97209 Emerald Ln · Yulee, FL 32097

$259,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2001 Est $353k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This modular home is located in a subdivision off Chester Road in Yulee. It features a split floor plan, large family room with fire place, open kitchen/dining with island in center that has a sink and counter tops. Room for bar stools in kitchen/dining area. Nice size living room and utility room. Carpet could use replacement due to normal wear and tear.

Key facts

• Fully equipped shed
• Spacious lot
• Powered workshop

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• POWERED WORKSHOP
• FULLY EQUIPPED SHED
• OVERSIZED LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Metal roof; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Planned Unit Development (PUD)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stove
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Aluminum-framed windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $289 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.2% in Yulee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $259k implies a 270% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,694 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.78%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $353,160
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
87083 Chesapeake Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,718 (+6%)	2mo	$362,500	$211	70
96618 Chester Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-12%)	18mo	$315,000	$221	54
97201 Pirates Way	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,740 (+7%)	2mo	$375,000	$216	53
97089 Pirates Way	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-10%)	13mo	$290,000	$199	49
87047 Farnsworth Ln	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (-6%)	22mo	$340,000	$224	48
87159 Chesapeake Ave	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,515 (-6%)	24mo	$330,000	$218	48
87057 Chesapeake Ave Ave	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (-6%)	22mo	$330,000	$217	47
96782 Chester Rd	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,800 (+11%)	11mo	$335,000	$186	42
96710 Blackrock Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-10%)	22mo	$425,000	$292	42
97082 Bluff View Cir	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,840 (+14%)	12mo	$460,000	$250	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $159,051
• Equity at exit: $233,328

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.25×
• Total profit: $453,141
• Equity at exit: $503,180

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32097

• Home prices YoY: 19.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,337 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,097/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,972

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $435	-5% $362	+0% $289	+5% $215	+10% $142
Rent	-10% $104	-5% $196	+0% $289	+5% $381	+10% $473
Rate	-1.0pp $419	-0.5pp $354	base $289	+0.5pp $222	+1.0pp $153

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $259,000 Active
3. 2015-03-24
   soldstatus $70,000 357-char remark

   Show marketing remark (357 chars)

   This modular home is located in a subdivision off Chester Road in Yulee. It features a split floor plan, large family room with fire place, open kitchen/dining with island in center that has a sink and counter tops. Room for bar stools in kitchen/dining area. Nice size living room and utility room. Carpet could use replacement due to normal wear and tear.

4. 2015-03-24
   soldstatus $70,000 357-char remark

   Show marketing remark (357 chars)

   This modular home is located in a subdivision off Chester Road in Yulee. It features a split floor plan, large family room with fire place, open kitchen/dining with island in center that has a sink and counter tops. Room for bar stools in kitchen/dining area. Nice size living room and utility room. Carpet could use replacement due to normal wear and tear.

5. 2014-05-18
   listed $70,000 357-char remark

   Show marketing remark (357 chars)

   This modular home is located in a subdivision off Chester Road in Yulee. It features a split floor plan, large family room with fire place, open kitchen/dining with island in center that has a sink and counter tops. Room for bar stools in kitchen/dining area. Nice size living room and utility room. Carpet could use replacement due to normal wear and tear.

6. 2014-05-16
   listed $70,000 357-char remark

   Show marketing remark (357 chars)

   This modular home is located in a subdivision off Chester Road in Yulee. It features a split floor plan, large family room with fire place, open kitchen/dining with island in center that has a sink and counter tops. Room for bar stools in kitchen/dining area. Nice size living room and utility room. Carpet could use replacement due to normal wear and tear.

7. 2000-01-20
   soldstatus $135,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,097 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,150 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,053/yr (+$88/mo · 95.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$1,097
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,243
• − Management: −$2,243
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$878
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$211
• After-tax cash flow: $3,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Yulee

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #11615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Yulee, FL
• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 26,700
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,700
• Household income: $93,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.35%
• Current HPI: 301.9299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+91.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — AINCAR
• 2026-05-08 Listed $259,000 AINCAR
• 2015-03-24 Sold (MLS) $70,000 realMLS
• 2015-03-24 Sold (MLS) $70,000 AINCAR
• 2014-05-18 Listed $70,000 realMLS
• 2014-05-16 Listed $70,000 AINCAR
• 2000-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,097 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.