3105 N 16th St · Tampa, FL 33605

$245,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1925 4,900 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located in the vibrant Ybor City area. Featuring an inviting layout, this residence offers a comfortable living space with a well-appointed kitchen, spacious bedrooms, and updated baths. Enjoy the convenience of low-maintenance living with new LVP flooring throughout and fresh interior paint. This home is move-in ready—perfect for first-time buyers looking to start building equity or investors seeking a high-demand rental opportunity in one of Tampa’s most dynamic neighborhoods. Just minutes from historic Ybor City, downtown Tampa, dining, entertainment, and major highways. Don’t mi

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• New lvp flooring
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• NEW LVP FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• MOVE-IN READY
• HIGH-DEMAND RENTAL OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $19 ($231/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 187 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,168/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1374% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $116k; list at $245k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,767 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.34%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $129,541
• Equity at exit: $220,715

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.41×
• Total profit: $371,117
• Equity at exit: $475,981

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33605

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,168 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$306 /mo · $3,675/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,143

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $158	-5% $89	+0% $19	+5% $-50	+10% $-119
Rent	-10% $-152	-5% $-66	+0% $19	+5% $105	+10% $191
Rate	-1.0pp $143	-0.5pp $82	base $19	+0.5pp $-44	+1.0pp $-109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3021 Sanchez St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,195	$1.69	25d	1	0.07mi
3210 N 16th St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1380	$1,875	$1.36	3d	1	0.08mi
3210 N 16th St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1380	$1,995	$1.45	22d	1	0.08mi
3210 N 16th St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1380	$1,875	$1.36	0d	1	0.08mi
1520 E 21st Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1671	$2,350	$1.41	17d	1	0.11mi
1807 E 20th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1131	$2,900	$2.56	25d	1	0.22mi
2907 N 15th St Unit D Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	888	$1,850	$2.08	5d	1	0.22mi
2810 N 16th St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1066	$2,550	$2.39	13d	1	0.25mi
1302 E 21st Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,408	$1.76	0d	8	0.29mi
1212 E 25th Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1035	$1,490	$1.44	20d	1	0.33mi
3411 N 13th St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	978	$1,895	$1.94	25d	1	0.35mi
2108 E 22nd Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1308	$2,100	$1.61	5d	1	0.35mi
2108 E 22nd Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1308	$2,100	$1.61	4d	1	0.35mi
1716 E Columbus Dr Unit A Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	924	$1,800	$1.95	25d	1	0.35mi
2708 N 19th St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,200	$1.31	17d	1	0.36mi
1808 E Columbus Dr #5 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1620	$1,900	$1.17	3d	1	0.37mi
2002 E 18th Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1084	$2,400	$2.21	5d	1	0.40mi
3601 N 13th St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,550	$1.42	25d	1	0.43mi
2006 E Columbus Dr Unit A Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	896	$1,495	$1.67	2d	1	0.44mi
1515 E 31st Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	914	$1,500	$1.64	5d	1	0.45mi
1221 E Columbus Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,499	$1.50	25d	1	0.46mi
2205 Chipco St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	25d	1	0.47mi
1003 E 22nd Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1062	$1,639	$1.54	5d	1	0.48mi
2104 E Columbus Dr Unit 301 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1083	$2,050	$1.89	25d	1	0.49mi
2104 E Columbus Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,995	$1.62	25d	1	0.49mi
2214 E 18th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$2,295	$1.93	5d	1	0.50mi
1006 E 26th Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,630	$1.63	5d	1	0.51mi
1003 E 19th Ave Unit 1053143P Tampa, FL	4.0	3.0	1614	$4,674	$2.90	4d	1	0.53mi
916 E 25th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,600	$1.70	11d	1	0.53mi
1305 E Louise Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1384	$2,700	$1.95	25d	1	0.55mi
3511 Cone Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1256	$2,200	$1.75	5d	1	0.57mi
912 E Saint Clair St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	25d	1	0.57mi
1003 E Columbus Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1160	$1,795	$1.55	2d	1	0.60mi
2703 N 24th St Unit 1 Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1164	$2,295	$1.97	0d	1	0.60mi
2703 N 24th St Unit 1 Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1164	$2,295	$1.97	14d	1	0.60mi
1504 E 33rd Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1108	$2,900	$2.62	25d	1	0.61mi
2308 E 15th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,895	$2.02	15d	1	0.63mi
3519 N 10th St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	18d	1	0.63mi
2825 N Taliaferro Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1484	$3,500	$2.36	25d	1	0.72mi
933 E 11th Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	904	$1,590	$1.76	25d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   price $245,000
3. 2026-03-16
   price $260,000
4. 2026-02-26
   listed $265,000 Active
5. 2026-01-13
   historical
6. 2025-07-25
   price $287,000
7. 2025-07-02
   listed $294,000 Active
8. 2020-03-31
   historical
9. 2020-02-27
   price $170,000
10. 2020-01-28
    listed $175,000 Active
11. 2019-07-24
    soldstatus $116,000
12. 2019-07-17
    soldstatus $116,000 Sold
13. 2019-05-24
    status Pending
14. 2019-05-20
    listed $105,000 Active
15. 1977-11-01
    soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,675 · $306/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,675 · $306/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,012
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,675
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,081
• − Management: −$2,081
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$3,901
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$936
• After-tax cash flow: $1,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tampa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2135

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tampa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 523,346
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,030
• Household income: $36,975
• Rent vs Own: 59.8% rent · 40.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1374.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 18% White 17% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.43%
• Current HPI: 494.1871
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.58%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1650.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $287,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-02 Listed $294,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-27 Price Changed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-28 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $116,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-17 Sold (MLS) $116,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-20 Listed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1977-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+42.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,675 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.