602 5th St NW · Aitkin, MN 56431

$50,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,018 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1950 8,232 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This is an Auction property to be sold onsite Friday May 29th at 12:00 PM. A wonderful opportunity to own this 3 bedroom 1 bath home in the heart Aitkin. The property sits on a quiet dead-end street, the home has a newer steel roof and comes with a 24x40 pole shed with concrete floor. Modern upgraded kitchen, large back deck & screened in gazebo to enjoy the summer evenings. This would make a great starter home or rental property! A must See!

Key facts

• Pole shed
• Steel roof
• Back deck

Tags

• STEEL ROOF
• POLE SHED
• BACK DECK
• SCREENED IN GAZEBO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 3-car garage
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; One-story main level with an upper bedroom; Main entry on the main level
• Construction: Block foundation; Total building area about 1,800 square feet; Above-grade finished area approximately 1,000 square feet
• Exterior features: Lot roughly 0.189 acres (approximately 50 x 165)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (two on the main level, one on the upper level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Main-level dining room; Main-level living room; Main-level kitchen; Upper-level bedroom; Block foundation basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement utilities (block foundation)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $583 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.3% vs local median 3.1% in Aitkin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#193 in MN, #4,127 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Aitkin Public School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #84 of 301 in MN (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rippleside Elementary (math 55% / reading 57%, grade C+, #304 of 857 statewide, top 36%, 493 students, 54% FRL); Aitkin Secondary School (math 52% / reading 50%, grade D+, #127 of 471 statewide, top 27%, 526 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 34% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 134 units permitted in Aitkin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Aitkin County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.94%
• DSCR: 3.22
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.44% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.17×
• Total profit: $44,319
• Equity at exit: $23,731

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.45×
• Total profit: $104,361
• Equity at exit: $37,574

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56431

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,165 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $656/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $583

Break-even live

Break-even rent $427

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $611	-5% $597	+0% $583	+5% $568	+10% $554
Rent	-10% $491	-5% $537	+0% $583	+5% $629	+10% $675
Rate	-1.0pp $608	-0.5pp $595	base $583	+0.5pp $570	+1.0pp $557

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
315 1st Ave SW Apt 317 Aitkin, MN	2.0	1.0	802	$1,165	$1.45	45d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-15
   price $50,000 450-char remark
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $1 Active 450-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $656 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $656 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,980
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$656
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,118
• − Management: −$1,118
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $6,582
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,580
• After-tax cash flow: $5,412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aitkin Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2702760
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,614
• Composite: 45.59/100
• National rank: #2592
• State rank: #84 of 301 in MN

Livability — Aitkin

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #193
• US rank: #4127

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aitkin, MN
• Population (ZIP): 9,142

Population outlook (Aitkin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,340 people
• By 2030: 13,514 · -5.8%
• By 2040: 11,928 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 10,804 · -24.7%
• By 2075: 9,555 · -33.4%
• By 2100: 8,380 · -41.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Aitkin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 33.8% · R 64.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+25.9 2012: R+1.3 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.44%
• Current HPI: 294.08
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $50,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Listed $1 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $656 · +84.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.