3824 Polo Club Blvd · Lexington-Fayette, KY 40509

$292,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,808 sqft · Townhouse public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2005 1,742 sqft lot Est $251k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained home in the desirable Hamburg area offering 3 bedrooms and 2 and a half baths with a functional, spacious layout. The main level features a great room with tray ceiling and electric fireplace, along with a kitchen with granite countertops, updated lighting and plumbing fixtures, and an eat-in area. First-floor primary suite with private bath and access to a fenced courtyard. Separate laundry room on the main level. Upstairs includes two large bedrooms with vaulted ceilings connected by a Jack & Jill bath, plus excellent closet space (one bedroom features three closets). Additional highlights include LVP flooring, abundant storage, and two covered parking spaces. Conven

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2005
• Listed 40 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area: 1,951; Lot size approximately 0.04 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family property; Located on a corner lot; Subdivision: Creekside At Andover
• Construction: Brick veneer construction
• Exterior features: Brick veneer exterior; Block foundation

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Cooktop; Range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 4
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Fireplace; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $292k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($657/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fayette County (urban): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #27 of 165 in KY (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Athens-Chilesburg Elementary (math 65% / reading 70%, grade B+, #12 of 676 statewide, top 2%, 533 students, 17% FRL); Edythe Jones Hayes Middle School (math 47% / reading 60%, grade C+, #13 of 217 statewide, top 6%, 1,081 students, 37% FRL); Henry Clay High School (math 43% / reading 49%, grade D-, #20 of 254 statewide, top 8%, 2,031 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Fayette County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,036 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (542 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fayette County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($283k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $229,250 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.80%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $251,312
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1104 Oatlands Park	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,808 (0%)	10mo	$252,000	$139	88
3826 Polo Club Blvd	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,808 (0%)	23mo	$285,000	$158	80
1118 Oatlands Park	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,950 (+8%)	20mo	$260,000	$133	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-45,741
• Equity at exit: $43,538

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-43,064
• Equity at exit: $25,247

Cash invested: $81,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40509

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,292 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,531
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,240/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,223

Max offer price $292,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $220	-5% $137	+0% $55	+5% $-28	+10% $-111
Rent	-10% $-126	-5% $-36	+0% $55	+5% $145	+10% $236
Rate	-1.0pp $202	-0.5pp $129	base $55	+0.5pp $-21	+1.0pp $-98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,000
• Closing costs: $8,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4176 Todds Rd Lexington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1245	$2,100	$1.69	15d	15	0.24mi
3548 Stolen Horse Trce Lexington, KY	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,995	$1.20	25d	1	0.71mi
3644 Iron Lace Dr Lexington, KY	4.0	2.5	1688	$2,295	$1.36	15d	1	0.71mi
4636 Marcus Trl Lexington, KY	4.0	2.5	2440	$2,500	$1.02	15d	1	1.09mi
467 Hays Blvd Lexington, KY	2.0–3.0	2.5	1436	$1,947	$1.36	15d	3	1.10mi
1409 Pleasant Ridge Dr Lexington, KY	4.0	2.5	1694	$3,250	$1.92	25d	1	1.28mi
421 Forest Hill Dr Lexington, KY	3.0	2.5	2151	$2,295	$1.07	25d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $292,000 Pending 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $292,000 Contingent 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $292,000 Contingent 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $292,000 Contingent 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $292,000 Contingent 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $292,000 Contingent 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $292,000 Contingent 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $292,000 Contingent 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $292,000 Contingent 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $292,000 Contingent 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $292,000 Contingent 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $292,000 Contingent 26 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $292,000 Contingent 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    historical Contingent
15. 2026-05-06
    listed $292,000 Active
16. 2024-11-26
    soldstatus $285,000
17. 2024-11-04
    soldstatus $285,000
18. 2024-10-01
    soldstatus $285,000 Closed
19. 2024-08-14
    listed $285,000 Active
20. 2016-02-26
    soldstatus $500,000
21. 2015-01-22
    historical
22. 2013-04-22
    listed $144,900
23. 2013-03-21
    soldstatus $609,583
24. 2007-06-05
    historical
25. 2006-08-03
    listed $139,900
26. 2005-02-24
    historical
27. 2005-01-10
    listed $136,900
28. 2005-01-10
    historical
29. 2004-03-15
    listed $136,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,240 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,511 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,271/yr (+$106/mo · 102.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,357
• − Property taxes: −$1,240
• − Insurance: −$1,460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,201
• − Management: −$2,201
• − Depreciation: −$8,495
• Taxable loss: −$4,443
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,066
• After-tax cash flow: $1,723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fayette County
• NCES district ID: 2101860
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,245
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5211
• State rank: #27 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lexington-Fayette

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• County: Fayette County · 317,143 people
• City population: 321,882
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 47,036
• Household income: $94,804
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1763.0

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 363,454 people
• By 2030: 388,270 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 438,688 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 490,667 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 625,394 · +72.1%
• By 2100: 721,354 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 14% Two or more races 8% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: D (+18.1) · D 58.0% · R 39.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.3pp toward D · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: 18.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.1 2020: D+20.8 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.72%
• Current HPI: 226.8663
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.22%
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+113.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Contingent — ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $292,000 ImagineMLS
• 2024-11-26 Sold (Public Records) $285,000 Public Records
• 2024-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $285,000 Public Records
• 2024-10-01 Sold (MLS) $285,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-08-14 Listed $285,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2016-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $500,000 Public Records
• 2015-01-22 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2013-04-22 Listed $144,900 ImagineMLS
• 2013-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $609,583 Public Records
• 2007-06-05 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2006-08-03 Listed $139,900 ImagineMLS
• 2005-02-24 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2005-01-10 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2005-01-10 Listed $136,900 ImagineMLS
• 2004-03-15 Listed $136,900 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

-10.5%/yr

Latest (2015): $1,240 · -10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.