4263 State Route 12 · Lyons Falls, NY 13368

$99,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,669 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1920 4.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 4 bedrooms home has many updates. First floor bedroom and 3 up give optimal usage of home large living room and dining room. First floor laundry and a large enclosed porch leads to 4.5 acres. Large Barn needs some improvements but the 1 stall garage is great for storage needs.

Key facts

• Enclosed side porch
• Formal dining room
• Laundry area

Tags

• ENCLOSED SIDE PORCH
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• FULL BATH
• KITCHEN
• LIVING ROOM
• LAUNDRY AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 1.8% in Lyons Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,075 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• South Lewis Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #450 of 590 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $892 of equity ($691 loan paydown + $201 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Lewis County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $99,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.58%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $13,790
• Equity at exit: $30,017

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $46,638
• Equity at exit: $36,897

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13368

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,255 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,151/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $943

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-10
   listed $99,900 Active
3. 2012-09-28
   soldstatus $70,000 286-char remark

   Show marketing remark (286 chars)

   Charming 4 bedrooms home has many updates. First floor bedroom and 3 up give optimal usage of home large living room and dining room. First floor laundry and a large enclosed porch leads to 4.5 acres. Large Barn needs some improvements but the 1 stall garage is great for storage needs.

4. 2012-06-12
   listed $67,500 286-char remark

   Show marketing remark (286 chars)

   Charming 4 bedrooms home has many updates. First floor bedroom and 3 up give optimal usage of home large living room and dining room. First floor laundry and a large enclosed porch leads to 4.5 acres. Large Barn needs some improvements but the 1 stall garage is great for storage needs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,151 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,151 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$2,151
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,205
• − Management: −$1,205
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $1,498
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$359
• After-tax cash flow: $2,601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Lewis Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627360
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,641
• Composite: 39.35/100
• National rank: #3980
• State rank: #450 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lyons Falls

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1075
• US rank: #21579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,025

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,126 people
• By 2030: 25,354 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 23,359 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 20,927 · -19.9%
• By 2075: 15,533 · -40.5%
• By 2100: 10,215 · -60.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.4) · D 27.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -44.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.4 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+39.6 2012: R+8.7 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.20%
• Current HPI: 394.7802
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+48.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $99,900 CNYIS
• 2012-09-28 Sold (MLS) $70,000 CNYIS
• 2012-06-12 Listed $67,500 CNYIS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,151 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.