251 Powell Ave · Newburgh, NY 12550

$429,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,014 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1860 2,760 sqft lot Est $592k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own a duplex in the City of Newburgh, located directly across from Mount Saint Mary College and just minutes from the vibrant Newburgh Waterfront. Discover this charming, character-filled home featuring soaring ceilings, oversized windows, exquisite molding, and beautiful hardwood floors throughout, creating a warm and inviting ambiance. This duplex offers incredible flexibility with two units. The lower level features a 1-bedroom, 1-bath apartment with high ceilings—ideal for extended family or rental income. The upper unit is the larger space, offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Step outside to enjoy a serene backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located near restaurants, shops, Montefiore St. Luke’s Hospital, and commuter routes including the Beacon Metro-North train with direct access to Grand Central. You’re also a short drive to Stewart International Airport, Bear Mountain, West Point, and the many parks, trails, wineries, and attractions the Hudson Valley has to offer. This property truly has so much to offer—don’t miss this opportunity!

Key facts

• Two units
• Duplex
• Serene backyard

Tags

• DUPLEX
• SERENE BACKYARD
• TWO UNITS
• DIRECT ACCESS TO GRAND CENTRAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1×2bd/1.5ba + 1×3bd/1.5ba units multifamily listed at $429k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $76 ($909/yr) — positive. Per door: $38/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $426k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $403k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.4% in Newburgh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#878 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Newburgh City School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #500 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Newburgh Free Academy (math 76% / reading 85%, grade A, #506 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 3,433 students, 56% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+40 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Newburgh City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 384 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,255/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 2412% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($403k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $258k; list at $429k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $403,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.76%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $592,065
• List price: $429,000
• Delta: -27.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
157 Johnston St	0.28mi	5/3.0	2,240 (+11%)	1mo	$285,000	$127	67
121 Gidney Ave	0.11mi	6/2.0 (+1)	1,992 (-1%)	22mo	$456,000	$229	66
200 North St	0.55mi	6/3.0 (+1)	1,910 (-5%)	1mo	$450,000	$236	60
23 City Ter Unit A	0.60mi	5/2.0	1,952 (-3%)	4mo	$280,000	$143	60
231 3rd St	0.41mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,034 (+1%)	20mo	$332,000	$163	54
219A First St	0.52mi	5/2.0	1,938 (-4%)	18mo	$270,000	$139	51
22 City Ter	0.60mi	6/4.0 (+1)	1,891 (-6%)	3mo	$80,000	$42	50
217 First St	0.52mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,938 (-4%)	23mo	$270,000	$139	41
113 First St	0.61mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-11%)	7mo	$295,000	$164	39
74 Robinson Ave	0.53mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,816 (-10%)	23mo	$320,000	$176	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-74,344
• Equity at exit: $63,965

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-96,252
• Equity at exit: $37,092

Cash invested: $120,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12550

• Home prices YoY: -33.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 384
• Price-to-rent: 17.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,255 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax from tax record: −$857 /mo · $10,287/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$894
• Net cashflow: $76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,159

Max offer price $429,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $319	-5% $197	+0% $76	+5% $-46	+10% $-167
Rent	-10% $-260	-5% $-92	+0% $76	+5% $244	+10% $412
Rate	-1.0pp $292	-0.5pp $185	base $76	+0.5pp $-35	+1.0pp $-149

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	2	1.5	$2,001
1× unit	3	1.5	$2,254
Total (2 units)			$4,255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,250
• Closing costs: $12,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
160 N Miller St #1 Newburgh, NY	4.0	1.0	1600	$2,500	$1.56	45d	1	0.25mi
4 Grand St Unit 3 Newburgh, NY	4.0	2.0	1560	$3,925	$2.52	25d	1	0.84mi
87 Ellis Ave Newburgh, NY	5.0	2.5	2172	$2,500	$1.15	45d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $429,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $429,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $429,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $429,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $429,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $429,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $429,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $429,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $429,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $429,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $429,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $429,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $429,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $429,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $449,000 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $449,000 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    price $449,000 1140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1140 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a duplex in the City of Newburgh, located directly across from Mount Saint Mary College and just minutes from the vibrant Newburgh Waterfront. Discover this charming, character-filled home featuring soaring ceilings, oversized windows, exquisite molding, and beautiful hardwood floors throughout, creating a warm and inviting ambiance. This duplex offers incredible flexibility with two units. The lower level features a 1-bedroom, 1-bath apartment with high ceilings—ideal for extended family or rental income. The upper unit is the larger space, offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Step outside to enjoy a serene backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located near restaurants, shops, Montefiore St. Luke’s Hospital, and commuter routes including the Beacon Metro-North train with direct access to Grand Central. You’re also a short drive to Stewart International Airport, Bear Mountain, West Point, and the many parks, trails, wineries, and attractions the Hudson Valley has to offer. This property truly has so much to offer—don’t miss this opportunity!

18. 2026-04-13
    listed $459,000 Active 1140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1140 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a duplex in the City of Newburgh, located directly across from Mount Saint Mary College and just minutes from the vibrant Newburgh Waterfront. Discover this charming, character-filled home featuring soaring ceilings, oversized windows, exquisite molding, and beautiful hardwood floors throughout, creating a warm and inviting ambiance. This duplex offers incredible flexibility with two units. The lower level features a 1-bedroom, 1-bath apartment with high ceilings—ideal for extended family or rental income. The upper unit is the larger space, offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Step outside to enjoy a serene backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located near restaurants, shops, Montefiore St. Luke’s Hospital, and commuter routes including the Beacon Metro-North train with direct access to Grand Central. You’re also a short drive to Stewart International Airport, Bear Mountain, West Point, and the many parks, trails, wineries, and attractions the Hudson Valley has to offer. This property truly has so much to offer—don’t miss this opportunity!

19. 2025-10-20
    listed $459,000 Active
20. 2025-10-06
    historical
21. 2025-05-18
    historical $1,300
22. 2025-04-29
    historical $1,300
23. 2025-04-22
    listed $1,300
24. 2025-04-22
    listed $1,300
25. 2025-04-14
    historical $1,300
26. 2025-04-14
    historical $1,300
27. 2025-04-11
    price $449,000
28. 2025-04-01
    listed $1,300
29. 2025-04-01
    listed $2,200
30. 2025-03-04
    price $469,000
31. 2025-02-01
    price $489,000
32. 2024-12-10
    listed $499,000 Active
33. 2024-12-04
    historical
34. 2024-12-03
    listed $499,000 Active
35. 2024-10-26
    historical
36. 2024-08-05
    price $499,000
37. 2024-06-26
    listed $510,000 Active
38. 2021-10-19
    historical
39. 2021-09-30
    status Active
40. 2021-09-10
    historical
41. 2021-06-20
    price $299,999
42. 2021-06-10
    listed $399,000 Active
43. 2021-01-11
    historical
44. 2020-10-27
    listed $359,000 Active
45. 2013-12-18
    price $252,000
46. 2005-05-26
    soldstatus $257,500
47. 2005-05-19
    soldstatus $257,500
48. 2005-02-28
    historical
49. 2004-08-20
    listed $257,500
50. 2003-06-04
    soldstatus $137,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,287 · $857/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,287 · $857/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,031
• − Property taxes: −$10,287
• − Insurance: −$2,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,085
• − Management: −$4,085
• − Depreciation: −$12,480
• Taxable loss: −$6,052
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,453
• After-tax cash flow: $2,361/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newburgh City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620700
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,387
• Composite: 35.46/100
• National rank: #4927
• State rank: #500 of 590 in NY

Livability — Newburgh

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #878
• US rank: #17021

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newburgh, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 55,152
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,152
• Household income: $85,697
• Rent vs Own: 44.2% rent · 55.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2412.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% White 36% Black 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 30% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.93%
• Current HPI: 304.1046
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.63%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1696.0% since first listed

41 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $449,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listed $459,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-20 Listed $459,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-18 Rental Removed $1,300 ONEKEY
• 2025-04-29 Rental Removed $1,300 ONEKEY
• 2025-04-22 Listed for Rent $1,300 ONEKEY
• 2025-04-22 Listed for Rent $1,300 ONEKEY
• 2025-04-14 Rental Removed $1,300 ONEKEY
• 2025-04-14 Rental Removed $1,300 ONEKEY
• 2025-04-11 Price Changed $449,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-01 Listed for Rent $1,300 ONEKEY
• 2025-04-01 Listed for Rent $2,200 ONEKEY
• 2025-03-04 Price Changed $469,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-01 Price Changed $489,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-10 Listed $499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-04 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-03 Listed $499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-26 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-05 Price Changed $499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-26 Listed $510,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-19 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-30 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-10 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-20 Price Changed $299,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-10 Listed $399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-27 Listed $359,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-18 Price Changed $252,000 HGMLS
• 2005-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $257,500 Public Records
• 2005-05-19 Sold (MLS) $257,500 HGMLS
• 2005-02-28 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2004-08-20 Listed $257,500 HGMLS
• 2003-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $137,000 Public Records
• 2003-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $111,300 Public Records
• 2002-12-19 Sold (MLS) $105,000 HGMLS
• 2002-12-05 Price Changed $130,000 HGMLS
• 2002-12-05 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2002-09-16 Listed $105,000 HGMLS
• 1998-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 1985-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,287 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.