205 Arnold Ave · Portland, ND 58274

$175,000

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,821 sqft · SingleFamily · 58 Days on market

Built 1995 2.07 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Key facts

• 2.07 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1995

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with gravel access; 2-car garage (garage approx. 36x28)
• Utilities: City sewer (in street); Propane fuel
• Home design: Residential property; One level (main living on a single level); Above- and below-grade finished areas present
• Construction: Poured concrete foundation; Foundation area noted
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Main-level kitchen
• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms (multiple bedrooms on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 three-quarter bathroom; 1 half bathroom; Primary bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Hot water heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished full basement; Basement is full and finished; Electric fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level and in the basement; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#96 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• May-Port Cg 14 (rural): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #19 of 53 in ND (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Peter Boe Jr Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #39 of 236 statewide, top 21%, 262 students, 21% FRL); May-Port Cg Middle School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #24 of 35 statewide, top 71%, 114 students, 18% FRL); May-Port Cg High School (math 24% / reading 64%, grade F, #33 of 144 statewide, top 32%, 132 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 19% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Traill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Traill County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $137,921 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.68%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $32,309
• Equity at exit: $100,770

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $105,362
• Equity at exit: $175,253

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58274

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,379 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,990/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $-150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,569

Max offer price $148,458

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-51	-5% $-101	+0% $-150	+5% $-200	+10% $-249
Rent	-10% $-259	-5% $-205	+0% $-150	+5% $-96	+10% $-41
Rate	-1.0pp $-62	-0.5pp $-106	base $-150	+0.5pp $-196	+1.0pp $-242

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $175,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $175,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    listed $189,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,990 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,990 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,551
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,990
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,324
• − Management: −$1,324
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$4,856
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,166
• After-tax cash flow: $-637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: May-Port Cg 14
• NCES district ID: 3800041
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,978
• Composite: 39.53/100
• National rank: #3944
• State rank: #19 of 53 in ND

Livability — Portland

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #8317

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Portland, ND
• Population (ZIP): 895

Population outlook (Traill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,107 people
• By 2030: 8,099 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 8,151 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 8,384 · +3.4%
• By 2075: 9,868 · +21.7%
• By 2100: 12,181 · +50.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 46% Scottish 5% Iranian 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Traill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.3% · R 65.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.8pp toward R · 2008: 7.2pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+24.9 2016: R+26.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.15%
• Current HPI: 127.9784
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $189,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,990 · -23.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.