56 Woodcliff Trl · Baiting Hollow, NY 11933

$79,999

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 170 Days on market

Built 1950 2,178 sqft lot $63/sqft · 72% below area Est $145k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy the best of East End living in this charming seasonal duplex cottage nestled within the Woodcliff Park community. Available from April 15th through October 15th, this retreat offers a spacious deck perfect for morning coffee, summer gatherings, and relaxing evenings. Land is leased. Ideally located just minutes from beaches, dining, wineries, and all the coastal attractions Long Island’s East End is known for—your perfect seasonal escape awaits. Cash Only Sales

Key facts

• Minutes from beaches
• Spacious deck
• Coastal attractions

Tags

• SEASONAL DUPLEX COTTAGE
• SPACIOUS DECK
• WOODCLIFF PARK COMMUNITY
• MINUTES FROM BEACHES
• COASTAL ATTRACTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($34k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 48.7% vs local median 5.3% in Baiting Hollow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#953 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,399 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 48.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 151.42%
• DSCR: 7.74
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,800
• List price: $79,999
• Delta: -44.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.52×
• Total profit: $190,902
• Equity at exit: $37,146

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.03×
• Total profit: $426,161
• Equity at exit: $58,177

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,435 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,689/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$931
• Net cashflow: $2,826

Break-even live

Break-even rent $857

Max offer price $79,999

Occupancy floor 31%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,872	-5% $2,849	+0% $2,826	+5% $2,804	+10% $2,781
Rent	-10% $2,476	-5% $2,651	+0% $2,826	+5% $3,002	+10% $3,177
Rate	-1.0pp $2,867	-0.5pp $2,847	base $2,826	+0.5pp $2,806	+1.0pp $2,785

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,999 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,999 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $79,999 Active 166 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 165 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 164 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 158 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 157 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 153 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 152 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 151 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 150 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 149 DOM
15. 2026-01-02
    listed $99,000 Active 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    Enjoy the best of East End living in this charming seasonal duplex cottage nestled within the Woodcliff Park community. Available from April 15th through October 15th, this retreat offers a spacious deck perfect for morning coffee, summer gatherings, and relaxing evenings. Land is leased. Ideally located just minutes from beaches, dining, wineries, and all the coastal attractions Long Island’s East End is known for—your perfect seasonal escape awaits. Cash Only Sales

16. 2025-12-29
    historical
17. 2025-11-03
    status Active
18. 2025-11-01
    historical
19. 2025-09-28
    price $99,000
20. 2025-05-30
    price $115,000
21. 2024-10-02
    price $125,000
22. 2024-10-02
    listed $120,000 Active
23. 2024-10-02
    historical
24. 2021-08-27
    soldstatus $70,000 Closed
25. 2021-08-06
    status Active
26. 2021-08-05
    historical
27. 2021-07-02
    status Active
28. 2021-07-01
    historical
29. 2021-06-23
    price $85,000
30. 2020-07-02
    listed $94,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,689 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,689 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$2,689
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,257
• − Management: −$4,257
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $34,804
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,353
• After-tax cash flow: $25,564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Baiting Hollow

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #953
• US rank: #18639

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baiting Hollow, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+4.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-02 Listed $99,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-29 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-28 Price Changed $99,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-30 Price Changed $115,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-02 Price Changed $125,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-02 Listed $120,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-02 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-27 Sold (MLS) $70,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-05 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-02 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-23 Price Changed $85,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-02 Listed $94,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,689 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.