4231 W Willis · Show Low, AZ 85901

$119,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Manufactured public records · 211 Days on market

Built 1972 5,662 sqft lot $199/sqft · 26% below area Est $161k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What a great opportunity to have your own home in downtown Show Low! Centrally located this can be your personal residence or an investment property if you would like to continue renting to the existing tenant or someone new. Financing is available. This home is close to new restaurants, hiking, golfing and plenty lakes to enjoy. Opportunities include that this home can be used for short-term rental for you investors. The lot size provides plenty of room for cars and off road toys.

Key facts

• 5,662 sq ft lot
• Built 1972
• Listed 210 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $119,500 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$160,823) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $482 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 891 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $826 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.29%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,823
• List price: $119,500
• Delta: -25.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
931 N 43Rd Cul	0.14mi	1/1.0 (-1)	624 (+4%)	4mo	$148,000	$237	78
1106 N 43rd Loop	0.05mi	1/1.0 (-1)	600 (0%)	21mo	$125,000	$208	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $11,279
• Equity at exit: $17,818

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $49,121
• Equity at exit: $10,332

Cash invested: $33,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,492 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $241/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $882

Max offer price $119,500

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,875
• Closing costs: $3,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,500 Active 211 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,500 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,500 Active 209 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,500 Active 208 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,500 Active 207 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,500 Active 205 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,500 Active 204 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,500 Active 201 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,500 Active 200 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,500 Active 199 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,500 Active 198 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,500 Active 195 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,500 Active 194 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,500 Active 193 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,500 Active 192 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,500 Active 191 DOM
17. 2026-03-17
    price $119,500 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    What a great opportunity to have your own home in downtown Show Low! Centrally located this can be your personal residence or an investment property if you would like to continue renting to the existing tenant or someone new. Financing is available. This home is close to new restaurants, hiking, golfing and plenty lakes to enjoy. Opportunities include that this home can be used for short-term rental for you investors. The lot size provides plenty of room for cars and off road toys.

18. 2025-11-20
    listed $130,000 Active 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    What a great opportunity to have your own home in downtown Show Low! Centrally located this can be your personal residence or an investment property if you would like to continue renting to the existing tenant or someone new. Financing is available. This home is close to new restaurants, hiking, golfing and plenty lakes to enjoy. Opportunities include that this home can be used for short-term rental for you investors. The lot size provides plenty of room for cars and off road toys.

19. 2023-08-25
    soldstatus $90,000
20. 2023-08-09
    status Pending Take Backup
21. 2023-08-03
    listed $100,000 Active
22. 2023-08-03
    listed $100,000 Active
23. 2023-08-03
    soldstatus $90,000 Closed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $241 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $789 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$547/yr (+$46/mo · 226.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,903
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,694
• − Property taxes: −$241
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,432
• − Management: −$1,432
• − Depreciation: −$3,476
• Taxable income: $4,029
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$967
• After-tax cash flow: $4,817/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Show Low Unified District (4393)
• NCES district ID: 0407700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,240
• Composite: 29.9/100
• National rank: #6387
• State rank: #89 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Show Low

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #13573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Show Low, AZ
• City population: 18,821
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+32.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $119,500 WMMLS
• 2025-11-20 Listed $130,000 WMMLS
• 2023-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-09 Pending — WMMLS
• 2023-08-03 Listed $100,000 WMMLS
• 2023-08-03 Listed $100,000 ARMLS
• 2023-08-03 Sold (MLS) $90,000 WMMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $241 · +25.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.