5309 Fernpark Ave · Baltimore, MD 21207

$169,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1923 8,000 sqft lot $127/sqft · 47% below area Est $322k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Open to ALL BIDDERS- INVESTORS WELCOME HUD case number 244-011970. Equal Housing Opportunity. Property is listed as UI (Property requires more than $10,000 in repairs and is not eligible for FHA mortgage insurance) HUD may contribute up to 3% of buyer’s closing cost. HUD property sold fully as-is. Information provided must be verified by all perspective purchasers. Buyer is responsible for utility activation and de-winterization at their expense. All transfer taxes to be paid by buyer, Seller will not redeem ground rent if one exists. This prime opportunity for buyers looking to renovate and build equity 3 beds and 2 full bathrooms with a solid structure and functional layout, the home is in need of repairs and updates, making it ideal for savvy owner-occupants using renovation financing. Located in an established neighborhood with convenient access to shopping, dining, and major commuter routes, this property has strong upside potential. Sold strictly as-is—bring your vision and unlock the value! " Equal Housing Opportunity"

Key facts

• 8,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1923
• Listed 28 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 132 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (9.5% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,465 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.55%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $321,878
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -47.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5522 Bosworth Ave	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,305 (-2%)	2mo	$220,000	$169	82
5318 Belleville Ave	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,251 (-6%)	3mo	$275,877	$221	74
4906 Haddon Ave	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,347 (+1%)	2mo	$132,000	$98	72
5318 Norwood Ave	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,400 (+5%)	2mo	$325,000	$232	67
3009 Milford	0.45mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,338 (+1%)	10mo	$162,000	$121	64
3102 Brightwood Ave	0.41mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,338 (+1%)	4mo	$365,000	$273	63
5619 Wayne Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,434 (+8%)	13mo	$220,000	$153	59
4909 Haddon Ave	0.45mi	3/3.5	1,320 (-1%)	12mo	$338,000	$256	58
2504 Parkview Rd	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,292 (-3%)	9mo	$312,500	$242	53
3104 Brightwood Ave	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,363 (+3%)	19mo	$249,000	$183	52
4006 N Rogers Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,511 (+14%)	16mo	$325,000	$215	32
3615 Milford Ave	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,521 (+14%)	18mo	$305,000	$201	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.5% appreciation · 5.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $101,965
• Equity at exit: $146,119

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.33×
• Total profit: $299,356
• Equity at exit: $308,808

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21207

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,822 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$304 /mo · $3,643/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,595

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $275	-5% $227	+0% $179	+5% $131	+10% $84
Rent	-10% $35	-5% $107	+0% $179	+5% $251	+10% $323
Rate	-1.0pp $264	-0.5pp $222	base $179	+0.5pp $136	+1.0pp $91

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5533 Gwynn Oak Ave Fl 1 Gwynn Oak, MD	2.0	1.0	1080	$1,600	$1.48	44d	1	0.35mi
3535 Flannery Ln Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	1.5	1536	$2,000	$1.30	44d	1	0.44mi
3601 Howard Park Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	44d	1	0.45mi
3807 Bowers Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	1.5	1152	$2,200	$1.91	44d	1	0.49mi
3727 Milford Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	44d	1	0.53mi
4998 W Forest Park Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	790	$1,875	$2.37	16d	15	0.67mi
3617 Mohawk Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	44d	1	0.75mi
3615 Mohawk Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,610	$1.61	44d	1	0.75mi
6226 Robin Hill Rd Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	1.5	1140	$2,850	$2.50	17d	1	0.79mi
4738 Wakefield Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	884	$1,200	$1.36	25d	1	0.98mi
4309 Norfolk Ave Unit 1st Floor Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1470	$1,500	$1.02	12d	1	1.04mi
1 Janper Ct Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	950	$1,500	$1.58	4d	1	1.14mi
3915 Liberty Heights Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	680	$1,345	$1.98	13d	5	1.15mi
4010 Fernhill Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	1.15mi
6463 Woodgreen Cir Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	2.5	1230	$1,900	$1.54	19d	1	1.20mi
6330 Windsor Mill Rd Woodlawn, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	44d	1	1.25mi
2 Mountbatten Ct Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	2.0	1000	$2,200	$2.20	4d	1	1.29mi
1 Duke of Windsor Ct Gwynn Oak, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,984	$2.56	4d	20	1.40mi
5006 Windsor Mill Rd Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	776	$1,899	$2.45	3d	18	1.42mi
5215 Muth Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	3.0	1205	$2,700	$2.24	16d	1	1.43mi
5136 Oaklawn Rd Gwynn Oak, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	896	$1,710	$1.91	3d	22	1.46mi
3101 Windsor Blvd Gwynn Oak, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$1,755	$2.08	3d	55	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $169,000 Pending 28 DOM
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $169,000 Active 1064-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1064 chars)

   Open to ALL BIDDERS- INVESTORS WELCOME HUD case number 244-011970. Equal Housing Opportunity. Property is listed as UI (Property requires more than $10,000 in repairs and is not eligible for FHA mortgage insurance) HUD may contribute up to 3% of buyer’s closing cost. HUD property sold fully as-is. Information provided must be verified by all perspective purchasers. Buyer is responsible for utility activation and de-winterization at their expense. All transfer taxes to be paid by buyer, Seller will not redeem ground rent if one exists. This prime opportunity for buyers looking to renovate and build equity 3 beds and 2 full bathrooms with a solid structure and functional layout, the home is in need of repairs and updates, making it ideal for savvy owner-occupants using renovation financing. Located in an established neighborhood with convenient access to shopping, dining, and major commuter routes, this property has strong upside potential. Sold strictly as-is—bring your vision and unlock the value! " Equal Housing Opportunity"

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,643 · $304/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,643 · $304/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$3,643
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,749
• − Management: −$1,749
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$503
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$121
• After-tax cash flow: $2,273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 47,099
• Household income: $67,060
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2139.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 78% White 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Swedish 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Philippines, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.50%
• Current HPI: 843.63
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.23%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $169,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,643 · +14.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.