67 Church Ln · Springs, NY 11937

$1,100,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,900 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 1950 0.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in the East Hampton hamlet of Springs with this architecturally distinctive as-is ranch set on a desirable . 30-acre corner lot. Spanning nearly 3,000 square feet, this three-bedroom, 1.5-bath residence features striking rotunda-style window architecture, offering mid-century character and exceptional natural light. The home includes central air conditioning and a full unfinished basement with approximately 10-foot ceilings, presenting outstanding potential for additional living space, recreation, or storage. With ample room for expansion and a pool (subject to permits), this property offers a rare chance to reimagine and customize a substantial home in one of East Hampto

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $1.10M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($103k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.10M).
• Recommended offer: $1.07M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 11.1% in Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#809 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Springs Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #239 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Springs School (math 55% / reading 60%, grade C+, #839 of 2,108 statewide, top 40%, 689 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $20,002/mo this rent would consume 185% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $33k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $308k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.07M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $755k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,067,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.29%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $2,311,300
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Rosemaries Ln	0.26mi	4/6.0 (+1)	2,729 (-6%)	23mo	$2,175,000	$797	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $471,773
• Equity at exit: $164,014

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.17×
• Total profit: $1,593,072
• Equity at exit: $95,108

Cash invested: $308,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,002 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,769
• Tax from tax record: −$1,030 /mo · $12,363/yr
• Insurance: −$458
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,201
• Net cashflow: $8,545

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,186

Max offer price $1,100,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9,167	-5% $8,856	+0% $8,545	+5% $8,233	+10% $7,922
Rent	-10% $6,965	-5% $7,755	+0% $8,545	+5% $9,335	+10% $10,125
Rate	-1.0pp $9,099	-0.5pp $8,825	base $8,545	+0.5pp $8,260	+1.0pp $7,970

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $275,000
• Closing costs: $33,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Wolf Way East Hampton, NY	4.0	2.5	3200	$30,000	$9.38	0d	1	0.73mi
20 Howard St East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.5	2000	$75,000	$37.50	22d	1	1.07mi
3 Birdie Ln East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.5	2000	$15,000	$7.50	0d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-04
   listed $1,100,000 Active
3. 2026-01-30
   historical $1,100,000
4. 2025-11-07
   soldstatus $755,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,363 · $1,030/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,477 · $1,290/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,113/yr (+$259/mo · 25.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $240,029
• − Mortgage interest: −$61,617
• − Property taxes: −$12,363
• − Insurance: −$5,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,202
• − Management: −$19,202
• − Depreciation: −$32,000
• Taxable income: $90,144
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$21,635
• After-tax cash flow: $80,903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springs Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $75,413
• Composite: 51.42/100
• National rank: #1728
• State rank: #239 of 590 in NY

Livability — Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #809
• US rank: #15666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springs, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+45.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Listed $1,100,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Coming Soon $1,100,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $755,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,363 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.