38 Pats Ln · Cascade, ID 83611

$299,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Other public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1968 8,712 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

EXPANSIVE VIEWS OF LAKE CASCADE! This unique offering features a small home that provides the perfect opportunity to renovate or completely rebuild to create your dream retreat. Bordering ranch land and National Forest, the setting offers privacy, open space, and an unmatched sense of seclusion while showcasing breathtaking lake views not seen anywhere else on Lake Cascade. This is an uncommon find that must be seen in person to fully appreciate the setting and possibilities. Even more, the neighboring 1+ acre property is also available offering the opportunity to own all 6 of the only developed lots in this exclusive area and build up to 3 more homes! A truly once in a lifetime chance to secure a private enclave or family compound to be cherished for generations to come. Don't miss out on this exceptional property!

Key facts

• Expansive views
• Open space
• Borders ranch land

Tags

• EXPANSIVE VIEWS
• BREATHTAKING LAKE VIEWS
• BORDERS RANCH LAND
• BORDERS NATIONAL FOREST
• OFFERS PRIVACY
• OPEN SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions available to property via local roads (detailed driving directions noted in listing)
• HOA & community: Located in the Allen Sub Of Lo subdivision (Cascade area)

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank for sewer
• Home design: Single Family Residence; Built in 1968
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Standard lot (approx. 6,000–9,999 SF)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (master bedroom located on the upper level)
• Bathrooms: 1 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Single-level living areas with a master bedroom on the upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.6% in Cascade — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#116 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cascade District (rural): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #94 of 133 in ID (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cascade Elementary School (math 54% / reading 44%, grade D, #148 of 357 statewide, top 47%, 119 students, 33% FRL); Cascade Jr/Sr High School (math 54% / reading 74%, grade B-, #10 of 169 statewide, top 7%, 87 students, 15% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 57% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cascade District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 406 active listings in the ZIP; 250 units permitted in Valley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Valley County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,523 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.53%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-28,493
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $473
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83611

• Home prices YoY: -27.9%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,625 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $788/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,226

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $299,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-04-10
    listed $299,000 Active 827-char remark

    Show marketing remark (827 chars)

    EXPANSIVE VIEWS OF LAKE CASCADE! This unique offering features a small home that provides the perfect opportunity to renovate or completely rebuild to create your dream retreat. Bordering ranch land and National Forest, the setting offers privacy, open space, and an unmatched sense of seclusion while showcasing breathtaking lake views not seen anywhere else on Lake Cascade. This is an uncommon find that must be seen in person to fully appreciate the setting and possibilities. Even more, the neighboring 1+ acre property is also available offering the opportunity to own all 6 of the only developed lots in this exclusive area and build up to 3 more homes! A truly once in a lifetime chance to secure a private enclave or family compound to be cherished for generations to come. Don't miss out on this exceptional property!

16. 2026-04-10
    listed $299,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (827 chars)

    EXPANSIVE VIEWS OF LAKE CASCADE! This unique offering features a small home that provides the perfect opportunity to renovate or completely rebuild to create your dream retreat. Bordering ranch land and National Forest, the setting offers privacy, open space, and an unmatched sense of seclusion while showcasing breathtaking lake views not seen anywhere else on Lake Cascade. This is an uncommon find that must be seen in person to fully appreciate the setting and possibilities. Even more, the neighboring 1+ acre property is also available offering the opportunity to own all 6 of the only developed lots in this exclusive area and build up to 3 more homes! A truly once in a lifetime chance to secure a private enclave or family compound to be cherished for generations to come. Don't miss out on this exceptional property!

17. 2024-07-08
    historical
18. 2024-06-28
    price $373,000
19. 2024-06-07
    listed $435,000 Active
20. 2022-07-22
    soldstatus
21. 2022-07-22
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2022-07-22
    soldstatus
23. 2022-07-12
    status Pending
24. 2022-06-16
    listed $375,000
25. 2022-06-16
    listed $375,000 Active
26. 2019-07-30
    soldstatus
27. 2019-07-12
    soldstatus
28. 2019-04-26
    listed $129,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ID · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $788 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,063 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,275/yr (+$106/mo · 161.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥88°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,503
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$788
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,520
• − Management: −$2,520
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$1,267
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$304
• After-tax cash flow: $4,093/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cascade District
• NCES district ID: 1600630
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,227
• Composite: 36.83/100
• National rank: #9162
• State rank: #94 of 133 in ID

Livability — Cascade

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #116
• US rank: #12378

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,997

Population outlook (Valley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,964 people
• By 2030: 11,279 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,584 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 11,754 · +7.2%
• By 2075: 12,246 · +11.7%
• By 2100: 11,948 · +9.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Dutch 6% Portuguese 5%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Valley

• 2024 margin: R (+18.6) · D 39.6% · R 58.2% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.6 2020: R+13.7 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+11.6 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.61%
• Current HPI: 307.0117
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

+130.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $299,000 MCAOR
• 2026-04-10 Listed $299,000 IMLS
• 2024-07-08 Listing Removed — IMLS
• 2024-06-28 Price Changed $373,000 IMLS
• 2024-06-07 Listed $435,000 IMLS
• 2022-07-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-07-22 Sold (MLS) — IMLS
• 2022-07-22 Sold (MLS) — MCAOR
• 2022-07-12 Pending — IMLS
• 2022-06-16 Listed $375,000 IMLS
• 2022-06-16 Listed $375,000 MCAOR
• 2019-07-30 Sold (MLS) — IMLS
• 2019-07-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-04-26 Listed $129,900 IMLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $788 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.