1201 S 21st St · Temple, TX 76504

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 229 Days on market

Built 1980 5,501 sqft lot Est $150k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 5,501 sq ft lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 229 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer (not connected at lot)
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: HardiPlank lap siding; Composition/shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; City lot with mature trees; City street frontage; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Bedrooms: Living Room listed as a room
• Flooring: Laminate floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; One cooling unit
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($460/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.6% in Temple — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#122 in TX, #3,814 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D+.
• Temple ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #590 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 278 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 229 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 229 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.13%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $149,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
918 S 19th St	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,128 (-2%)	7mo	$89,000	$79	75
1001 S 29th St	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-6%)	4mo	$107,000	$99	72
920 S 33rd St	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,104 (-4%)	1mo	$99,000	$90	70
1718 S 15th St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,116 (-3%)	8mo	$165,000	$148	66
1202 S 7th St	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,064 (-8%)	4mo	$139,000	$131	61
1014 S 3rd St	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,199 (+4%)	5mo	$78,999	$66	56
1514 S 13th St	0.31mi	3/1.0	999 (-13%)	9mo	$150,000	$150	55
1014 S 29th St	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	981 (-15%)	1mo	$60,000	$61	54
2014 S 9th St	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,112 (-4%)	7mo	$145,000	$130	52
914 S 2nd St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,081 (-6%)	1mo	$165,000	$153	52
1418 S 3rd St	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,272 (+10%)	4mo	$164,000	$129	48
1405 S 39th St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,005 (-13%)	0mo	$165,000	$164	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-24,529
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-31,723
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76504

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,339 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,388/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,291

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $120	-5% $79	+0% $38	+5% $-3	+10% $-44
Rent	-10% $-67	-5% $-15	+0% $38	+5% $91	+10% $144
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $75	base $38	+0.5pp $1	+1.0pp $-37

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 S 21st St Temple, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	45d	1	0.10mi
1205 S 17th St Temple, TX	2.0	1.0	840	$625	$0.74	25d	1	0.12mi
1201 S 25th St Temple, TX	2.0	1.0	852	$1,265	$1.48	25d	1	0.14mi
902 S 23rd St Temple, TX	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	25d	1	0.20mi
806 S 23rd St Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,445	$1.45	15d	1	0.26mi
1001 S 29th St Temple, TX	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,400	$1.30	25d	1	0.30mi
1117 S 9th St Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	25d	1	0.37mi
1511 S 11th St Temple, TX	2.0	1.0	735	$1,095	$1.49	15d	1	0.39mi
1107 S 33rd St Unit B Temple, TX	2.0	2.0	1009	$1,150	$1.14	15d	1	0.42mi
1615 S 11th St Temple, TX	2.0	1.0	1076	$1,995	$1.85	15d	1	0.44mi
1518 S 7th St Temple, TX	2.0	1.0	965	$1,100	$1.14	25d	1	0.47mi
1809 S 13th St Temple, TX	3.0	1.5	1172	$1,350	$1.15	45d	1	0.50mi
1407 S 5th St Temple, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,465	$1.13	15d	1	0.53mi
1409 S 35th St Temple, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	45d	1	0.53mi
420 S 27th St Temple, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	15d	1	0.55mi
1101 S 3rd St Temple, TX	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,200	$0.85	25d	1	0.55mi
1802 West Avenue H Unit D Temple, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	45d	1	0.58mi
1321 S 39th St Temple, TX	2.0	2.0	1006	$1,200	$1.19	45d	1	0.64mi
1606 S 37th St Temple, TX	2.0	1.0	1264	$1,400	$1.11	45d	1	0.66mi
2017 S 13th St Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1429	$1,525	$1.07	25d	1	0.66mi
2007 S 9th St Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,398	$0.94	15d	1	0.68mi
1609 S 39th St Temple, TX	3.0	1.0	1207	$1,500	$1.24	45d	1	0.70mi
1002 S 2nd St Temple, TX	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,325	$1.25	23d	1	0.71mi
1519 S 43rd St Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,595	$1.14	15d	1	0.81mi
2110 S 5th St Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1194	$1,195	$1.00	45d	1	0.81mi
2012 S 31st St Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,919	$1.51	45d	1	0.82mi
1508 S 43rd St Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,495	$1.28	45d	1	0.83mi
814 S Martin Luther King Blvd Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1035	$1,100	$1.06	15d	1	0.90mi
2405 S 13th St Temple, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,065	$1.28	15d	4	0.90mi
2102 Scott Blvd Temple, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	924	$2,165	$2.34	15d	22	0.90mi
1407 Martin Luther King Junior Ln Unit A Temple, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,700	$1.31	45d	1	0.92mi
1401 S 47th St Temple, TX	3.0	1.0	1204	$1,395	$1.16	45d	1	0.92mi
1817 S 45th St Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,495	$1.16	25d	1	0.97mi
1219 S 10th St Temple, TX	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,050	$0.97	45d	1	0.98mi
1214 S 12th St Unit 12th St unit 1214 A Temple, TX	3.0	2.5	1355	$1,475	$1.09	45d	1	1.00mi
1020 S 12th St Unit 12th St unit 1020 A Temple, TX	3.0	2.5	1355	$1,475	$1.09	45d	1	1.00mi
205 N 21st St Temple, TX	3.0	1.0	950	$998	$1.05	45d	1	1.02mi
640 SW H K Dodgen Loop Temple, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	857	$1,899	$2.22	15d	1	1.03mi
603 East Avenue M Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	1.0	900	$945	$1.05	45d	1	1.06mi
2510 S 31st St Temple, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,640	$1.66	15d	26	1.07mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $145,000 Active 229 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 226 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 225 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 224 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 223 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 221 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 218 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 217 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 216 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 215 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 211 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 210 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 209 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 208 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 207 DOM
16. 2026-05-28
    status Active
17. 2026-05-28
    price $145,000
18. 2026-04-30
    historical
19. 2026-03-25
    price $147,000
20. 2025-10-07
    listed $149,500 Active
21. 2025-06-30
    historical
22. 2025-04-16
    status Active
23. 2025-02-18
    price $152,000
24. 2025-02-04
    price $159,500
25. 2025-01-20
    price $164,500
26. 2025-01-03
    listed $174,500 Active
27. 2022-01-11
    soldstatus
28. 2021-08-11
    soldstatus
29. 2020-10-29
    soldstatus
30. 2020-09-30
    status Pending
31. 2020-09-26
    status Active
32. 2020-09-14
    historical
33. 2020-09-14
    listed $58,000
34. 1991-01-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,388 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,654 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$266/yr (+$22/mo · 11.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,073
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,388
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,286
• − Management: −$1,286
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$1,952
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$469
• After-tax cash flow: $928/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Temple ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842330
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,120
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7123
• State rank: #590 of 826 in TX

Livability — Temple

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #3814

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Temple, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 96,587
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,166
• Household income: $52,803
• Rent vs Own: 68.6% rent · 31.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1489.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 15% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -159.28%
• Current HPI: 186.1148
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.33%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $145,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $147,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-10-07 Listed $149,500 CTXMLS
• 2025-06-30 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-04-16 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2025-02-18 Price Changed $152,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-02-04 Price Changed $159,500 CTXMLS
• 2025-01-20 Price Changed $164,500 CTXMLS
• 2025-01-03 Listed $174,500 CTXMLS
• 2022-01-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-08-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-09-30 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2020-09-26 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2020-09-14 Listed $58,000 CTXMLS
• 2020-09-14 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 1991-01-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,388 · -40.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.