 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $350,000 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    price $350,000 1269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1269 chars)

    Tucked away at the end of the street and overlooking a lush garden, this home offers a rare sense of privacy and tranquility. Four parking spaces in front make it easy to welcomeguests. There's a storage shed with a skylight and additional storage at the front of the home for all your extras.Inside, a spacious kitchen opens to an inviting living and dining area. The home features two full baths, a generous primary suite with a wall of closet space, a second bedroom, and an expanded addition currently used as a home office adding valuable flexibility and square footage. Extensively upgraded, the home includes fire-resistant Hardy siding, a pitched composition shingle roof, central heating and air conditioning, an on-demand water heater, and updated electrical and plumbing. New carpeting, interior laundry, and abundant storage add comfort and convenience. Enjoy indoor outdoor living with a covered patio and serene garden in your own private oasis. Located in the gated 55+ Los Robles community, residents enjoy an outdoor pool, spa, sauna and shuffleboard court. Los Robles has a clubhouse with library, ping-pong, pool table, puzzle collection and a full calendar of monthly activities all conveniently close to Highway 101 and nearby shopping and dining.

16. 2026-03-17
    price $395,000 1269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1269 chars)

    Tucked away at the end of the street and overlooking a lush garden, this home offers a rare sense of privacy and tranquility. Four parking spaces in front make it easy to welcomeguests. There's a storage shed with a skylight and additional storage at the front of the home for all your extras.Inside, a spacious kitchen opens to an inviting living and dining area. The home features two full baths, a generous primary suite with a wall of closet space, a second bedroom, and an expanded addition currently used as a home office adding valuable flexibility and square footage. Extensively upgraded, the home includes fire-resistant Hardy siding, a pitched composition shingle roof, central heating and air conditioning, an on-demand water heater, and updated electrical and plumbing. New carpeting, interior laundry, and abundant storage add comfort and convenience. Enjoy indoor outdoor living with a covered patio and serene garden in your own private oasis. Located in the gated 55+ Los Robles community, residents enjoy an outdoor pool, spa, sauna and shuffleboard court. Los Robles has a clubhouse with library, ping-pong, pool table, puzzle collection and a full calendar of monthly activities all conveniently close to Highway 101 and nearby shopping and dining.

17. 2026-01-30
    listed $425,000 Active 1269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1269 chars)

    Tucked away at the end of the street and overlooking a lush garden, this home offers a rare sense of privacy and tranquility. Four parking spaces in front make it easy to welcomeguests. There's a storage shed with a skylight and additional storage at the front of the home for all your extras.Inside, a spacious kitchen opens to an inviting living and dining area. The home features two full baths, a generous primary suite with a wall of closet space, a second bedroom, and an expanded addition currently used as a home office adding valuable flexibility and square footage. Extensively upgraded, the home includes fire-resistant Hardy siding, a pitched composition shingle roof, central heating and air conditioning, an on-demand water heater, and updated electrical and plumbing. New carpeting, interior laundry, and abundant storage add comfort and convenience. Enjoy indoor outdoor living with a covered patio and serene garden in your own private oasis. Located in the gated 55+ Los Robles community, residents enjoy an outdoor pool, spa, sauna and shuffleboard court. Los Robles has a clubhouse with library, ping-pong, pool table, puzzle collection and a full calendar of monthly activities all conveniently close to Highway 101 and nearby shopping and dining.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,353
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$5,250
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,548
• − Management: −$3,548
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable income: $470
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$113
• After-tax cash flow: $5,901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, updated home offers a good condition with a good ROI for both resale and rental due to its location, privacy, and upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Novato Unified
• NCES district ID: 0627720
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $84,396
• Composite: 41.06/100
• National rank: #3576
• State rank: #160 of 517 in CA

Livability — Novato

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #211
• US rank: #6675

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Novato, CA
• County: Marin County · 243,328 people
• City population: 59,522
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,787
• Household income: $120,758
• Rent vs Own: 36.9% rent · 63.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 776.0

Population outlook (Marin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 276,379 people
• By 2030: 282,942 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 292,937 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 300,449 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 316,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 303,948 · +10.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 16% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 5% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+63.9) · D 80.6% · R 16.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: 57.7pp · 2024: 63.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+63.9 2020: D+66.5 2016: D+62.9 2012: D+50.5 2008: D+57.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -670.06%
• Current HPI: 299.6555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-17.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $350,000 BAREIS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $395,000 BAREIS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $425,000 BAREIS