4102 Burkey Rd · Austintown, OH 44515

$129,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,592 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 233 Days on market

Built 1956 0.47 ac lot $82/sqft · 14% below area Est $151k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nearly half an acre in Austintown Local Schools! Mature trees surround this Cape Cod, and offers a sun-filled living room with peaceful views. Cozy family room with wood-burning fireplace and eat-in kitchen, create a warm, inviting feel. Mudroom adds everyday convenience, and the fenced backyard is perfect for relaxing, gardening, or play. With a new water heater, newer furnace, upgraded electrical, and a larger upgraded septic system already in place, this home is full of character, comfort, and potential-ready for your vision.

Key facts

• Handy mudroom
• Eat-in kitchen
• Half an acre

Tags

• HALF AN ACRE
• MATURE TREES
• SUN-FILLED LIVING ROOM
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• HANDY MUDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.8% in Austintown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#322 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Austintown Local Schools (suburban): math 56% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #290 of 656 in OH (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 147 units permitted in Mahoning County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mahoning County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $130k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.71%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,544
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -13.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4102 Burkey Rd	0.00mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,592 (0%)	1mo	$120,000	$75	94
4103 Woodmere Dr	0.04mi	3/1.5	1,740 (+9%)	2mo	$231,000	$133	79
4234 Selkirk Ave	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,520 (-4%)	1mo	$165,000	$109	70
358 S Edgehill Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,483 (-7%)	4mo	$160,000	$108	61
3852 Edinburgh	0.57mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,656 (+4%)	3mo	$220,000	$133	57
192 S Navarre Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-5%)	5mo	$167,750	$111	53
4235 Patricia Ave	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,472 (-8%)	4mo	$213,500	$145	51
4242 Kerrybrook Dr	0.67mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,671 (+5%)	3mo	$161,000	$96	51
1726 Lancaster Dr	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,445 (-9%)	4mo	$210,000	$145	50
132 S Main St	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,452 (-9%)	0mo	$110,000	$76	50
3990 Claridge Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,456 (-8%)	3mo	$225,000	$155	47
136 Rosemont Ave	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,438 (-10%)	2mo	$126,000	$88	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-4,214
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $18,080
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44515

• Home prices YoY: -26.4%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,478 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,016/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,144

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4494 Burkey Rd Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.5	1596	$1,700	$1.07	43d	1	0.69mi
2433 Bainbridge Ave Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.0	1640	$1,500	$0.91	20d	1	0.91mi
3968 Staatz Dr Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.5	1112	$1,650	$1.48	43d	1	0.93mi
2230 S Raccoon Rd Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.0–1.5	1141	$1,135	$0.99	13d	1	0.94mi
4661 New Hampshire Ct Austintown, OH	3.0	1.0–1.5	795	$1,325	$1.67	13d	1	1.07mi
2529 Bainbridge Ave Youngstown, OH	3.0	2.0	1692	$1,500	$0.89	43d	1	1.08mi
4815 Westchester Dr Unit 4896-05 Austintown, OH	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,025	$0.85	13d	1	1.23mi
131 N Edgehill Ave Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,350	$1.12	20d	1	1.26mi
155 N Roanoke Ave Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.5	1632	$1,500	$0.92	20d	1	1.33mi
2239 Woodland Trce Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,850	$1.71	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   Nearly half an acre in Austintown Local Schools! Mature trees surround this Cape Cod, and offers a sun-filled living room with peaceful views. Cozy family room with wood-burning fireplace and eat-in kitchen, create a warm, inviting feel. Mudroom adds everyday convenience, and the fenced backyard is perfect for relaxing, gardening, or play. With a new water heater, newer furnace, upgraded electrical, and a larger upgraded septic system already in place, this home is full of character, comfort, and potential-ready for your vision.

2. 2026-04-27
   price $129,900 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   Nearly half an acre in Austintown Local Schools! Mature trees surround this Cape Cod, and offers a sun-filled living room with peaceful views. Cozy family room with wood-burning fireplace and eat-in kitchen, create a warm, inviting feel. Mudroom adds everyday convenience, and the fenced backyard is perfect for relaxing, gardening, or play. With a new water heater, newer furnace, upgraded electrical, and a larger upgraded septic system already in place, this home is full of character, comfort, and potential-ready for your vision.

3. 2026-04-27
   status Active 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   Nearly half an acre in Austintown Local Schools! Mature trees surround this Cape Cod, and offers a sun-filled living room with peaceful views. Cozy family room with wood-burning fireplace and eat-in kitchen, create a warm, inviting feel. Mudroom adds everyday convenience, and the fenced backyard is perfect for relaxing, gardening, or play. With a new water heater, newer furnace, upgraded electrical, and a larger upgraded septic system already in place, this home is full of character, comfort, and potential-ready for your vision.

4. 2026-04-16
   historical 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   Nearly half an acre in Austintown Local Schools! Mature trees surround this Cape Cod, and offers a sun-filled living room with peaceful views. Cozy family room with wood-burning fireplace and eat-in kitchen, create a warm, inviting feel. Mudroom adds everyday convenience, and the fenced backyard is perfect for relaxing, gardening, or play. With a new water heater, newer furnace, upgraded electrical, and a larger upgraded septic system already in place, this home is full of character, comfort, and potential-ready for your vision.

5. 2025-10-17
   price $149,900 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   Nearly half an acre in Austintown Local Schools! Mature trees surround this Cape Cod, and offers a sun-filled living room with peaceful views. Cozy family room with wood-burning fireplace and eat-in kitchen, create a warm, inviting feel. Mudroom adds everyday convenience, and the fenced backyard is perfect for relaxing, gardening, or play. With a new water heater, newer furnace, upgraded electrical, and a larger upgraded septic system already in place, this home is full of character, comfort, and potential-ready for your vision.

6. 2025-09-26
   price $159,900 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   Nearly half an acre in Austintown Local Schools! Mature trees surround this Cape Cod, and offers a sun-filled living room with peaceful views. Cozy family room with wood-burning fireplace and eat-in kitchen, create a warm, inviting feel. Mudroom adds everyday convenience, and the fenced backyard is perfect for relaxing, gardening, or play. With a new water heater, newer furnace, upgraded electrical, and a larger upgraded septic system already in place, this home is full of character, comfort, and potential-ready for your vision.

7. 2025-09-03
   listed $169,900 Active 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   Nearly half an acre in Austintown Local Schools! Mature trees surround this Cape Cod, and offers a sun-filled living room with peaceful views. Cozy family room with wood-burning fireplace and eat-in kitchen, create a warm, inviting feel. Mudroom adds everyday convenience, and the fenced backyard is perfect for relaxing, gardening, or play. With a new water heater, newer furnace, upgraded electrical, and a larger upgraded septic system already in place, this home is full of character, comfort, and potential-ready for your vision.

8. 2005-10-24
   soldstatus $78,000
9. 2005-10-21
   soldstatus $78,000 66-char remark

   Show marketing remark (66 chars)

   Nice cape cod - fenced in backyard - newer furnace, air, carpeting

10. 2005-10-15
    historical 66-char remark

    Show marketing remark (66 chars)

    Nice cape cod - fenced in backyard - newer furnace, air, carpeting

11. 2005-04-15
    listed $79,900 66-char remark

    Show marketing remark (66 chars)

    Nice cape cod - fenced in backyard - newer furnace, air, carpeting

12. 2000-02-25
    soldstatus $56,500
13. 1996-08-31
    historical
14. 1996-05-20
    listed $64,000
15. 1990-12-06
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,016 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,021 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$5/yr ($0/mo · 0.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$2,016
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,418
• − Management: −$1,418
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $1,173
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$281
• After-tax cash flow: $2,886/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Austintown Local Schools
• NCES district ID: 3904829
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $45,129
• Composite: 50.99/100
• National rank: #1778
• State rank: #290 of 656 in OH

Livability — Austintown

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #322
• US rank: #5290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Austintown, OH
• County: Mahoning · 224,175 people
• City population: 27,740
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren, OH
• Population (ZIP): 27,740
• Household income: $52,831
• Rent vs Own: 34.7% rent · 65.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 10.9

Population outlook (Mahoning County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,932 people
• By 2030: 218,387 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 205,367 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 193,606 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 173,694 · -22.4%
• By 2100: 151,147 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mahoning

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.9% · R 54.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.1pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: D+3.0 2012: D+27.7 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.64%
• Current HPI: 228.0895
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+188.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $129,900 MLSNOW
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $149,900 MLSNOW
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $159,900 MLSNOW
• 2025-09-03 Listed $169,900 MLSNOW
• 2005-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-21 Sold (MLS) $78,000 MLSNOW
• 2005-10-15 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2005-04-15 Listed $79,900 MLSNOW
• 2000-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $56,500 Public Records
• 1996-08-31 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 1996-05-20 Listed $64,000 MLSNOW
• 1990-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,016 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.