233 E Commerce St · Dunkirk, IN 47336

$109,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,423 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1916 6,534 sqft lot $77/sqft · 8% above area Est $101k · 8% over ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• ARV discount +3.7/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this recently remodeled 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home in the heart of Dunkirk. Located close to restaurants, parks and schools. This home features central air, new cabinets and new flooring.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Built 1916
• Listed 38 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#404 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Jay School Corporation (rural): math 38% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #175 of 301 in IN (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Jay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($760 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Jay County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1916 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,603 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1916 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.82%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $101,346
• List price: $109,900
• Delta: 8.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 E Center St	0.13mi	2/1.0	1,376 (-3%)	6mo	$103,000	$75	83
135 S Broad St	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,547 (+9%)	2mo	$27,000	$17	74
161 Orange Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,388 (-2%)	9mo	$75,000	$54	69
334 Moore Ave	0.30mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,428 (+0%)	11mo	$168,000	$118	69
446 E Center St	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,510 (+6%)	2mo	$140,000	$93	69
201 S Meridian St	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,312 (-8%)	5mo	$125,000	$95	67
128 W North St	0.26mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,618 (+14%)	6mo	$22,500	$14	56
922 S Main St	0.48mi	2/1.0	1,268 (-11%)	10mo	$55,500	$44	51
202 Shadyside St	0.59mi	2/1.0	1,224 (-14%)	1mo	$142,500	$116	49
343 E Ohio St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,267 (-11%)	13mo	$100,000	$79	45
631 N Hickory St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,274 (-10%)	9mo	$142,000	$111	44
357 Mount Auburn St	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,618 (+14%)	10mo	$140,000	$87	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $26,490
• Equity at exit: $53,423

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $76,447
• Equity at exit: $85,594

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47336

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,086 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,042/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $897

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $211	-5% $180	+0% $149	+5% $118	+10% $87
Rent	-10% $63	-5% $106	+0% $149	+5% $192	+10% $235
Rate	-1.0pp $204	-0.5pp $177	base $149	+0.5pp $121	+1.0pp $92

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $109,900 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-05-07
   status Active 196-char remark

   Show marketing remark (196 chars)

   Come see this recently remodeled 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home in the heart of Dunkirk. Located close to restaurants, parks and schools. This home features central air, new cabinets and new flooring.

10. 2026-04-17
    status Pending 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Come see this recently remodeled 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home in the heart of Dunkirk. Located close to restaurants, parks and schools. This home features central air, new cabinets and new flooring.

11. 2026-03-31
    listed $109,900 Active 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Come see this recently remodeled 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home in the heart of Dunkirk. Located close to restaurants, parks and schools. This home features central air, new cabinets and new flooring.

12. 2025-10-08
    price $119,900
13. 2025-10-08
    price $119,900
14. 2025-08-21
    listed $129,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,042 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,042 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,034
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,042
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,043
• − Management: −$1,043
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $4
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1
• After-tax cash flow: $1,789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jay School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1804980
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $40,841
• Composite: 31.56/100
• National rank: #5954
• State rank: #175 of 301 in IN

Livability — Dunkirk

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #404
• US rank: #14764

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunkirk, IN
• Population (ZIP): 2,793

Population outlook (Jay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,586 people
• By 2030: 20,155 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 19,274 · -6.4%
• By 2050: 18,203 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 15,062 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 10,857 · -47.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.2) · D 21.6% · R 76.7% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.3pp toward R · 2008: -7.8pp · 2024: -55.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.2 2020: R+52.4 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+20.0 2008: R+7.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.64%
• Current HPI: 238.768
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-15.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — IRMLS
• 2026-04-17 Pending — IRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $109,900 IRMLS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $119,900 RRELMS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $119,900 IRMLS
• 2025-08-21 Listed $129,900 IRMLS

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,042 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.