3649 Grubbs St · Tangerine, FL 32757

$289,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,276 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2015 6,979 sqft lot $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a 2-car garage located in the Holly Creek community. The home features tile flooring in the kitchen, bathrooms, and dining room. The kitchen includes a pantry and opens to the living area, while the dining room is separate, creating distinct living spaces. The split bedroom floor plan offers added privacy, and the primary bedroom includes an en-suite bath. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways.

Key facts

• Low maintenance yard
• Large island
• Full bath

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ STYLE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• BREAKFAST BAR
• FULL BATH
• LOW MAINTENANCE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($106/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#593 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Zellwood Elementary (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 493 students, 55% FRL); Wolf Lake Middle (math 57% / reading 52%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,194 students, 45% FRL); Apopka High (math 19% / reading 47%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 3,507 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 646 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $205k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,884 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.13%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-52,113
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-67,487
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32757

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 646
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,419 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$246 /mo · $2,954/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,408

Max offer price $289,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $172	-5% $91	+0% $9	+5% $-73	+10% $-155
Rent	-10% $-182	-5% $-87	+0% $9	+5% $104	+10% $200
Rate	-1.0pp $154	-0.5pp $82	base $9	+0.5pp $-66	+1.0pp $-142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7331 Holly St Mount Dora, FL	3.0	2.0	1187	$2,175	$1.83	0d	1	0.29mi
3905 Crimson Clover Dr Mount Dora, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,460	$1.47	0d	1	0.60mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   listed $289,000 Active
3. 2026-01-29
   soldstatus $205,000
4. 2026-01-28
   soldstatus $205,000 Closed 455-char remark

   Show marketing remark (455 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a 2-car garage located in the Holly Creek community. The home features tile flooring in the kitchen, bathrooms, and dining room. The kitchen includes a pantry and opens to the living area, while the dining room is separate, creating distinct living spaces. The split bedroom floor plan offers added privacy, and the primary bedroom includes an en-suite bath. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways.

5. 2025-12-06
   listed $225,000 455-char remark

   Show marketing remark (455 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a 2-car garage located in the Holly Creek community. The home features tile flooring in the kitchen, bathrooms, and dining room. The kitchen includes a pantry and opens to the living area, while the dining room is separate, creating distinct living spaces. The split bedroom floor plan offers added privacy, and the primary bedroom includes an en-suite bath. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways.

6. 2025-12-06
   historical 455-char remark

   Show marketing remark (455 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a 2-car garage located in the Holly Creek community. The home features tile flooring in the kitchen, bathrooms, and dining room. The kitchen includes a pantry and opens to the living area, while the dining room is separate, creating distinct living spaces. The split bedroom floor plan offers added privacy, and the primary bedroom includes an en-suite bath. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,954 · $246/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,954 · $246/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,026
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$2,954
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,322
• − Management: −$2,322
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$4,852
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,165
• After-tax cash flow: $1,270/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tangerine

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #593
• US rank: #11345

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tangerine, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 32,712
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,121
• Household income: $77,216
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 998.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 12% Two or more races 11% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.69%
• Current HPI: 293.4759
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.55%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+28.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Listed $289,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2026-01-28 Sold (MLS) $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-06 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+26.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,954 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.