151 Willow Dr · Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$365,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2005 0.57 ac lot Est $336k · 9% over $250/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ranch home that offers open floor plan 3 bedrooms 2 full bathrooms and large 2 car garage with plenty of attic storage that runs the entire length of the home. Close to all amenities and front gate for easy access in and out of the gated community.

Key facts

• Oversized corner lot
• Renovated kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OVERSIZED CORNER LOT
• CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY
• GORGEOUS STONE FIREPLACE
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• RICH CHERRY CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions available for property access; Subdivision: Hemlock Farms
• Financial info: Association fee billed annually with an additional one-time fee noted
• HOA & community: Part of a homeowners association; Annual association fee (annual) with a derived monthly equivalent; Association covers maintenance of grounds, trash removal, security and snow removal; Community amenities include pool(s), gated entry, clubhouse, tennis courts, playground, park, lake access, golf, fitness center, trails, basketball court, picnic area, jogging paths and boating/fishing recreation

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Garage plus driveway; Circular gravel driveway; Private off-street parking
• Security: Gated community; 24-hour security; Smoke detectors; Fire alarm
• Utilities: Cable available and connected; Water connected; Sewer connected (septic tank); Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Residential zoning; Block, vinyl siding and frame construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Block foundation
• Construction: Built with block, vinyl siding and frame; Asphalt shingle roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Lighting; Additional storage / shed; Rain gutters; Private yard; Deck; Rear porch; Fenced backyard (partial wood); Community pool; Views and proximity to community lake; Wooded, level corner lot with many trees; Private maintained road with paved/asphalt surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Stainless steel appliances; Refrigerator; Gas oven; Kitchen island; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Laundry located on main level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Fireplace insert in living room; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Built-in bookcases; Recessed lighting; Walk-in closets; Storage space; Kitchen island; Granite counters; Ceiling fans; Bay window
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Water heater; Laundry on main level; Crawl space with storage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $353k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $353k (3.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $102k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $238k; list at $365k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $353,110 (3.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.60%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $336,192
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
809 Boulder Ct	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-6%)	3mo	$620,000	$404	77
109 Bluestone Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-8%)	3mo	$255,000	$170	73
105 Longridge Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,692 (+4%)	3mo	$340,000	$201	72
101 Tupelo Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-6%)	11mo	$333,000	$217	62
119 Ridgeway Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,662 (+2%)	1mo	$549,000	$330	60
802 Rimrock Ct Unit 802 Rimrock Lane, Hawley, PA 18428	0.50mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,728 (+6%)	1mo	$345,000	$200	59
101 Surrey Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,566 (-4%)	10mo	$243,000	$155	57
120 Ridgeway Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,641 (+1%)	10mo	$280,000	$171	57
103 Blue Shelf Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-13%)	12mo	$311,000	$218	54
101 Ridgeway Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-13%)	6mo	$292,500	$206	49
115 Cliff Dr	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (+6%)	14mo	$475,000	$275	42
106 Basswood Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+10%)	10mo	$270,000	$150	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $207,627
• Equity at exit: $328,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.92×
• Total profit: $604,847
• Equity at exit: $709,115

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,531 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$337 /mo · $4,041/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$742
• Net cashflow: $137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,358

Max offer price $365,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
811 Hickory Ct Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	1d	1	0.43mi
313 Forest Dr Blooming Grove, PA	3.0	2.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	1d	1	0.67mi
131 Surrey Dr Hawley, PA	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,650	$1.36	43d	1	0.75mi
106 Corral Ln Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2150	$4,000	$1.86	3d	1	0.93mi
101 Pommel Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	1691	$4,400	$2.60	1d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $365,000 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $365,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $365,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $365,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $365,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $365,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,041 · $337/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,904 · $409/mo
• Expected delta: +$863/yr (+$72/mo · 21.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,373
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$4,041
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,390
• − Management: −$3,390
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$4,336
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,041
• After-tax cash flow: $2,681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemlock Farms, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1939.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $365,000 PWMLS
• 2022-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $238,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-05 Sold (MLS) $238,000 PMAR
• 2022-05-12 Listed $239,500 PMAR
• 2004-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $17,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,041 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.