15742 SW 37th Cir · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$299,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,865 sqft · Land · 139 Days on market

Built 2025 0.29 ac lot $160/sqft · at area comps Est $288k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Highly motivated seller offering $5,000 toward buyer’s closing costs! Take advantage of this great incentive and schedule your showing today. Modern design and buyer incentives available. This newly constructed home stands out with its striking architecture and thoughtfully designed interior, offering a great opportunity to own a stylish, move-in-ready home in Ocala. Inside, a bright open-concept layout creates a seamless connection between living spaces, enhanced by expansive windows that bring in natural light and highlight the home’s clean lines and contemporary finishes. Designed for comfort and functionality, this home is ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The four spacious bedrooms provide privacy and flexibility, while the baths feature refined details, premium fixtures and a modern, elevated feel. Ample storage throughout adds to the home’s practicality. Added value for buyers with seller incentives available, ask for details. Potential for reduced upfront costs. Move-in ready new construction. Includes one-year workmanship and seven-year structural warranty for added peace of mind. A standout home in today’s market so schedule your private showing today.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-171 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (32.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (32.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1355 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $299k implies a 938% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,069 (32.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.45%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $287,818
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: 3.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-65,440
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-94,607
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1355
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,031 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $992/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,247

Max offer price $268,797

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15712 SW 37th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1822	$1,850	$1.02	21d	1	0.07mi
15568 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,200	$1.20	13d	1	0.37mi
16090 SW 42nd Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	13d	1	0.47mi
16094 SW 42nd Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	13d	1	0.49mi
4605 SW 158th Street Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,695	$0.99	21d	1	0.50mi
15831 SW 34th Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,715	$1.22	13d	1	0.63mi
4484 SW 151st St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,750	$1.11	21d	1	0.63mi
15415 SW 34th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,895	$1.15	21d	1	0.64mi
422 Marion Oaks Crse Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,900	$1.20	13d	1	0.65mi
333 Marion Oaks Golf Way Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,695	$1.05	13d	1	0.69mi
16090 SW 35th Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1799	$1,950	$1.08	13d	1	0.70mi
16100 SW 35th Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,750	$1.11	13d	1	0.72mi
2211 SW 153rd Place Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,000	$1.16	21d	1	0.73mi
14919 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1870	$2,000	$1.07	13d	1	0.74mi
4572 SW 149th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,950	$1.11	21d	1	0.75mi
3500 SW 150th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1789	$1,750	$0.98	13d	1	0.81mi
15760 SW 55th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$2,000	$1.32	21d	1	0.84mi
14965 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1342	$1,700	$1.27	13d	1	0.88mi
15018 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,625	$1.15	13d	1	0.90mi
5029 SW 155th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,899	$1.06	13d	1	0.90mi
15209 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1691	$1,650	$0.98	21d	1	0.93mi
5077 SW 155th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1761	$2,045	$1.16	13d	1	0.96mi
393 Marion Oaks Golf Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	13d	1	0.99mi
5141 SW 157th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,899	$1.06	13d	1	0.99mi
14843 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1573	$1,725	$1.10	21d	1	1.02mi
4967 SW 150th Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,950	$1.15	21d	1	1.03mi
15944 SW 53rd Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,850	$1.40	21d	1	1.06mi
576 Marion Oaks Mnr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,845	$1.08	13d	1	1.06mi
15713 SW 49th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,899	$1.06	13d	1	1.07mi
15434 SW 29th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,780	$1.27	13d	1	1.07mi
16292 SW 30th Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,650	$1.11	21d	1	1.09mi
14525 SW 42nd Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,850	$1.38	13d	1	1.11mi
16015 SW 29th Court Rd Unit 2 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,450	$1.10	21d	1	1.12mi
15962 SW 53rd Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,800	$1.30	13d	1	1.12mi
267 Marion Oaks Golf Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,799	$1.14	13d	1	1.14mi
550 Marion Oaks Blvd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,850	$1.17	13d	1	1.24mi
2836 SW 161st Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,675	$1.23	13d	1	1.25mi
2725 SW 158th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$2,000	$1.27	13d	1	1.25mi
566 Marion Oaks Blvd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,100	$1.17	13d	1	1.26mi
2673 SW 156th Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,950	$1.05	13d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 131 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-04-10
    status Active 1214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1214 chars)

    Highly motivated seller offering $5,000 toward buyer’s closing costs! Take advantage of this great incentive and schedule your showing today. Modern design and buyer incentives available. This newly constructed home stands out with its striking architecture and thoughtfully designed interior, offering a great opportunity to own a stylish, move-in-ready home in Ocala. Inside, a bright open-concept layout creates a seamless connection between living spaces, enhanced by expansive windows that bring in natural light and highlight the home’s clean lines and contemporary finishes. Designed for comfort and functionality, this home is ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The four spacious bedrooms provide privacy and flexibility, while the baths feature refined details, premium fixtures and a modern, elevated feel. Ample storage throughout adds to the home’s practicality. Added value for buyers with seller incentives available, ask for details. Potential for reduced upfront costs. Move-in ready new construction. Includes one-year workmanship and seven-year structural warranty for added peace of mind. A standout home in today’s market so schedule your private showing today.

16. 2026-04-08
    price $310,000 1214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1214 chars)

    Highly motivated seller offering $5,000 toward buyer’s closing costs! Take advantage of this great incentive and schedule your showing today. Modern design and buyer incentives available. This newly constructed home stands out with its striking architecture and thoughtfully designed interior, offering a great opportunity to own a stylish, move-in-ready home in Ocala. Inside, a bright open-concept layout creates a seamless connection between living spaces, enhanced by expansive windows that bring in natural light and highlight the home’s clean lines and contemporary finishes. Designed for comfort and functionality, this home is ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The four spacious bedrooms provide privacy and flexibility, while the baths feature refined details, premium fixtures and a modern, elevated feel. Ample storage throughout adds to the home’s practicality. Added value for buyers with seller incentives available, ask for details. Potential for reduced upfront costs. Move-in ready new construction. Includes one-year workmanship and seven-year structural warranty for added peace of mind. A standout home in today’s market so schedule your private showing today.

17. 2026-03-03
    price $312,000 1214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1214 chars)

    Highly motivated seller offering $5,000 toward buyer’s closing costs! Take advantage of this great incentive and schedule your showing today. Modern design and buyer incentives available. This newly constructed home stands out with its striking architecture and thoughtfully designed interior, offering a great opportunity to own a stylish, move-in-ready home in Ocala. Inside, a bright open-concept layout creates a seamless connection between living spaces, enhanced by expansive windows that bring in natural light and highlight the home’s clean lines and contemporary finishes. Designed for comfort and functionality, this home is ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The four spacious bedrooms provide privacy and flexibility, while the baths feature refined details, premium fixtures and a modern, elevated feel. Ample storage throughout adds to the home’s practicality. Added value for buyers with seller incentives available, ask for details. Potential for reduced upfront costs. Move-in ready new construction. Includes one-year workmanship and seven-year structural warranty for added peace of mind. A standout home in today’s market so schedule your private showing today.

18. 2026-01-28
    listed $315,000 Active 1214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1214 chars)

    Highly motivated seller offering $5,000 toward buyer’s closing costs! Take advantage of this great incentive and schedule your showing today. Modern design and buyer incentives available. This newly constructed home stands out with its striking architecture and thoughtfully designed interior, offering a great opportunity to own a stylish, move-in-ready home in Ocala. Inside, a bright open-concept layout creates a seamless connection between living spaces, enhanced by expansive windows that bring in natural light and highlight the home’s clean lines and contemporary finishes. Designed for comfort and functionality, this home is ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The four spacious bedrooms provide privacy and flexibility, while the baths feature refined details, premium fixtures and a modern, elevated feel. Ample storage throughout adds to the home’s practicality. Added value for buyers with seller incentives available, ask for details. Potential for reduced upfront costs. Move-in ready new construction. Includes one-year workmanship and seven-year structural warranty for added peace of mind. A standout home in today’s market so schedule your private showing today.

19. 2003-03-14
    soldstatus $28,800
20. 2003-03-14
    soldstatus $28,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $992 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,482 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,490/yr (+$124/mo · 150.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,368
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$992
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,949
• − Management: −$1,949
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$7,464
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,791
• After-tax cash flow: $-260/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+976.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $310,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $312,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Listed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $28,800 Public Records
• 2003-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $28,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $992 · +184.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.