23 Union St · Auburn, NY 13021

$150,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,688 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1930 5,271 sqft lot Est $176k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this move in ready 4 bed 1.5 bath home just over a block's walk away from Casey Park. You will find high ceilings and beautiful mahogany woodwork throughout. Enclosed porches on the front and back of this home as well as a wooden deck that has a staircase leading to your fully fenced in backyard below. There is plenty of room for storage in the attic as well as the full basement which has over 9ft ceilings.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Inviting front porch
• Unfinished attic

Tags

• RICH MAHOGANY WOODWORK
• INVITING FRONT PORCH
• LARGE DECK
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• UNFINISHED ATTIC
• EASY ACCESS TO GREEN SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($819/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (2.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#298 in NY, #4,814 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities D-, commute F.
• Auburn City School District (town): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #558 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 221 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 161 units permitted in Cayuga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cayuga County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $146,965 (2.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.95%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,552
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23 Chase St	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,652 (-2%)	2mo	$165,000	$100	85
21 Union St	0.01mi	3/1.5	1,506 (-11%)	6mo	$169,950	$113	77
130 North St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,789 (+6%)	2mo	$198,000	$111	62
75 Van Anden St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,519 (-10%)	2mo	$50,000	$33	60
92 Nelson St	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,667 (-1%)	9mo	$155,000	$93	58
17 Case Ave	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,804 (+7%)	3mo	$225,000	$125	50
183 Van Anden St	0.56mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,857 (+10%)	4mo	$164,300	$88	47
266 Seymour St	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,482 (-12%)	9mo	$40,000	$27	43
4 Case Ave	0.56mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,485 (-12%)	8mo	$189,900	$128	42
34 Liberty St	0.65mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,464 (-13%)	3mo	$135,000	$92	40
29 Liberty St	0.64mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,470 (-13%)	8mo	$153,300	$104	37
37 Peacock St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,440 (-15%)	9mo	$169,000	$117	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-19,900
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-11,498
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13021

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,470 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,923/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,383

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $153	-5% $111	+0% $68	+5% $26	+10% $-17
Rent	-10% $-48	-5% $10	+0% $68	+5% $126	+10% $184
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $106	base $68	+0.5pp $29	+1.0pp $-10

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
78 Chedell Pl Auburn, NY	2.0	1.0	2096	$1,100	$0.52	44d	1	1.18mi
5 Sheridan St Auburn, NY	4.0	2.0	1788	$1,995	$1.12	44d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-22
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-16
   listed $150,000 Active
4. 2021-09-22
   soldstatus $115,000 Closed Sale or Rented 420-char remark

   Show marketing remark (420 chars)

   Come see this move in ready 4 bed 1.5 bath home just over a block's walk away from Casey Park. You will find high ceilings and beautiful mahogany woodwork throughout. Enclosed porches on the front and back of this home as well as a wooden deck that has a staircase leading to your fully fenced in backyard below. There is plenty of room for storage in the attic as well as the full basement which has over 9ft ceilings.

5. 2021-08-16
   status Pending Sale 420-char remark

   Show marketing remark (420 chars)

   Come see this move in ready 4 bed 1.5 bath home just over a block's walk away from Casey Park. You will find high ceilings and beautiful mahogany woodwork throughout. Enclosed porches on the front and back of this home as well as a wooden deck that has a staircase leading to your fully fenced in backyard below. There is plenty of room for storage in the attic as well as the full basement which has over 9ft ceilings.

6. 2021-07-06
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 420-char remark

   Show marketing remark (420 chars)

   Come see this move in ready 4 bed 1.5 bath home just over a block's walk away from Casey Park. You will find high ceilings and beautiful mahogany woodwork throughout. Enclosed porches on the front and back of this home as well as a wooden deck that has a staircase leading to your fully fenced in backyard below. There is plenty of room for storage in the attic as well as the full basement which has over 9ft ceilings.

7. 2021-07-05
   historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 420-char remark

   Show marketing remark (420 chars)

   Come see this move in ready 4 bed 1.5 bath home just over a block's walk away from Casey Park. You will find high ceilings and beautiful mahogany woodwork throughout. Enclosed porches on the front and back of this home as well as a wooden deck that has a staircase leading to your fully fenced in backyard below. There is plenty of room for storage in the attic as well as the full basement which has over 9ft ceilings.

8. 2021-07-01
   listed $109,000 Active 420-char remark

   Show marketing remark (420 chars)

   Come see this move in ready 4 bed 1.5 bath home just over a block's walk away from Casey Park. You will find high ceilings and beautiful mahogany woodwork throughout. Enclosed porches on the front and back of this home as well as a wooden deck that has a staircase leading to your fully fenced in backyard below. There is plenty of room for storage in the attic as well as the full basement which has over 9ft ceilings.

9. 1994-12-09
   soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,923 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,923 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,923
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,411
• − Management: −$1,411
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,625
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$390
• After-tax cash flow: $1,210/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Auburn City School District
• NCES district ID: 3603480
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,567
• Composite: 29.71/100
• National rank: #6452
• State rank: #558 of 590 in NY

Livability — Auburn

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #298
• US rank: #4814

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auburn, NY
• County: Cayuga County · 37,247 people
• City population: 37,247
• Metro: Auburn, NY
• Population (ZIP): 37,247
• Household income: $60,712
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1449.0

Population outlook (Cayuga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 74,820 people
• By 2030: 72,402 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 66,917 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 61,007 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 48,047 · -35.8%
• By 2100: 34,512 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Subsaharan African 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cayuga

• 2024 margin: R (+13.0) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.5pp · 2024: -13.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.0 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.2 2012: D+10.8 2008: D+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.53%
• Current HPI: 338.5537
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Auburn, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+172.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-22 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $150,000 CNYIS
• 2021-09-22 Sold (MLS) $115,000 CNYIS
• 2021-08-16 Pending — CNYIS
• 2021-07-06 Pending — CNYIS
• 2021-07-05 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2021-07-01 Listed $109,000 CNYIS
• 1994-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,923 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.